区域气候模式RegCM2对标量粗糙敏感性试验

在地气通量的计算中,一般没有考虑温度、水汽、动量的相应粗糙度之间的不同。本文将标量粗糙度Z0T和Z0q引入区域气候模式RegCM2的陆面过程BATS中,用1991年6月与7月的观测资料作了三组敏感性试验,并同实况进行了比较。结果表明：在区域气候模式RegCM2中引入标量粗糙度后,提高了地气间感热通量与潜热通量的计算精度,改善了地表温度和地表比湿的模拟,进而改变了降水的模拟,表明区域气候模式对标量粗糙是敏感的,并且在晴天状况下更为敏感。     

Sensitivity Tests of an Energy Balance Model to Choice of Stability Functions and Measurement Accuracy

Sensible (H) and latent (L_vE) heat fluxes are obtained by a combined energy budget – similarity model applied to observations from Melle in Belgium and Cabauw in The Netherlands. The sensitivity to both the stability functions and the accuracy of input data is investigated. In a first step, fluxes are calculated for a selection of stability functions and compared to values obtained with pre-defined (reference) functions. For the diurnal fluxes higher than 10 W m⁻² in 1996 at Melle, the root-mean-square rmsreaches 9 W m⁻² for H and 6 W m⁻² for L_vE, depending on the chosen functions. A lesser sensitivity is obtained at Cabauw and can be explained by lower absolute values of the stability parameter ζ (L involving the Obukhov length) mainly induced by higher mean wind speeds. Different stability bins are also considered. It is concluded that a more accurate assessment of the stability functions is already desirable for absolute values of L above a few metres. These values are not so scarce at Melle and should be captured in the future by an increasing number of new developing long-term measurement stations. In a second step, a statistical approach is proposed with errors depicted by both systematic biases and random fluctuations represented by means of Gaussian distributions. The results show that very accurate measurements are needed in order to maintain the mean annual value of the bias and rms below 5–10 W m⁻², and thus to allow the discrimination between the sensitivity to errors on input data and to the stability functions selection.     

Influence of rainfall spatial variability on flood prediction

This paper deals with the sensitivity of distributed hydrological models to different patterns that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall: spatially averaged rainfall or rainfall field. The rainfall data come from a dense network of recording rain gauges that cover approximately 2000 km² around Mexico City. The reference rain sample accounts for the 50 most significant events, whose mean duration is about 10 h and maximal point depth 170 mm. Three models were tested using different runoff production models: storm-runoff coefficient, complete or partial interception. These models were then applied to four fictitious homogeneous basins, whose sizes range from 20 to 1500 km². For each test, the sensitivity of the model is expressed as the relative differences between the empirical distribution of the peak flows (and runoff volumes), calculated according to the two patterns of rainfall input: uniform or non-uniform. Differences in flows range from 10 to 80%, depending on the type of runoff production model used, the size of the basin and the return period of the event. The differences are generally moderate for extreme events. In the local context, this means that uniform design rainfall combining point rainfall distribution and the probabilistic concept of the areal reduction factor could be sufficient to estimate major flood probability. Differences are more significant for more frequent events. This can generate problems in calibrating the hydrological model when spatial rainfall localization is not taken into account: a bias in the estimation of parameters makes their physical interpretation difficult and leads to overestimation of extreme flows.     

大地电磁资料的灵敏度研究

本文研究了大地电磁资料对地球电性结构模型参数的灵敏度,它在反演解释中具有重要意义.通过研究均匀半空间中视电导率资料的灵敏度函数与计算分析实际观测资料的Fréchet导数和斜率表明,视电导率资料的灵敏度在地表最大,从地表向下呈指数衰减,频率愈高,电导率愈大,衰减也愈快.视电阻率资料和阻抗相位资料对高频、浅层和低阻层具有更高的灵敏度,几何参数的平均灵敏度高于电性参数的平均灵敏度,通常阻抗相位资料比视电阻率资料更灵敏.同时,根据阻抗实部定义的视电阻率与Kunetz定义的时间域大地电磁响应,反映地层电性差异的灵敏度最高. 文章还指出,在实际的反演解释中,如何正确有效地应用阻抗相位资料,提高分辨能力,仍是急待解决的问题.     

汕头东山湖热矿水的物理化学动态及其与地震的关系

文章概述了汕头东山湖高热水化学观测井的地质、水文地质等环境条件，并据实测资料分析认为，该井是震兆反映较灵敏的进中孔，其水化学灵敏震兆组分为Cl^-、HCO3^-、He、H2等多项组分。     

Probabilistic sensitivity and modeling of two-dimensional transport in porous media

A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.     

LBH—A型氦探测仪及其应用技术

介绍最近改进的LBH-A型氦探测仪的原理、特性、应用技术及应用领域等方而。该仪器是我国第一代能自动计数、控时、报警、接通高压和交直流两用的离子泵型测氦仪。具有探测灵敏度高,读数稳定,测量精确,轻便以及适于野外工作等特点。通过野外取样、样品分析、含量计算及资料处理等系列技术方法的研究,获得了该仪器的一套基本可行的应用技术。该仪器的改进成功地为地质找矿、地震预报、检漏等领域增添了一种先进设备和相应的应用技术。     

河西重点监视区烈度预测的研究

在前人研究的基础上，建立了适合于重点监视区烈度预测的概率方法的数学模型，并对该模型中影响预测结果的因素进行了灵敏度分析。发现预测的不确定性主要来自烈度衰减规律。根据概率分析中对正态分布函数不确定性校正的原理，提出了适于重点监视区内烈度预测中不确定性的校正方法，并将该方法应用于河西重点监视区。在确定震级－频度关系的过程中，考虑了地震活动性周期及震级间隔两方面的因素，使得求出的震级－频度关系更为精确     

Einsatz eines Immunoassays als Screening-Verfahren für die Untersuchung von Grundwasserproben auf Mecoprop

Application of an Enzyme Immunoassay for the Detection of Mecoprop in a Ground water Screening Procedure A competitive solid-phase enzyme immunoassay based on rabbit polyclonal antibodies was tested for its reliability. This assay, used for the detection of the phenoxycarboxylic acid mecoprop [2-(4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy-)propionic acid], has already been characterized in terms of middle of the test (0.36 μg/L at 50% B/B₀) and detection limit (0.06 μg/L at 80% B/B₀) by Weber (Acta hydrochim. hydrobiol. 22, 53–59 (1994)). For the reliability test, a small number from a batch of one hundred groundwater samples were spiked. The analyst was neither aware of which nor of how many samples were spiked. The spiked samples were all detected as positive. There were no false negative results. From these findings, values of 1 were obtained for the diagnostic sensitivity and for the diagnostic specificity. Based on these results, the mecoprop contents of 228 groundwater samples from various waterlevel gauges of a test field were determined. The test site had previously been treated repeatedly with this herbicide. Confirmation of the enzyme immunoassay results was carried out by GC/MS. This showed that the enzyme immunoassay gave one false positive result only. All other results from immunoassay and GC/MS showed good correlation.     

夏季江淮暴雨过程对大尺度湿度场的敏感性试验

用全球谱模式T42L11对1991年6月底至7月初江淮暴雨的中期过程作敏感性试验。结果表明，在初始场中，当印度洋～孟加拉湾高湿中心附近(100°E以西)的水汽减弱后，江淮雨量减少45%，且东亚夏季风环流减弱。若南海～西太平洋高湿中心附近(100°E以东)的水汽减弱时，则东亚夏季风环流反而加强，雨带移向华北。