地表动量通量对一次华南前汛期降水影响的数值模拟

利用ARPS模式,对一次华南前汛期锋面降水进行了数值模拟和敏感性试验,探讨了动量通量对降水的影响机制。结果表明,去掉地表动量通量对降水率可产生正、反两方面的影响,并大致可分为两个阶段,在积分的前一阶段,动量通量为零区域上空的急流核风速增大,其左前方的辐合区和涡度的强度也相应增大,从而导致降水率增大;而在后一阶段,动量通量为零的区域上空埃克曼抽吸减弱,边界层内的辐合强度和垂直上升运动也相应减弱,从而导致降水率减小。     

土壤湿度年际变化对中国区域极端气候事件模拟的影响研究Ⅱ.敏感性试验分析

利用NCARCAM3.1大气环流模式,设计了有、无土壤湿度年际异常的两组数值试验,探讨了土壤湿度年际异常对极端气候事件模拟的可能影响。结果表明,模式模拟的极端气候事件对土壤湿度异常十分敏感,土壤湿度异常对极端气候指标的多年平均空间分布、年际变率以及年际变化均具有重要影响。当不考虑土壤湿度的年际异常时:(1)模拟的暖夜日数、暖昼日数和热浪持续指数的发生频次在全国范围内均明显减少,而霜冻日数则明显增加。极端降水指标的响应表现出明显的空间差异,极端降水频次在江淮流域明显减小,而极端降水强度则表现为东北减弱、长江流域增强;中雨日数和持续湿期在我国大部分地区减少。(2)极端气温指标的年际变率在我国大部分地区呈减小趋势;而极端降水事件的变化则较为复杂,极端降水频次和极端降水强度的年际变率在长江以南有所增强,而北方地区则有所减弱。中雨日数和持续湿期的年际变率在我国呈现出较为一致的减少趋势。(3)模式对暖夜日数、霜冻日数的年际变化的模拟能力明显下降,并对4个极端降水指标的年际变化的模拟能力在全国多数区域均有不同程度的下降。     

硫酸盐气溶胶间接效应对中国东部冬季气候的影响

气溶胶间接效应通过对云的作用来影响气候,其过程复杂且不确定性较大。本研究利用美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的公共大气模式CAM5.1,通过改变模式中硫酸盐气溶胶转化为云凝结核数浓度的数量,设计了硫酸盐气溶胶间接效应的敏感性试验,通过与控制试验对比来研究其间接效应对中国东部地区冬季云、降水和季风强度的影响。结果表明：在东亚地区云凝结核形成过程中,硫酸盐气溶胶占绝对的主导地位。硫酸盐气溶胶间接效应导致中国东部地区冬季云凝结核和云滴数浓度显著增加,海洋和陆地低层的云滴有效半径减小和总云液水路径的增加,导致了云反照率的增加。引起的负辐射强迫使地表和大气降温,海平面气压升高,增加的海陆气压梯度导致中国南方地区东亚冬季风增强,总降水率减少。硫酸盐气溶胶间接效应可能不是东亚冬季风在20世纪80年代中期年际变率减弱的原因。     

S/P模式计算的冷却塔烟气抬升高度敏感性试验

德国VDI3784的S/P模式为三维流体动力学积分模式,其方程主要描述了无穷小体积元素的质量、动量、静态污染物质量浓度及能量的守恒。利用德国模式进行了冷却塔烟气排放不同参数、不同大气条件下烟气抬升高度的敏感性试验。结果表明：在影响烟气抬升高度的3个气象要素（风速、气温和湿度）中,风速和气温的变化对结果影响较大,而湿度影响较小。在D类稳定度,当环境风速从0.1 m/s增加到15.0 m/s时,抬升高度从711.7 m变为38.5 m。随着环境温度的升高,抬升高度明显单调变小;当稳定度为A类,环境温度从10升到40时,烟气抬升最大高度从688.9 m降低到45.1 m,降低了14倍多。而环境湿度的变化,对抬升高度的影响不是很明显。对于E类稳定度和F类稳定度,当环境湿度从20%增加到70%,最大抬升高度分别从115.3 m和84.6 m降到112.9 m和81.7 m,分别降低了3.43%和2.08%。在影响烟气抬升高度的其他3个因素（凉水塔直径、烟气出口速度和混合气体温度）中,混合气体温度的变化对结果影响较大,而凉水塔直径和烟气出口速度的影响较小。在各类稳定度条件下,当出口温度从20变到90时,烟气抬升高度增加1.2—13.3倍;在各类稳定度条件下,当凉水塔直径从30 m变到90 m,烟气抬升高度仅增加0.63—1.40倍;在各类稳定度条件下,当出口速度从2.5 m/s变到8.0 m/s,烟气抬升高度增加了0.24—0.74倍。     

