Discussion on “Correction of soil parameters in calculation of embankment settlement using a BP network back-analysis model” By Zhi-liang Wang, Yong-chi Li, R.F. Shen [Engineering Geology 91 (2007) 168–177]

The paper studied by Yong-chi Li and R.F. Shen (2007) includes some problems regarding the application of the proposed Neural Network (NN) approach. A very limited number of data has been used as testing set (only 3 among 52 data sets) which should be 20–30% of the database. The NN application in the study is not a function approximation problem where same input must always lead to the same output. NNs cannot be used for such an application. Moreover the generalization capability of the NN model has not been investigated. This discussion, aims to points out controversial points of the paper.     

夏季江淮暴雨过程对大尺度湿度场的敏感性试验

用全球谱模式T42L11对1991年6月底至7月初江淮暴雨的中期过程作敏感性试验。结果表明，在初始场中，当印度洋～孟加拉湾高湿中心附近(100°E以西)的水汽减弱后，江淮雨量减少45%，且东亚夏季风环流减弱。若南海～西太平洋高湿中心附近(100°E以东)的水汽减弱时，则东亚夏季风环流反而加强，雨带移向华北。     

汕头东山湖热矿水的物理化学动态及其与地震的关系

文章概述了汕头东山湖高热水化学观测井的地质、水文地质等环境条件，并据实测资料分析认为，该井是震兆反映较灵敏的进中孔，其水化学灵敏震兆组分为Cl^-、HCO3^-、He、H2等多项组分。     

大地电磁资料的灵敏度研究

本文研究了大地电磁资料对地球电性结构模型参数的灵敏度,它在反演解释中具有重要意义.通过研究均匀半空间中视电导率资料的灵敏度函数与计算分析实际观测资料的Fréchet导数和斜率表明,视电导率资料的灵敏度在地表最大,从地表向下呈指数衰减,频率愈高,电导率愈大,衰减也愈快.视电阻率资料和阻抗相位资料对高频、浅层和低阻层具有更高的灵敏度,几何参数的平均灵敏度高于电性参数的平均灵敏度,通常阻抗相位资料比视电阻率资料更灵敏.同时,根据阻抗实部定义的视电阻率与Kunetz定义的时间域大地电磁响应,反映地层电性差异的灵敏度最高. 文章还指出,在实际的反演解释中,如何正确有效地应用阻抗相位资料,提高分辨能力,仍是急待解决的问题.     

LBH—A型氦探测仪及其应用技术

介绍最近改进的LBH-A型氦探测仪的原理、特性、应用技术及应用领域等方而。该仪器是我国第一代能自动计数、控时、报警、接通高压和交直流两用的离子泵型测氦仪。具有探测灵敏度高,读数稳定,测量精确,轻便以及适于野外工作等特点。通过野外取样、样品分析、含量计算及资料处理等系列技术方法的研究,获得了该仪器的一套基本可行的应用技术。该仪器的改进成功地为地质找矿、地震预报、检漏等领域增添了一种先进设备和相应的应用技术。     

Probabilistic sensitivity and modeling of two-dimensional transport in porous media

A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.     

Sensitivity analysis of planetary boundary layer schemes using the WRF model in Northern Colombia during 2016 dry season

This study conducted meteorological simulations in northern Colombia by analyzing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes available in the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study area included three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 18 km, 6 km, and 2 km, with 38 vertical levels. The evolution and structure of the PBL were analyzed during the driest months (March, April, and May 2016) and in regions with the highest particulate matter concentrations. Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model was performed with two local and two non-local PBL schemes. The results were validated using observations of the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and surface wind speed collected from three meteorological stations in the area. The PBL heights were experimentally determined using radiosonde data provided by a station located in the center of the study area. Variations in PBL heights were estimated using linear regression methods and minimization of statistical errors for the bulk Richardson number, as well as analysis of vertical temperature and wind profiles. The WRF model reliably reproduced the daily values and diurnal cycles of temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed within the PBL and accounted for the influence of topography and sea breezes. Horizontal heat advection dominates the upwelling of air masses when sea breezes are active. The onshore wind direction starts to change from east to northwest, implying a decay in the land breeze regime. All schemes overestimate the mixing height and tend to underestimate surface air temperature values at night. All show wetter conditions and underestimate wind speed. Although the non-local Yonsei University (YSU) scheme shows the best performance, it also shows the largest sources of errors when determining the behavior of the surface layer during stable conditions. Relative humidity and wind speed estimates provided by the local Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino (MYNN) scheme were closer to those recorded at the meteorological stations.     

中国MODIS地表温度产品验证

分析了MODIS地表温度产品的误差来源，重点研究利用高分辨率遥感影像数据ASTER同步反演的验证方法。以2003年8月1日太 湖地区为例，用ASTER数据的反演结果与同时相的MODIS地表温度产品进行比较，分别在太湖水面、无锡城区及城郊农田3个典型地表 状况下选取感兴趣区域做线性拟合，取得了较好的结果，拟合的R2值可达0.966 6。     

Strategy for consistent model parameter calibration for soft soils using multi-objective optimisation

Constitutive models for soft soils require a large number of parameters to model the complex material response. One set of parameters should capture the soil response for various laboratory & in situ stress paths. This requires a new method to calibrate a consistent set of model parameters using test data from different load paths of classic geomechanical tests. The feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated with the recently developed CREEP-SCLAY1S model. After a sensitivity analysis that highlights the model parameters for optimisation, an optimisation process for two different configurations is designed. The latter is successfully verified against artificially generated laboratory data.     

Uncertainty of full-scale manoeuvring trial results estimated using a simulation model

This paper describes how to estimate the uncertainty of manoeuvring sea trial results without performing repeated tests using only a simulation model. The approach is based on the Monte Carlo method of uncertainty propagation. Moreover, the global sensitivity analysis procedure based on variance decomposition is described. As an example, the method is applied to estimate the uncertainty of 10°/10° zigzag overshoot angles and a 20° turning circle advance and tactical diameter for a small research vessel. The estimated uncertainty is compared with corresponding experimental uncertainty assessed from repeated tests. The method can be useful for validation studies and other studies that involve the uncertainty of sea trial results.