Framing the application of adaptation pathways for rural livelihoods and global change in eastern Indonesian islands

In developing countries adaptation responses to climate and global change should be integrated with human development to generate no regrets, co-benefit strategies for the rural poor, but there are few examples of how to achieve this. The adaptation pathways approach provides a potentially useful decision-making framework because it aims to steer societies towards sustainable futures by accounting for complex systems, uncertainty and contested multi-stakeholder arenas, and by maintaining adaptation options. Using Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia, as an example we consider whether generic justifications for adaptation pathways are tenable in the local context of climate and global change, rural poverty and development. Interviews and focus groups held with a cross-section of provincial leaders showed that the causes of community vulnerability are indeed highly complex and dynamic, influenced by 20 interacting drivers, of which climate variability and change are only two. Climate change interacts with population growth and ecosystem degradation to reduce land, water and food availability. Although poverty is resilient due to corruption, traditional institutions and fatalism, there is also considerable system flux due to decentralisation, modernisation and erosion of traditional culture. Together with several thresholds in drivers, potential shocks and paradoxes, these characteristics result in unpredictable system trajectories. Decision-making is also contested due to tensions around formal and informal leadership, corruption, community participation in planning and female empowerment. Based on this context we propose an adaptation pathways approach which can address the proximate and systemic causes of vulnerability and contested decision-making. Appropriate participatory processes and governance structures are suggested, including integrated livelihoods and multi-scale systems analysis, scenario planning, adaptive co-management and ‘livelihood innovation niches’. We briefly discuss how this framing of adaptation pathways would differ from one in the developed context of neighbouring Australia, including the influence of the province's island geography on the heterogeneity of livelihoods and climate change, the pre-eminence and rapid change of social drivers, and the necessity to ‘leap-frog’ the Millennium Development Goals by mid-century to build adaptive capacity for imminent climate change impacts.     

Application of a fuzzy inference system for the prediction of longshore sediment transport

A fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a hybrid adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which combines a fuzzy inference system and a neural network, are used to predict and model longshore sediment transport (LST). The measurement data (field and experimental data) obtained from Kamphuis [1] and Smith et al. [2] were used to develop the model. The FIS and ANFIS models employ five inputs (breaking wave height, breaking wave angle, slope at the breaking point, peak wave period and median grain size) and one output (longshore sediment transport rate). The criteria used to measure the performances of the models include the bias, the root mean square error, the scatter index and the coefficients of determination and correlation. The results indicate that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates. To verify the ANFIS model, the model was applied to the Karaburun coastal region, which is located along the southwestern coast of the Black Sea. The LST rates obtained from the ANFIS model were compared with the field measurements, the CERC [3] formula, the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK). The percentages of error between the measured rates and the calculated LST rates based on the ANFIS method, the CERC formula (K_sig = 0.39), the calibrated CERC formula (K_sig = 0.08), the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK) are 6.5%, 413.9%, 6.9%, 15.3% and 18.1%, respectively. The comparison of the results suggests that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates and performs significantly better than the tested empirical formulas and the numerical model.     

自适应变异粒子群优化灰色模型在变形分析中的应用

标准灰色模型GM(1,1)以序列第一个分量作为初始条件进行灰色微分建模,未能充分利用序列中的新信息;其背景值的构造本质上采用了数值积分中的梯形法,精度不高。针对上述缺点,提出一种基于粒子群算法的灰色预测模型,即PSOGM(1,1)模型,对初始值和背景值参数进行优化,并将模型应用于岩体变形分析中。计算结果表明,PSOGM(1,1)模型具有较高的预测精度,可作为变形分析的一种新方法。     

