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41.
Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation. 相似文献
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Steen Christensen Vitaly A. Zlotnik Daniel M. Tartakovsky 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,375(3-4):554-565
We analyze the optimal design of a pumping test for estimating hydrogeologic parameters that are subsequently used to predict stream depletion caused by groundwater pumping in a leaky aquifer. A global optimization method is used to identify the test’s optimal duration and the number and locations of observation wells. The objective is to minimize predictive uncertainty (variance) of the estimated stream depletion, which depends on the sensitivities of depletion and drawdown to relevant hydrogeologic parameters. The sensitivities are computed analytically from the solutions of Zlotnik and Tartakovsky [Zlotnik, V.A., Tartakovsky, D.M., 2008. Stream depletion by groundwater pumping in leaky aquifers. ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 13, 43–50] and the results are presented in a dimensionless form, facilitating their use for planning of pumping test at a variety of sites with similar hydrogeological settings. We show that stream depletion is generally very sensitive to aquitard’s leakage coefficient and stream-bed’s conductance. The optimal number of observation wells is two, their optimal locations are one close to the stream and the other close to the pumping well. We also provide guidelines on the test’s optimal duration and demonstrate that under certain conditions estimation of aquitard’s leakage coefficient and stream-bed’s conductance requires unrealistic test duration and/or signal-to-noise ratio. 相似文献
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本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域. 相似文献
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A sensitivity analysis of Hortonian flow 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
We present a sensitivity analysis for infiltration excess (Hortonian) overland flow based on a classic laboratory experiment by Smith and Woolhiser [Smith RE, Woolhiser DA. Overland flow on an infiltrating surface. Water Resour Res 1971;7(4):899–913]. The model components of the compartment approach are comprised of a diffusive wave approximation to the Saint–Venant equations for overland flow, a Richards model for flow in the variably saturated zone, and an interface coupling concept that combines the two components. In the coupling scheme a hydraulic interface is introduced to allow the definition of an exchange flux between the surface and the unsaturated zone. The effects of friction processes, soil capillarity, hydraulic interface, and vertical soil discretization on both infiltration and runoff prediction are investigated in detail. The corresponding sensitivity analysis is conducted using a small-perturbation method. As a result the importance of the hydraulic processes and related parameters are evaluated for the coupled hydrosystem. 相似文献
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Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results. 相似文献
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应用NCAR的非静力平衡中尺度数值模式MM5V3.6,设计了三种不同土壤湿度对金塔绿洲边界层的特征影响的敏感性试验。结果表明:土壤灌溉后地表温度和气温升温率较灌溉前有所减小。土壤湿度越大,绿洲温度越低,绿洲的“冷岛效应”越显著。绿洲灌溉后地面感热通量较灌溉前偏低,潜热通量比灌溉前高;土壤湿度越大,这种差异越显著。土壤湿度为0.35时,绿洲能够很好地表现绿洲特性,维持其自身的发展。绿洲边界层高度在灌溉前后有很大的变化。随着土壤湿度的增加,绿洲的边界层高度逐渐降低。这种较低的边界层对绿洲起到了保护作用,它将绿洲的能量与水分保存任较低的边界层中,促进了绿洲的进一步维持和发展。 相似文献