Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.     

Sahel气候与环境变化研究进展

对 Sahel地区气候及环境变化的研究 ,对理解和加强我国干旱半干旱地区许多相关问题有较好的借鉴意义。Sahel地区的干旱化持续了近 30年 ,虽然 1 999年降水出现了自 1 968年以来的最高值 ,但整个 90年代降水仍然偏低。造成 Sahel降水波动的因素包括大西洋海表温度、陆面反馈、全球变暖等。其中海洋的影响起重要作用 ,在某些年份里土壤水分可能会起到比较大的作用 ,而大气内部的动力作用则可能没有明显影响 ,从大尺度看人类活动对此地区整体环境和气候的变化贡献不大。     

Variabilité isotopique des précipitations sahéliennes à différentes échelles de temps à Niamey (Niger) entre 1992 et 1999 : implication climatiqueIsotopic variability of Sahelian rainfall at different time steps in Niamey (Niger, 1992–1999): climatic implications

The isotopic content of rainfall was measured in Niamey (Niger) over a period of eight years (1992–1999). Seasonal distribution of rainy events depends on the monsoon movement over the region. At the beginning and at the end of the rainy season, low rainfall, high temperatures and low relative humidity favour isotopic enrichment. In the middle of the rainy season, heavy rainfall, low temperatures and relative humidity close to saturation lead to isotopically depleted contents because of the mass effect; moreover, in the case of low rainfall, marked vertical convective development favours high altitude condensation. How far the Intertropical Front moves north, determines the quality of the rainy season and influences the isotopic contents. Thus the isotopic contents of rainfall are good climatic indicators. To cite this article: J.-D. Taupin et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 43–50     

Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate

Contrary to assertions of widespread irreversible desertification in the African Sahel, a recent increase in seasonal greenness over large areas of the Sahel has been observed, which has been interpreted as a recovery from the great Sahelian droughts. This research investigates temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation greenness and rainfall variability in the African Sahel and their interrelationships based on analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the period 1982–2003 and gridded satellite rainfall estimates. While rainfall emerges as the dominant causative factor for the increase in vegetation greenness, there is evidence of another causative factor, hypothetically a human-induced change superimposed on the climate trend.     

The role of human interventions in tree dynamics and environmental rehabilitation in the Sahel zone of Niger

A study was conducted in 15 village territories of 3 regions in Niger. Among these sites, 4 were control and 11 had interventions comprising of farmer-managed tree natural regeneration (FMNR), water harvesting techniques (WHT) and windbreaks. The objective of the study was to determine the state of tree vegetation in terms of species diversity and harvestable volume and evaluate the environmental trend in the sites. An inventory of the vegetation was carried out during the rainy season using radial transects from the village centre, outwards, in addition to surveys with local communities.The results showed that tree diversity is enhanced in sites with interventions, and soil rehabilitation techniques and farmer-managed tree natural regeneration favor the rehabilitation and development of trees. The number of resprouts/seedlings varied with site, soil type and intervention. The number of harvestable trees depended on factors like caring, monitoring of cutting, types of intervention and ecological zone.Harvestable volume is a function of high regeneration rate, number of harvestable individual trees and site. Vegetation is improving in all the sites and local communities using tree products for their various needs. This study contributed to setting up a reference database for these sites.     

Précision de l'estimation des précipitations au Sahel selon la densité du réseau d'observation pluviométrique

Many earlier studies have shown the very large spatial variability of rainfall in the Sahel at all time steps, from the event to the season. Often, the meteorological network in these countries is sparse, with one to five rain gauges per 10 000 km². It is thus difficult to calculate accurate estimates of the mean rainfall over such a large area. To improve the knowledge of Sahelian systems and the spatial distribution of rainfall, a dense network was set up in an area of 16 000 km² in southwestern Niger between 1991 and 1996. The aim was to calculate accurate rainfall spatial means over an area of 12 000 km² at different time steps (from the season to the ten-day period). With the spatialisation method used (kriging), it was possible to calculate curves of estimation errors of mean rainfall versus the rain-gauge network density. Operational abacuses of the standard estimation error as a function of the spatial mean of rainfall and the network density are proposed.     

A coupled human–environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies

This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification.The human–environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms.The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability.The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900–2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification.     

论气候在西非萨赫勒地带荒漠化中的作用：兼谈近期人类活动的影响

西非萨赫勒地带是世界上最严重的荒漠化地区。本文论述了气候在其荒漠化中的作用这一理论问题。文中提出，不能简单化和绝对化对看待这个问题。气候在该地带荒漠化中的作用具有复杂性，既有直接作用，又有间接作用；既能单独起作用，又能与人类过度经济活动因素结合在一起发挥巨大的作用。     

Using land cover changes and demographic data to improve hydrological modeling in the Sahel

At the beginning of the drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall decreased markedly, but runoff coefficients and in some cases, absolute runoff increased. This situation was due to the conversion of the land cover from natural vegetation with a low annual runoff coefficient, to cropland and bare soils, whose runoff coefficients are higher. Unless they are adapted, hydrological conceptual models, such as GR2M, are unable to reproduce this increase in runoff. Despite the varying environmental and climatic conditions of the West African Sahel, we show that it is possible to increase the performance of the GR2M model simulations by elaborating a time‐varying soil water holding capacity and to incorporate this value in the annual maximum amount of water to be stored in reservoir A of the model. We looked for interactions between climate, rural society, and the environment. These interactions drive land‐cover changes in the Sahel, which in turn drive the distribution of rainfall between infiltration, evaporation, and runoff and hence the water resources, which are vital in this region. We elaborated several time series of key indicators linked to these interactions. We then integrated these changes in the runoff conditions of the GR2M model through the maximum value of the reservoir capacity. We calculated annual values of water holding capacity using the annual values of four classes of land cover, natural vegetation, cultivated area, bare soil, and surface water. We then used the hydrological model with and without this time‐varying soil value of A and compared the performances of the model under the two scenarios. Whatever the calibration period used, the Nash–Sutcliffe index was always greater in the case of the time‐varying A time series.     

Analysis of land degradation processes on a tiger bush plateau in South West Niger using MODIS and LANDSAT TM/ETM+ data

Remote sensing digital image analysis has been applied to monitor land clearing and degradation processes on a plateau covered by tiger bush near Niamey in South West Niger, where signs of severe landscape degradation due to fuelwood supply have been observed in the last decades. A MODIS NDVI dataset (2000–2015) and five LANDSAT images (1986–2012) were used to identify spatial and temporal dynamics and to emphasize areas of greater degradation. The study indicates that the land clearing found by previous investigations in the second part of the 20^th century is still ongoing, with a decreasing trend of MODIS NDVI values recorded in the period 2000–2015. This trend appeared to be linked to an increase in bare soil areas that was demonstrated by analysis of LANDSAT SAVI images. The investigation also indicated that rates of degradation are stronger in more deteriorated areas like those located nearer Niamey; degradation patterns also tend to increase from the inner areas to the edges of the plateau. These results attest to the urgency to develop effective environmental preservation policies and find alternative solutions for domestic energy supply.