基于Born敏感核函数的速度、密度双参数全波形反演

速度、密度之间的相互耦合使得密度在多参数全波形反演中较难获得.本文将截断高斯-牛顿法用于声介质速度、密度双参数全波形反演,通过考虑近似Hessian矩阵中反映速度、密度相互作用的非主对角块元素,有效解决了多参数全波形反演中速度、密度之间的耦合问题,在不采用反演策略的情况下,仍能够获得精度较高的速度、密度反演结果.常规的截断牛顿类全波形反演通常利用一阶伴随状态法求取目标函数对模型参数的梯度,利用二阶伴随状态法或有限差分法求解Hessian-向量乘,在每一步内循环迭代过程中需要额外求解两次正演问题,计算量较大.本文基于Born近似,将梯度计算中的核函数-向量乘表示为具有明确物理意义的向量-标量乘的累加运算,同时将Hessian-向量乘转化为两次核函数-向量乘,无需额外求解正演问题,有效降低了计算量.数值实验证明了本文提出的方法的有效性.     

VTI介质多参数联合走时层析成像方法

本文基于球谐展开群速度表达式计算走时关于各向异性参数的Fréchet核函数,利用共轭梯度法对两种参数化方法进行了VTI介质中多参数联合反演方法研究.经过理论分析和数值试验发现,与经典的Thomsen参数化方法相比,垂直慢度、水平慢度与动校正慢度的参数化方式更有利于VTI介质多参数联合走时层析反演.为了克服走时对ε参数的不敏感性,我们采用了两步法进行双参数反演,理论模型试验反演得到了与垂直速度精度相当的ε参数.可以将两步法扩展到三步法以同时反演各向异性介质中的三个参数,数值试验展示了该策略的应用潜力.     

Comprehensive three dimensional finite element analysis,parametric study and sensitivity analysis on the seismic performance of soil–micropile-superstructure interaction

A comprehensive dynamic three dimensional finite element model, which includes the effect of lots of important parameters on the micropiles seismic performance, has been presented. The validation of the built model has been carried out using remodeling a single degree of freedom shaking table test done by Mc Manus at the University of Canterbury. The gained results proved the accuracy of the constructed model. Then, using the parametric analysis, effects of all the earthquake characteristics, soil properties, superstructure and micropiles' cap and micropiles structure on the seismic performance of micropiles have been investigated by means of presenting internal forces and displacements which occurred as the main result of earthquake. Furthermore, using the data analysis, the most and the least influential parameters on internal forces are obtained based on the Cosine Amplitude Method (CAM).     

阿勒泰山脉对新疆北部地区强暴雪过程影响的数值模拟研究

本文利用中尺度数值模式WRFV3.1对2010年1月6-8日新疆阿勒泰地区的强暴雪过程进行了敏感性数值模拟实验,来研究阿勒泰山脉地形对此次暴雪的影响。结果表明,阿勒泰地形对此次暴雪过程的形成和发展有明显的作用：（1）削减阿勒泰地区地形20%后,在阿勒泰山脉以西会导致降水减少,而在其以东则会导致降水增加;（2）对流层低层垂直速度的分布显示,在此次暴雪过程中,阿勒泰地区存在由于山脉地形引起的地形波,削减地形后会导致山脉地形波的强度减弱;（3）削减阿勒泰地区的地形后,在对流层低层700hPa,会出现气旋式环流增强的特征,而涡度场的表现则比较凌乱,同时也会对水汽场及云微物理量场产生影响。     

Sensitivity Evaluation of Snow Simulation to Multi-parameterization Schemes in the Noah-MP Model

On account of the latest community Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) schemes and its uncertainty breadth in simulation results being difficult to be determined, this study assessed the sensitivity of snow to physics options using meteorological data from the Altay Station in northern Xinjiang. The Noah-MP physics ensemble simulation with the total number of 13 824 was designed without the consideration of the uncertainties of forcing data and parameters. The natural selection approach was used to analyze the sensitivity of physical processes. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty of ensemble simulation results was further discussed. The results showed that snow was sensitive to the physical processes of surface-layer exchange coefficient, partitioning precipitation into rainfall and snowfall, lower boundary condition of soil temperature, and first-layer snow or soil temperature time scheme; Uncertainties in multi-parameterization ensemble simulation experiments were mainly from sensitive physical processes under the condition of disregarding uncertainties of forcing data and parameters. After removing the parameterization schemes that notably reduced simulation performance in sensitive physical processes, the uncertainty breadth in ensemble simulations decreased significantly. Finally, an optimal combination group of parameterization schemes for this station was configured.     

