Rights-based management in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean tuna fishery: Economic and environmental change under the Vessel Day Scheme

Defining, strengthening and enforcing rights over fisheries resources is frequently identified as central to overcoming ‘the tragedy of the commons’ and associated environmental and economic challenges in fisheries systems. Though economic theory generally suggests that output control (e.g. quotas) creates the strongest incentives for efficiency and conservation, input controls (e.g. on effort) remain common. This paper explores the rationale for, and implications of, employing a transferable effort scheme in one of the largest and most valuable fisheries. In 2007, eight Pacific Island countries implemented the Vessel Day Scheme with the aims of strengthening their rights over tuna resources and control over economic and environmental trends. Four years since implementation, the scheme has significantly increased economic returns for the island states and generated improvements in data reporting. However, it has not generated a firm limit on fishing effort and its structure has made it difficult to directly target the biological concerns of individual species within the multi-species fishery. In the future, outcomes of the Vessel Day Scheme will continue to be tempered by the structural limitations of effort-based regulatory scheme, market conditions in the sector and the willingness of firms and island states to clarify, abide by and enforce the technical components of the scheme.     

Coastal exposure to oil spill impacts from the Finisterre Traffic Separation Scheme

This study analyzes the coastal exposure to potential oil spills coming from the various corridors that constitute the Finisterre Traffic Separation Scheme (NW Iberia). A Lagrangian model was executed with results from a realistic configuration of an ocean model during 2012, validated here against High-Frequency (HF) radar-derived surface currents. Virtual particles were released each hour and followed during the next 4 days. A series of maps summarize which regions would be impacted and when. We have learnt, for example, that Cape Finisterre is the most affected area under a wide range of scenarios and that a sensitive area such as the National Park of the Atlantic Islands would require protective actions in less than 24 h if oil spills from the south eventually occurred. A complete analysis by corridor and during specific wind events is available through a web tool, which could be useful for decision makers in case of contingency.     

2010年黄河调水调沙期间河口泥沙输运过程的数值模拟

利用EFDC三维数学模型,以整个渤海的水动力环境为背景,加入利津站逐日水沙数据和河口区域的风场数据,模拟了2010年黄河调水调沙期间河口入海泥沙输运过程。黄河调水调沙期间,河口泥沙的输运方式主要受到径流输入的悬沙浓度的变化的影响。通过模拟结果估算了不同传输方式相互转化的悬沙浓度阈值。在没有强风浪扰动的情况下,径流输入悬沙浓度小于13.5g/L时,河口泥沙的传输方式为表层羽状流;输入的悬沙浓度在13.5g/L-24.5g/L之间时,羽状流遭到破快,河口淡咸水由于密度接近发生混合;当输入的悬沙浓度在24.5g/L-29.0g/L时,在底层河口泥沙以低密度异重流的方式传输,在表层则同时形成羽状流;输入的悬沙浓度大于29.0g/L时,黄河入海径流在河口处迅速潜没,形成高密度异重流。高密度泥沙异重流携带大量沉积物沿着海底斜坡向海输运,其初始速度可达1m/s以上。异重流在传输过程中受到底床摩擦力的阻碍作用和泥沙沉降,速度和密度降低,逐渐向混合状态转化,最后以羽状流的形势向海传输。黄河入海泥沙在夏季主要堆积在河口三角洲附近的一个相当有限的区域。     

Two-dimensional finite volume method for dam-break flow simulation

A numerical model based upon a second-order upwind ceil-center f＇mite volume method on unstructured triangular grids is developed for solving shallow water equations. The assumption of a small depth downstream instead of a dry bed situation changes the wave structure and the propagation speed of the front which leads to incorrect results. The use of Harten-Lax-vau Leer （HLL） allows handling of wet/dry treatment. By usage of the HLL approximate Riemann solver, also it make possible to handle discontinuous solutions. As the assumption of a very small depth downstream oftbe dam can change the nature of the dam break flow problem which leads to incorrect results, the HLL approximate Riemann solver is used for the computation of inviscid flux functions, which makes it possible to handle discontinuous solutions. A multidimensional slope-limiting technique is applied to achieve second-order spatial accuracy and to prevent spurious oscillations. To alleviate the problems associated with numerical instabilities due to small water depths near a wet/dry boundary, the friction source terms are treated in a fully implicit way. A third-order Runge-Kutta method is used for the time integration of semi-discrete equations. The developed numerical model has been applied to several test cases as well as to real flows. The tests are tested in two cases： oblique hydraulic jump and experimental dam break in converging-diverging flume. Numerical tests proved the robustness and accuracy of the model. The model has been applied for simulation of dam break analysis of Torogh in Iran. And finally the results have been used in preparing EAP （Emergency Action Plan）.     

