南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送和山东夏季降水量奇异值分解分析

利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法和山东省26个代表站1951～2000年6～8月降水量、NCEP／NCAR再分析1958～1998年1～12月925～300hPa5层月平均比湿和风场资料,分析了山东夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)及同期(夏季)南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送之间相关场的分布型,从中找出了遥相关的“关键区”,并对找到的“关键区”的可靠性进行了验证。研究表明,山东夏季降水与前期(冬季、春季)和同期(夏季)南海到西太平洋地区水汽输送相关较好,春季的相关程度最高,冬季次之,夏季最小。     

A consistent derivation of the wave-energy equation from basic hydrodynamic principles

Based on a decomposition of the velocity into mean flow, turbulent and wave components, momentum and hereafter a wave-energy equation is derived. It contains a turbulent energy dissipation term which is closed by applying a wave-related mixing length model and linear wave theory solutions. This closure produces a non-linear turbulent wave-energy dissipation including the wave energy in a 5/2 power law. The theory is able to predict correctly the shape of deep-water wave spectra according to Phillips' similarity law.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

A technique to improve the empirical mode decomposition in the Hilbert-Huang transform

The Hilbert-based time-frequency analysis has promising capacity to reveal the time-variant behaviors of a system. To admit well-behaved Hilbert transforms, component decomposition of signals must be performed beforehand. This was first systematically implemented by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the Hilbert-Huang transform, which can provide a time-frequency representation of the signals. The EMD, however, has limitations in distinguishing different components in narrowband signals commonly found in free-decay vibration signals. In this study, a technique for decomposing components in narrowband signals based on waves’ beating phenomena is proposed to improve the EMD, in which the time scale structure of the signal is unveiled by the Hilbert transform as a result of wave beating, the order of component extraction is reversed from that in the EMD and the end effect is confined. The proposed technique is verified by performing the component decomposition of a simulated signal and a free decay signal actually measured in an instrumented bridge structure. In addition, the adaptability of the technique to time-variant dynamic systems is demonstrated with a simulated time-variant MDOF system.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

小波分析在重力界面反演中的应用

基于Parker-Oldenburg反演方法，分析了低通滤波器B（K）的不同阈值对位场分离的影响。分别采用小波变换和低通滤波对青藏高原地区布格重力异常进行了位场分解和莫霍面反演，并将反演结果与地震资料作比较。结果表明，在重力位场分解中小波多尺度分解可以代替低通滤波器B（K），避免了闻值的选取。     

SVD迭代模型在夏季降水预测中的应用

文中设计了一种基于SVD迭代的短期气候预测模型,通过选择适当的影响因子,建立与预测对象之间的联系,从而实现对气象场序列的预测。分别对华北16个测站和长江中下游地区30个测站1991—2000年近10a夏季(6—8月)降水做预测试验,平均均方误差分别为0.352和0.312,平均符号相关系数分别为0.575和0.623。此研究表明,基于SVD迭代的气候预测模型是一种非常有效的短期气候预测途径,具有很强的应用价值。     

南半球环流异常与我国夏季旱涝分布关系及其影响机制

利用1951—2000年NCEP/NCAR风场和高度场再分析资料及全国160站降水量资料, 采用奇异值分解、相关和合成分析方法, 研究6—8月南半球500 hPa高度、高低层纬向风距平差异常 (Δu₈₅₀-Δu₂₀₀) 与我国夏季旱涝分布的关系及其影响机制。结果表明:当500 hPa澳大利亚高压脊偏强及西南太平洋热带地区高低层纬向风距平差为负值时, 来自南半球冷空气活动偏弱, 有利于西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏南, 热带季风偏弱, 我国夏季雨带偏南。反之, 当澳大利亚高压脊偏弱及西南太平洋热带地区高低层纬向风距平差为正值时, 我国北方降水偏多。同时, 定义了澳大利亚冬季风指数, 指出澳大利亚冬季风强年和弱年影响我国夏季旱涝分布异常的水汽输送型式不同。     

北非和青藏高原感热振荡特征及与我国东部夏季降水的关系

利用EOF方法,分析了NCEP/NCAR 1948—2002年再分析资料中月平均全球地面感热资料,揭示了北非和青藏高原感热的振荡特征。分析了振荡关键区的感热距平与我国东部51个测站1951—2000年汛期降水距平的相关关系,用SVD方法分析了关键区感热距平场与我国东部51个测站全年各月降水距平场的空间耦合和时滞关系及关键区感热异常对我国东部降水异常的影响。结果表明,北非和青藏高原两个区域的感热变化呈负相关,它们对我国华北、江淮和华南三个区域的汛期降水滞后影响明显。感热对我国降水的影响以年代际为主。     

基于植被-土壤二向反射模型的土壤含水量遥感

以北京地区为例，利用像元信息分解法，定量提取出区域植被盖度，由植被盖度得到区域叶面积指数，在只考虑一次散射的情况下，利用植被-土壤二向反射模型，提取出下层湿润土壤反射率。通过引入粗糙度因子建立起粗糙地表下土壤反射率与叶面积指数的函数关系，进而得出土壤含水量。     

两种坐标转换模型的精度比较

本文介绍了两种常用的坐标转换模型和最小二乘配置坐标转换方法,并以徐州市基础测绘北京54和西安80平面坐标的转换为例,比较了二维多项式变换模型和相似变换模型的精度。最后分析了两种模型的优劣。同时,提出了利用QR矩阵分解法来解决最小二乘法矩阵求逆导致的数值不稳定问题。