北京地区一次空气重污染过程的气象条件模拟参数化敏感性试验

气象预报是影响大气重污染预报精度的关键所在。针对2016年12月16～21日北京市一次重污染过程,开展了中尺度气象模式WRF的参数化方案配置敏感性试验。对微物理过程、长波辐射过程、短波辐射过程、陆面过程、边界层过程、近地面过程以及积云对流参数化过程进行组合优选,共设计51组参数化方案组合,分析不同模拟方案下北京市8个气象站点温度、相对湿度、10 m风速的模拟精度及其敏感性。试验结果表明:温度模拟对长波过程参数化方案最为敏感,集合离散度达2.4～7.4°C,再次是短波过程参数化方案;相对湿度模拟也对长波过程参数化方案最敏感,再次是陆面过程;风速模拟对不同过程参数化方案的敏感性程度差异不大。通过模拟结果与观测的统计对比,优选出模拟误差最小的方案组合为Lin微物理方案、RRTMG长波方案、RRTMG短波方案、Tiedtke积云对流方案、Noah陆面方案、MYNN 3rd边界层方案和MYNN近地面方案,并将其与集合平均、基准方案进行对比。对于集合平均来说,其温度模拟与观测相关系数为0.69,高于基准方案,其模拟偏差与均方根误差比基准方案低25%和11%;集合平均的相对湿度和风速模拟相比基准方案变化较小。与集合平均相比,优选方案能同时改进温度、相对湿度和风速模拟,使温度模拟偏差和均方根误差比基准方案下降35%和17%,使相对湿度模拟偏差和均方根误差下降43%和13%,使风速模拟偏差和均方根误差下降33%和24%。以上结果表明,参数化方案的敏感性试验和优选能显著减小重污染期间气象要素的模拟误差,重污染预报改进需重点关注参数化方案模拟上的不确定性。本研究也发现MYNN3rd边界层方案在这次重污染过程的气象要素模拟上具有良好性能,可为未来重污染预报改进提供参考。     

Biological reduction of chlorinated solvents: Batch-scale geochemical modeling

Simulation of biodegradation of chlorinated solvents in dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zones requires a model that accounts for the complexity of processes involved and that is consistent with available laboratory studies. This paper describes such a comprehensive modeling framework that includes microbially mediated degradation processes, microbial population growth and decay, geochemical reactions, as well as interphase mass transfer processes such as DNAPL dissolution, gas formation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. All these processes can be in equilibrium or kinetically controlled. A batch modeling example was presented where the degradation of trichloroethene (TCE) and its byproducts and concomitant reactions (e.g., electron donor fermentation, sulfate reduction, pH buffering by calcite dissolution) were simulated. Local and global sensitivity analysis techniques were applied to delineate the dominant model parameters and processes. Sensitivity analysis indicated that accurate values for parameters related to dichloroethene (DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) degradation (i.e., DCE and VC maximum utilization rates, yield due to DCE utilization, decay rate for DCE/VC dechlorinators) are important for prediction of the overall dechlorination time. These parameters influence the maximum growth rate of the DCE and VC dechlorinating microorganisms and, thus, the time required for a small initial population to reach a sufficient concentration to significantly affect the overall rate of dechlorination. Self-inhibition of chlorinated ethenes at high concentrations and natural buffering provided by the sediment were also shown to significantly influence the dechlorination time. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the rates of the competing, nonchlorinated electron-accepting processes relative to the dechlorination kinetics also affect the overall dechlorination time. Results demonstrated that the model developed is a flexible research tool that is able to provide valuable insight into the fundamental processes and their complex interactions during bioremediation of chlorinated ethenes in DNAPL source zones.     

Establishing a monitoring network for an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

A methodology for monitoring system of an impoundment-induced landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China is introduced. Currently, based on landslide geological classification, the monitoring regions and methods which include types of monitoring instruments, placement and calibration precision of instruments, and appropriate periods for instrumental placement is confirmed. To optimize the monitoring system, sensitivity analysis of displacements and the water table in landslides affected by reservoir surface fluctuation is completed to determine the layout of the monitoring cross sections and the monitoring points. As a case study, the behavior of displacements and the potential fluctuation of the water table in the Shiliushubao landslide, produced by the gradual water impoundment at Three Gorges Reservoir, has been simulated using 3D finite element method analysis. The sensitivity analysis of Shiliushubao landslide is investigated by the fuzzy set evaluation method. As a result, the monitoring network of Shiliushubao landslide is established.     

大尺度辐射度模型敏感性分析及在祁连山林区的应用

辐射度模型(RGM)用于计算植被二向性反射(BRDF)。但是目前基于辐射度方法的计算机模拟模型的应用被局限在较小的、比较单一的场景范围之内。把RGM模型扩展为大场景辐射度模型(LRGM),关键在于如何把大场景分为子场景,既保证模拟精度,又可以显著缩短计算时间。通过不同地形条件下模拟结果的对比,分析讨论了子场景划分方法的敏感性,分析表明:①地形对BRDF是有影响的,主要表现在后向观测方向的增强作用和前向观测方向的减弱作用;②子场景个数对模拟结果影响不大,最大偏差不超过0.007。然后,选取黑河流域大野口山区水源涵养林带为观测试验区,利用大场景辐射度模型进行真实结构模拟,将模拟结果与ASTER数据进行对比,结果表明,二者最大绝对误差不超过0.0382,证明LRGM模型模拟遥感像元尺度的BRDF是可行的。     

Epistemic bimodality and kinetic hypersensitivity in photochemical models of Titan's atmosphere

We show that photochemical models of Titan's atmosphere can give rise to bimodal distributions in the abundances of some major compounds, like C₂H₂ and C₂H₄. Sensitivity analysis enabled us to identify the causes and conditions of this bimodality. We propose several methods to control this behavior in photochemical models. In particular, we point out the importance of two key reactions and the needs for a critical evaluation of the kinetic data. We also show that the abundances of some compounds are hypersensitive to the ratio [CH₄]/[H], suggesting that a time-dependent variation of this ratio might lead to a real bistability in the high atmosphere of Titan.