两种GPS天线阵列抗干扰算法研究及仿真

介绍了自适应天线阵列信号响应的数学描述,论述了在GPS抗干扰应用中广泛采用的基于最小均平方（LMS）的自适应算法的原理和实现过程,并对算法进行了仿真。提出了一种优于LMS算法的自适应数字波束形成（DBF）技术,推导出了其最优权系数矢量的计算方法,并对该算法进行了仿真。仿真结果表明：4阵元LMS的自适应调零算法对于单干扰的抑制和双干扰的抑制都达到了较好的效果,同时也体现了该算法零陷的优点。     

Singular value decomposition as a denoising tool for airborne time domain electromagnetic data

Airborne time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) surveys are increasingly carried out in anthropized areas as part of environmental studies. In such areas, noise arises mainly from either natural sources, such as spherics, or cultural sources, such as couplings with man-made installations. This results in various distortions on the measured decays, which make the EM noise spectrum complex and may lead to erroneous inversion and subsequent misinterpretations. Thresholding and stacking standard techniques, commonly used to filter TDEM data, are less efficient in such environment, requiring a time-consuming and subjective manual editing. The aim of this study was therefore to propose an alternative fast and efficient user-assisted filtering approach. This was achieved using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The SVD method uses the principal component analysis to extract into components the dominant shapes from a series of raw input curves. EM decays can then be reconstructed with particular components only. To do so, we had to adapt and implement the SVD, firstly, to separate clearly and so identify easily the components containing the geological signal, and then to denoise properly TDEM data.The reconstructed decays were used to detect noisy gates on their corresponding measured decays. This denoising step allowed rejecting efficiently mainly spikes and oscillations. Then, we focused on couplings with man-made installations, which may result in artifacts on the inverted models. An analysis of the map of weights of the selected “noisy components” highlighted high correlations with man-made installations localized by the flight video. We had therefore a tool to cull most likely decays biased by capacitive coupling noises. Finally, rejection of decays affected by galvanic coupling noises was also possible locating them through the analysis of specific SVD components. This SVD procedure was applied on airborne TDEM data surveyed by SkyTEM Aps. over an anthropized area, on behalf of the French geological survey (BRGM), near Courtenay in Région Centre, France. The established denoising procedure provides accurate denoising tools and makes, at least, the manual cleaning less time consuming and less subjective.     

Extended larval development compensates for sublethal effects of fish predation in a mayfly population (Rhithrogena semicolorata, Ephemeroptera)

Many predation experiments in streams are carried out in enclosures. Hence, the relevance of their results to predict population dynamics is often unclear due to the relatively small spatial and temporal scale of the experiments. To enhance the transferability of experimental results on the ecosystem scale the impact of fish predators on a prey population was observed in a reach scale approach over 2 years in a natural stream. A 400-m reach inhabited by the small benthivorous fishes gudgeon (Gobio gobio) and stone loach (Barbatula barbatula) was compared with a fishless reference reach.It was shown that fish predation may affect the population of the grazing mayfly Rhithrogena semicolorata on the ecosystem scale. Although the larvae grew slower in the fish reach than in the fishless reach, the adults reached the same size and fecundity because they emerged 2–3 weeks later. By this compensation, the prey species avoided a reduction of their individual fecundity. On the other hand, the extended exposure to the fish predators resulted in an enhanced mortality and a reduced density of adult mayflies. Thus, there was obviously a trade-off between maximising fecundity and minimising mortality from fish predation.The observed differences were almost certainly caused be fish predation and not by natural differences of the reaches. This was concluded from results gained after eliminating all benthivorous fish from the former fish reach.With the help of scenario analyses based on our empirical data and simple model assumptions we could demonstrate that compensating the potential loss in fecundity by extending development time led to higher average fitness of the prey population than emerging at an earlier fixed time to avoid additional predation losses. Therefore, we concluded that this strategy was adaptive in the presence of benthivorous fish.     