Characterizing parameter sensitivity and uncertainty for a snow model across hydroclimatic regimes

The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the SNOW17 model to forecast snow accumulation and ablation processes in snow-dominated watersheds nationwide. Successful application of the SNOW17 relies heavily on site-specific estimation of model parameters. The current study undertakes a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of SNOW17 model parameters using forcing and snow water equivalent (SWE) data from 12 sites with differing meteorological and geographic characteristics. The Generalized Sensitivity Analysis and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm are utilized to explore the parameter space and assess model parametric and predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that SNOW17 parameter sensitivity and uncertainty generally varies between sites. Of the six hydroclimatic characteristics studied, only air temperature shows strong correlation with the sensitivity and uncertainty ranges of two parameters, while precipitation is highly correlated with the uncertainty of one parameter. Posterior marginal distributions of two parameters are also shown to be site-dependent in terms of distribution type. The SNOW17 prediction ensembles generated by the DREAM-derived posterior parameter sets contain most of the observed SWE. The proposed uncertainty analysis provides posterior parameter information on parameter uncertainty and distribution types that can serve as a foundation for a data assimilation framework for hydrologic models.     

Sensitivity to space and time resolution of a hydrological model using digital elevation data

The space and time resolutions used for the input variables of a distributed hydrological model have a sufficient impact on the model results. This resolution depends on the required accuracy, experimental site and the processes and variables taken into account in the hydrological model. The influence of space and time resolution is studied here for the case of TOPMODEL, a model based on the variable contributing area concept, applied to an experimental 12 km² catchment (Coët-Dan, Brittany, France) during a two month winter period. A sensitivity analysis to space and time resolution is performed first for input variables derived from the digital elevation data, secondly for the optimized values of the TOPMODEL parameters and finally for modelling efficiency. This analysis clearly shows that a relevant domain of space and time resolutions where efficiency is fairly constant can be defined for the input topographic variables, as opposed to another domain of larger resolutions that induces a strong decrease of modelling efficiency. It also shows that the use of a single set of parameters, defined as mean values of parameters on this relevant domain of resolution, does not modify the accuracy of modelling. The sensitivity of the parameters to space and time resolution allows the physical significance of the parameter values to be discussed.     

Factors affecting performance of permeable groins in channel bank erosion control

The factors affecting the performance of permeable groins are investigated by an analytical approach supplemented with field observation. These factors are broadly divided into three classes: (1) the properties of the soil where the groin is embedded; (2) the flow characteristics of the river channel that are imposed on the groin; and (3) the makeup of the groins. Factors relating to the properties of the soil and flow are then combined into an expression for the factor of safety against failure by overturning. This enables a deterministic sensitivity technique involving partial differentiation of the factor of safety with respect to each contributory factor to be applied. The results obtained show that depth of the groin is the most critical factor that determines groin stability. The depth is followed by flow velocity and discharge, unit weight of water, unit weight of soil, and cohesion. This order of importance agrees with the analysis of observed groin performance in a pilot project at Kaiama in the Niger delta.     

Probabilistic sensitivity and modeling of two-dimensional transport in porous media

A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.     

A GCM Study on the Mechanism of Seasonal Abrupt Changes

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应用GIS进行生态系统对酸雨的相对敏感性分析

对我国东部７省１市进行了生态系统对酸雨的相对敏感性分析。采用ＧＩＳ作为空间分析的工具，综合分析了基岩类型、土壤缓冲能力、植被和土地利用方式，以及土壤水分盈余量等多种要素对酸雨的敏感性。