Views from the vulnerable: Understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel

In much of sub-Saharan Africa, considerable research exists on the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems. Recent adaptation studies emphasize sectoral vulnerability and largely physical adaptation strategies that mirror anti-desertification plans. The adaptive role of subsistence farmers, the vulnerable ‘target’ population, is largely overlooked. This article aims to fill this gap by putting the views from the vulnerable in the center of the analysis. Drawing from participatory risk ranking and scoring among smallholders in central Senegal, data on multiple hazards indicate that farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change is undermined by poor health, rural unemployment, and inadequate village infrastructure. Results from conceptual mapping reveal incomplete understanding of causes and consequences of climate change. Yet, shared knowledge and lessons learned from previous climatic stresses provide vital entry points for social learning and enhanced adaptive capacity to both wetter and drier periods now and in the future.     

Wind forces and related saltation transport

The effect of several wind characteristics on sand transport was studied in three experiments in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. The first experiment is used to analyse the relation between wind speed and shear stress fluctuations across height. The second experiment is used to study the relation of these wind characteristics with saltation transport for fourteen convective storms, registered during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003. The effect of sampling time is studied for two of these convective storms. The third experiment relates the turbulent structures of four convective storms to saltation transport. Wind speed measurements were undertaken with two sonic anemometers and sediment transport was measured by two saltiphones. The sampling frequency was either 8 or 16 Hz. The sonic frame of reference was rotated according to a triple rotation.Horizontal fluctuations showed a (fairly) good correlation with height because the wind speed at both sensors was affected by the same vortices. The correlation coefficients ranged from 0.42 (when the distance between the sensors was 1.75 m) to 0.92 (when the distance was 0.25 m). The instantaneous Reynolds' stress had the weakest correlation (correlation coefficient of 0.05 at 1.75 m between the sensors and 0.56 at 0.25 m between the sensors), because the momentum at 2 m above the soil surface is transported by different eddies than those close to the ground. This also explains the fairly good correlation coefficients between the horizontal components of the wind and saltation compared to the poor correlations between instantaneous Reynolds' stress and saltation. An increase in sampling time did not have much impact on these correlation coefficients up to sampling periods of about 30 s. However, this sampling interval would be too coarse to describe the vertical wind component adequately. The classification of the moments of shear stress into the turbulent structures, sweeps, ejections, inward and outward interactions, showed that the mean saltation flux is higher at sweeps and outward interactions than at ejections and inward interactions. Also, saltation occurred more often during sweeps and outward interactions than during ejections and inward interactions.     

Energy and Water Balance at Soil-Air Interface in a Sahelian Region

l. IntroductionModel simulation of soll physical properties is very 1mportant for climate studies becauseof the role they play in different interaction processes with the atmosphere. One of the mostwidespread studies is the implementation of soil models 1n General Circulation Models(GCMs); previous studies showed, in fact, that climate simulat1ons are sensitive to theparameterization of the energy and mass fluxes at the land surface (V1terbo, l995; Beljiaars etal., l996; Dolman et al., l997…     

To what extent have laterites contributed to the geochemical,surface reflectance and magnetic properties of adjacent tropical soils? Evidence from Niger and Burkina Faso

The present study is based on a suite of surface samples from exposures of eroded laterite, considered to be Tertiary in age, and nearby soils in the Sahelian region of SW Niger and Burkina Faso. X‐ray fluorescence, X‐ray diffraction, computer‐controlled scanning electron microscopy, energy‐dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy, diffuse UV–visible reflectance spectroscopy and a suite of magnetic measurements have been used to shed light on the origin of the soils and their possible derivation from the adjacent, eroded laterite outcrops. On the basis of the wide range of data obtained, we conclude that the mineralogy and magnetic properties of the soils preclude direct derivation from the laterites without further weathering and modification. Nor does the evidence support the view that the soils have evolved entirely independently, uninfluenced by input from the laterites. The only conclusion that is consistent with all the lines of evidence is that the erosion of the laterites provided at least a significant part of the material upon which soil formation took place. This must have occurred at a time early enough to permit a long period of subsequent soil development during which the iron oxides, specifically haematite and ferrimagnetic minerals, were significantly modified. From this, we infer that eroded material from discontinuous laterite exposures has contributed significantly to the remotely sensed, distinctive reflectance characteristics of the Sahel surfaces. The magnetic properties of the soils provide evidence for the in situ neo‐formation of fine, secondary, pedogenic magnetite/maghemite grains typical of those found in many soils across the Sahel region and elsewhere in both temperate and tropical environments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet–copula‐based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information‐based input variable selection (IVS) for non‐linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950–2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest‐based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE‐based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet–copula approach.     