Assessing the EU ETS with a bottom-up,multi-sector model

The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the central pillar of the EU response against climate change. This trading mechanism is considered, from the theoretical point of view, as the most cost-effective method to reduce GHG. However, previous studies show that the agents who participate in these markets may behave in a way that may lead to inefficient CO₂ prices, creating doubts about the static and dynamic efficiency of the system. This article analyses these possible anomalies by first trying to model the ETS in a more realistic way, addressing some of the limitations of previous models, and second, by comparing the results with real market transactions. For this, a bottom-up, multi-sector model has been built, which represents the EU ETS in an integrated, cross-sectoral way, paying particular attention to the interactions among the most emissions intensive industries. The results show the benefits of this modelling approach and how it better reflects real market conditions. Some preliminary conclusions regarding the behaviour of the agents in the ETS market are also presented.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Low allowance prices in the EU ETS have put into question the dynamic efficiency of the EU ETS system, prompting various ideas for structural reform. However, determining the right reform also requires estimating correctly how agents will respond to it. This article proposes a tool to realistically simulate the EU ETS under the assumption of rational agents, and compare it to real market outcomes, in order to understand better the behaviour of agents in this carbon market, and therefore how to design better policies.     

GRAPES的积云对流参数化方案性能评估及其改进试验

利用GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)单柱模式(Single Column Model,SCM),采用GCSS WG4第三次个例资料,对BMJ、SAS和KFeta三种积云参数化方案进行了数值试验和诊断分析,得到如下结论:BMJ和KFeta方案都能较好地模拟出与观测相符的降水,而SAS则相对较差;BMJ方案在对流层中高层位温误差较小,低层偏冷严重,同时该方案具有较强的水汽向上输送能力,易造成低层偏干,中高层偏湿,因此其调整的大气层结过于稳定;KFeta方案倾向于造成低层偏冷偏湿,但低层偏冷幅度相对于其他方案较小,在对流层高层则由于对流穿透过强导致严重偏冷.针对KFeta方案对流穿透过强的问题,本文提出了一种新的对其垂直速度方程进行修改的方案,并且考察了Anderson等提出的修改流出层方案.数值试验表明,这两种修改都能有效地减小高层冷误差;综合来看,本文提出的修改方案的预报效果更令人满意.     

EU emissions trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis

An oligopoly competition model is described and used to illustrate the potential effect of EU emissions trading and transport issues on the production decisions and profitability of cement producers in a typical western European country market. The role of geography is introduced from three viewpoints: the existence of regional markets, the fact that EU producers may operate multiple plants across these regions, and the possibility of production capacity constraints. A typical EU state is divided into a coastal region which is initially exposed to international competition, and an inland region which is initially protected. Assuming pure auctioning of EU Allowances and a range of CO₂ prices up to €50/t, our model predicts a large increase of imports into the coastal region. Consequences for the inland producers include reduced attractiveness of the coastal market, as well as increased competition from coastal producers and from non-EU imports. The model includes a number of simplifications and therefore does not claim to offer definitive predictions, but our results do suggest that an increase in non-EU imports could feasibly offset more than 70% of the decrease in EU cement sector emissions. The likely impact on producer profits is considered for each region, and the advantages and disadvantages of potential mitigating policy measures are reviewed for either the EU Allowance allocation process or border adjustments on cement products.     

云南金平亚拉寨镍矿矿石组份及其综合利用

亚拉寨镍矿属岩浆熔离型与晚期岩浆结晶分异型复合的硫化物矿床。矿体赋存于基性～超基性杂岩体底部,有用元素镍平均0.44ω%,伴生铜、钴等。对矿石组份及其赋存状态研究后,提出综合利用建议。     

T213模式对河南省降水预报检验评价

对2032年10月-2003年9月T213降水预报产品的预报效果进行了分型和分区检验，结果表明：冬半年对小量级预报能力较强，夏半年对大雨以上量级的降水有较好的预报效果；东高西低型降水各量级的预报均有较高的准确率，低槽型次之；各量级的预报大部分是南方优于北方。     

黄河三角洲滩涂区海堤护岸结构方案优化实证研究

海堤护岸是抵御和减轻风暴潮灾害的根本措施,是从根本上消除风暴潮对沿岸人民生命财产安全威胁的最有效措施之一。黄河三角洲沿海滩涂广阔平坦,多为沙质和淤泥质,沟壑交错,海堤护岸的建设量大面广,所以对区域内海堤护岸的建设方案进行比较优化,更显得十分必要。文章通过具体的工程案例,阐述了建于黄河三角洲滩涂区的海堤护岸结构方案的比选与优化步骤与方法,这无疑对建于滨海滩涂区的海堤护岸的方案优化具有直接的参考与借鉴意义。