CoLM 模拟土壤温度和湿度最敏感参数的研究

合理的参数估计是提高陆面模式模拟能力的关键,而其过高的维数极大地增加了合理估计的难度。参数的敏感性分析,旨在针对目标变量找出最敏感的参数,从而实现在有限计算机资源条件下,对参数进行合理估计。本文以Common Land Model(CoLM)为研究对象,利用Morris 方法定性地从40 个参数中筛选出影响土壤温度和土壤湿度的敏感参数,并通过Sobol' 方法从敏感性顺序和各敏感参数的累积贡献率两个方面,对Morris 方法分析结果进行验证。在此基础上,本研究还利用Sobol' 方法对已筛选的参数做定量敏感性分析,最终确定参数的主效应、交互效应和总效应。研究结果表明,Morris 方法可以基于少量样本实现复杂的陆面模式的参数筛选,而Sobol' 方法的结果又从定量的角度描述了每个敏感参数对模型响应的影响程度,并且两种方法结论一致。     

高纬度强对流与对流层上层水汽变化关系的数值模拟研究

应用WRF中尺度模式模拟了发生在黑龙江省西南部的一次区域性暴雨过程,通过云微物理参数化方案的敏感性试验,分析了对流云体中水汽垂直输送特征.结果表明:强对流活动使对流层上层局地水汽平均增加10倍以上,对流活动对于水汽的垂直输送以及对高层水汽含量的改变具有非常显著的作用.云微物理参数化方案,对于整个对流层水汽通量密度变化趋势有较好的表现.在不同方案中,0.5 ～9 km水汽通量密度及24 h总水汽垂直输送量,随高度变化差异较大.这是由平均垂直速度对不同方案敏感性造成的,不同的参数化方案,水汽通量最大值间最多相差可达27.9％.在不同的方案中,对流层上层加湿作用持续时间和对流层上层平均水汽混合比的最大值较敏感:对流活动可造成模拟区域对流层上层增湿持续16 ～20 h不等;对流层上层平均水汽混合比的最大值差异明显,最大可达15.8％.进行24 h平均后,上述物理量对方案的敏感性可减小到8.3％.所以,云微物理方案的不确定性对于暴雨过程的时间尺度是不可忽视的.     

Knowledge,transparency, and refutability in groundwater models,an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

This work demonstrates how available knowledge can be used to build more transparent and refutable computer models of groundwater systems. The Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, which surrounds a proposed site for a high level nuclear waste repository of the United States of America, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), where nuclear weapons were tested, is used to explore model adequacy, identify parameters important to (and informed by) observations, and identify existing old and potential new observations important to predictions. Model development is pursued using a set of fundamental questions addressed with carefully designed metrics. Critical methods include using a hydrogeologic model, managing model nonlinearity by designing models that are robust while maintaining realism, using error-based weighting to combine disparate types of data, and identifying important and unimportant parameters and observations and optimizing parameter values with computationally frugal schemes. The frugal schemes employed in this study require relatively few (10–1000 s), parallelizable model runs. This is beneficial because models able to approximate the complex site geology defensibly tend to have high computational cost. The issue of model defensibility is particularly important given the contentious political issues involved.     

以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例分析地震触发的静态库仑应力计算的不确定性

Static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake slip is frequently used to explain earthquake activities and aftershock distribution.However,some parameters for the Coulomb stress calculation are unable to be well constrained from laboratory experiments and field observations.Different parameters may directly affect the pattern of static Coulomb stress.The static Coulomb stress changes induced by the Wenchuan earthquake calculated by six research groups are not consistent with each other.To investigate how the parameters affect the calculation results,we change the parameters in turn through modeling and compare the results of different calculation parameters.We find that gravity,position and strike of receiver faults have little influence on coseismic Coulomb stress calculations,but other parameters can change the value and sign of the results in various degrees especially around the earthquake rupture plane.Therefore the uncertainty analysis of static Coulomb stress change induced by earthquake should be taken into consideration in the earthquake hazard analysis.     

邓肯-张E-B模型参数对软土路堤沉降计算结果的影响

有限单元法是计算路堤沉降常见的数值计算方法,其土体模型参数的准确性是计算结果可靠性高的保证。邓肯-张E-B模型是岩土工程分析计算中常用的一种非线性弹性模型。本文针对模型参数敏感性进行大量非线性有限元计算,得到了各参数与路堤沉降和侧向位移之间的关系,确定了该模型中影响软基路堤沉降和侧向变形的主要参数。     