Mussel farming as a nutrient reduction measure in the Baltic Sea: consideration of nutrient biogeochemical cycles

Nutrient loads from the land to the sea must be reduced to combat coastal eutrophication. It has been suggested that further mitigation efforts are needed in the brackish Baltic Sea to decrease nutrients, especially in eutrophic coastal areas. Mussel farming is a potential measure to remove nutrients directly from the sea. Mussels consume phytoplankton containing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P); when the mussels are harvested these nutrients are removed from the aquatic system. However, sedimentation of organic material in faeces and pseudo-faeces below a mussel farm consumes oxygen and can lead to hypoxic or even anoxic sediments causing an increased sediment release of ammonium and phosphate. Moreover, N losses from denitrification can be reduced due to low oxygen and reduced numbers of bioturbating organisms. To reveal if mussel farming is a cost-effective mitigation measure in the Baltic Sea the potential for enhanced sediment nutrient release must be assessed.     

Developing a long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef,Australia: A framework for adaptive management reporting underpinning an ecosystem-based management approach

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 was the first produced in response to a newly legislated requirement for five-yearly reports on the status of and outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. It adopted an ecosystem approach, assessing all habitats and species, ecosystem processes and major uses. By then considering the factors affecting the ecosystem, coupled with an assessment of management effectiveness, it provided a risk-based forward-looking projection for the ecosystem. Rarely has such a comprehensive, ecosystem-based report been produced to guide government action. With no pre-determined path to follow for interpreting the legislative requirements, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) developed a repeatable structure and method for Great Barrier Reef Outlook Reports that impartially and consistently considers the evidence and clearly presents the findings. The GBRMPA worked closely with relevant Australian and Queensland Government agencies as well as researchers, industry representatives and the community while developing the report. That such a report must be produced every five years allows an overview of the effectiveness of management responses to be regularly assessed. It also provides a transparent means of highlighting and tracking emerging risks facing the Great Barrier Reef.     

Early-stage transformation of coastal marine governance in Vietnam?

This paper examines an apparent ‘early stage’ governance transformation in the Tam Giang Lagoon, Vietnam. In this context, the role of key policy windows for innovative governance practice is assessed (e.g., changes to Land and Fisheries Laws). Also examined is the emergence of recent initiatives to catalyze a wider shift in governance practice in the region, including the formation of co-management institutional networks that contribute to trust building and learning, and the allocation of collective territorial use rights for fisheries. While these changes are consistent with experiences in other coastal marine contexts, the paper shows that place-based and longitudinal research is necessary to explain and predict the conditions and incentives that catalyze governance shifts. Differences between a governance change and more fundamental transformation are difficult to discern using point-in-time analysis. Moreover, the results show that current declines in ecological conditions in the lagoon may not be reversed by changes to access rights or the emergence of co-management. Rather, these governance changes may simply help to stabilize the situation and buy time until other livelihood opportunities arise. Assessments of governance transformation thus need to be linked to ecological outcomes (i.e., reversing degradation of coastal marine systems, avoiding biophysical tipping points) which may not be easily identified in the short-term. Despite uncertainty, the emergence of policy windows, evidence of institutional innovation, and small-scale rights allocation experiments, all suggest important shifts in the trajectory of governance are underway in the Tam Giang Lagoon.     

Co-existence of seals and fisheries? Adaptation of a coastal fishery for recovery of the Baltic grey seal

A complex controversy emerged when the grey seal population in the Baltic Sea recovered after decades of stagnation. The seals now cause substantial economic losses to coastal fisheries. The paper analyses the attempts taken in Finland to mitigate the problems of fishermen. The mitigation attempts include the hunting of seals, fishing technology development, economic compensations and more comprehensive management approaches. These measures are discussed in light of the long-term sustainability and adaptability of a coastal fishery. This question is important with respect to further discussions on the possibility of the coastal fishery’s co-existence with seals and sheds light on more general goals for the adaptability in the management of social–ecological systems. The paper concludes that the more comprehensive measures taken have acknowledged the need to enhance the fishery’s adaptability, but the managerial approach they represent falls short of the requirements for successful adaptive management, especially in terms of embedding the management into specific coastal contexts.