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11.
Peter Malik 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(5):707-711
Hydrograph analyses of groundwater depletion process in the spring were used for estimation of karstification degree and groundwater
sensitivity to pollution in the whole catchment area. Differences of individual depletion hydrographs enable assessment of
the anticipated extent of absorption, attenuation and self-purification processes during the groundwater penetration through
the rock environment between its infiltration and its outflow in the spring. The method was applied in the SW part of the
Velka Fatra Mountains (Slovakia) “Tlsta” hydrogeological structure. In total, 209 individual recession curves from 20 gauged
springs were analyzed. Depending on characteristic groundwater depletion hydrographs with independent sub-regimes, categories
of groundwater sensitivity to pollution were defined. Finally, resulting sensitivities to pollution were linked to lithostratigraphical
units in the area. 相似文献
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14.
Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Florian Pappenberger Patrick Matgen Keith J. Beven Jean-Baptiste Henry Laurent Pfister Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006
In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds. 相似文献
15.
M. J. Best C. S. B. Grimmond Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525
The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model. 相似文献
16.
Jon Albretsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(4-5):287-304
We perform eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving simulations of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea with a terrain-following numerical
ocean model. We demonstrate that realistic representations of freshwater input are not required when the focus is on modelling
mesoscale structures such as meanders and eddies. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyze the results using a recently developed
energy diagnostic scheme to study the sensitivity to realistic representations of the lateral freshwater flux provided to
the area from the Baltic Sea and by the major rivers. The scheme is suitable for analysis of growth of instabilities, and
it has four basic instability processes prominent. We recognize both horizontal and vertical shear instabilities. There are
two processes where average potential energy is converted to eddy kinetic energy, and they are related to the mean gradient
in surface elevation and the mean lateral density gradient, respectively. The latter process is known as frontal instability.
We demonstrate that the change in the eddy kinetic energy field is small, despite the large variations in the hydrographic
properties from experiment to experiment. Moreover, generation of eddy activity appears at the same locations and with approximately
the same strength regardless of actual representations of freshwater input. Furthermore, we find that vertical shear instability
dominates the energy conversion processes in the Norwegian Coastal Current. Finally, we find that the areas off the northwest
coast of Denmark recognized with enhanced eddy kinetic energy level is not caused by instability processes but eddy–eddy interaction
rooted in variations in the sea level. 相似文献
17.
The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses. 相似文献
18.
变形体的变形模式确定的情况下,应用灵敏度准则进行监测网的设计;根据Tayor展式,导出了监测网顾及灵敏度准则的二类设计模型,并对其解算及模拟算例加以说明。 相似文献
19.
20.
宝鸡市狄家坡滑坡稳定性研究 总被引:13,自引:1,他引:12
宝鸡市狄家坡斜坡是一个古滑坡。在调查滑坡区水文地质和工程地质条件的前提下, 本文描述了滑坡的形态与物质结构、滑坡表层的变形破坏特征及其影响因素, 探讨了古滑坡的发生机制。引用可以任意条分块体的Sarma方法, 研究了该滑坡在自然、地震、饱水和三者同时存在共四种状态下的稳定性, 并进行了斜坡表层黄土坡体的稳定性对于地下水位上升的敏感性分析。基本结论是, 狄家坡滑坡在整体上是稳定的, 其表层的黄土坡体在地下水位上升时会发生失稳破坏。最后, 提出了进行滑坡防治的工程对策。 相似文献