泥鳅(Misgurnus anguillicaudatus)病原霍乱弧菌(Vibrio cholerae)PCR 与LAMP检测方法的比较研究

采用分子生物学方法,以霍乱弧菌lolB为靶基因设计特异性引物,进行了霍乱弧菌的PCR和环介导等温核酸扩增(Loop-mediated isothermal amplification,LAMP)检测技术研究,并对它们的特异性、灵敏性和实际应用进行了比较.结果表明,所建立的PCR检测霍乱弧菌的方法最低检测限为4.0× 103 CFU/ml; LAMP检测方法在65℃下恒温扩增60min,检测限为4.0×101 CFU/ml,反应产物加入荧光染料SYBR Green Ⅰ后反应液呈现明显的绿色;以温和气单胞菌、副溶血弧菌、鳗弧菌及美人鱼弧菌为对照菌株,检测结果均为阴性;霍乱弧菌人工染菌的8种水产品进行PCR及LAMP检测,结果均为阳性,而未染菌组均为阴性;PCR及LAMP检测霍乱弧菌的方法均具有灵敏度较高、特异性强等优点,且LAMP检测霍乱弧菌的方法灵敏度是PCR方法的100倍,更适合于养殖现场检测的推广使用.     

Inversion of Scholte wave dispersion and waveform modeling for shallow structure of the Ninetyeast Ridge

The construction of S-wave velocity models of marine sediments down to hundreds of meters below the seafloor is important in a number of disciplines. One of the most significant trends in marine geophysics is to use interface waves to estimate shallow shear velocities which play an important role in determining the shallow crustal structure. In marine settings, the waves trapped near the fluid–solid interface are called Scholte waves, and this is the subject of the study. In 1998, there were experiments on the Ninetyeast Ridge (Central Indian Ocean) to study the shallow seismic structure at the drilled site. The data were acquired by both ocean bottom seismometer and ocean bottom hydrophone. A new type of seafloor implosion sources has been used in this experiment, which successfully excited fast and high frequency (>500 Hz) body waves and slow, intermediate frequency (<20 Hz) Scholte waves. The fundamental and first higher mode Scholte waves have both been excited by the implosion source. Here, the Scholte waves are investigated with a full waveform modeling and a group velocity inversion approach. Shear wave velocities for the uppermost layers of the region are inferred and results from the different methods are compared. We find that the full waveform modeling is important to understand the intrinsic attenuation of the Scholte waves between 1 and 20 Hz. The modeling shows that the S-wave velocity varies from 195 to 350 m/s in the first 16 m of the uppermost layer. Depths levels of high S-wave impedance contrasts compare well to the layer depth derived from a P-wave analysis as well as from drilling data. As expected, the P- to S-wave velocity ratio is very high in the uppermost 16 m of the seafloor and the Poisson ratio is nearly 0.5. Depth levels of high S-wave impedance contrasts are comparable to the layer depth derived from drilling data.     

An approximate Riemann solver for sensitivity equations with discontinuous solutions

The sensitivity of a model output (called a variable) to a parameter can be defined as the partial derivative of the variable with respect to the parameter. When the governing equations are not differentiable with respect to this parameter, problems arise in the numerical solution of the sensitivity equations, such as locally infinite values or instability. An approximate Riemann solver is thus proposed for direct sensitivity calculation for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws in the presence of discontinuous solutions. The proposed approach uses an extra source term in the form of a Dirac function to restore sensitivity balance across the shocks. It is valid for systems such as the Euler equations for gas dynamics or the shallow water equations for free surface flow. The method is first detailed and its application to the shallow water equations is proposed, with some test cases such as dike- or dam-break problems with or without source terms. An application to a two-dimensional flow problem illustrates the superiority of direct sensitivity calculation over the classical empirical approach.     

时间域航空电磁2.5维非线性共轭梯度反演

对于时间域航空电磁法二维和三维反演来说,最大的困难在于有效的算法和大的计算量需求.本文利用非线性共轭梯度法实现了时间域航空电磁法2.5维反演方法,着重解决了迭代反演过程中灵敏度矩阵计算、最佳迭代步长计算、初始模型选取等问题.在正演计算中,我们采用有限元法求解拉式傅氏域中的电磁场偏微分方程,再通过逆拉氏和逆傅氏变换高精度数值算法得到时间域电磁响应.在灵敏度矩阵计算中,采用了基于拉式傅氏双变换的伴随方程法,时间消耗只需计算两次正演,从而节约了大量计算时间.对于最佳步长计算,二次插值向后追踪法能够保证反演迭代的稳定性.设计两个理论模型,检验反演算法的有效性,并讨论了选择不同初始模型对反演结果的影响.模型算例表明:非线性共轭梯度方法应用于时间域航空电磁2.5维反演中稳定可靠,反演结果能够有效地反映地下真实电性结构.当选择的初始模型电阻率值与真实背景电阻率值接近时,能得到较好的反演结果,当初始模型电阻率远大于或远小于真实背景电阻率值时反演效果就会变差.