The influence of antecedent rainfall on Sahelian surface evaporation

This study quantifies the influence of rainfall on surface evaporation in the Sahel. A numerical model of the surface is used to extend the observations taken during the HAPEX–Sahel project, and is forced by 2 years of rain‐gauge data. The model is applied to the Southern Super Site (SSS), which covers an area of less than 100 km². The effects of rainfall variability (spatial and temporal) on soil moisture, vegetation growth and evaporation are explored. Contrasting rainfall conditions between the two years produce observed differences in the timing of the seasonal growth cycle. This correlates well with modelled root‐zone moisture deficits, and exerts a modest influence on transpiration rates. The evolution of surface evaporation is dominated, however, by the bare soil contribution in the day or two after a storm. This component also exerts a strong influence on the spatial variability of fluxes across the SSS, particularly when rain falls only in part of the area. In these cases, differences in evaporation between recently wetted and dry areas can reach 3\5 mm day⁻¹. Observations indicate that during a period of persistent rainfall gradients across the SSS, the lower atmosphere maintained a ‘memory’ of past rainfall patterns through humidity contrasts. These were the result of gradients in surface soil moisture, and therefore evaporation. The model results therefore support the possibility of a positive surface feedback mechanism affecting rainfall patterns in the region. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s

Abstract

The severe drought that affects the Sahel since the late 1960s has been very closely studied and monitored during the last three decades. Recently, after several wet years, it was questioned from a statistical point of view whether the drought was over. The conclusions of a recent study were that the rainfall deficit was not over at the end of 2000 and that the drought continues. The analysis of the change points in the station rainfall time series suggests differentiating these findings. There is now growing evidence that there is a potential shift towards a more humid state. However, the present analysis shows that the assumption that a significant increase in rainfall may have occurred around the early 1990s could only be verified at the customary confidence level in about 10 years from now.     

Sustainability and Sahelian soils: evidence from Niger

It is difficult to produce systems for judging sustainability, despite general enthusiasm for the concept. Here we evaluate the 'capitals' formulation for sustainability, which attempts to bring together the social and the environmental dimensions of the issue, and which has gained wide currency. We concentrate our attention on the 'natural capital' element in this framework, which has apparently been seen as its least problematical component. We use data on soil erosion from a Sahelian agricultural community in Niger. Despite apparently high rates of erosion, we find it difficult to decide whether the system is sustainable (using the capitals or any other framework). It is even dubious whether sustainability is an urgent concern. We caution against imposing yet another poorly formulated set of concepts on this and similar systems.     

Seed germination of seven Sahelian legume species

As part of the restoration of degraded land south of the Sahara, an experimental study has been carried out on the germinative properties of the seeds of seven Sahelian leguminous species (Cassia obtusifolia, Cassia occidentalis, Indigofera astragalina, Indigofera senegalensis, Indigofera tinctoria, Sesbania pachycarpa and Tephrosia purpurea). Analysis of the effects of temperature, pretreatment and water potential has enabled definition of their optimum germination conditions. For the temperature range studied (20–40°C), germination capacity was significantly greater between 30 and 35°C for all species. All species except Cassia obtusifolia developed a very strong integumental inhibition which was easily eliminated by mechanical scarification or immersion in concentrated sulphuric acid (H₂SO₄, 95%). Study of the influence of water potential on germination showed that these species are able to germinate at relatively low water potentials. Different patterns of response to water stress are highlighted and explained by the different behaviours of these species in the semi-arid conditions of the Sahelian environment.