青藏高原东部地区的大气电特征

对青藏高原东部地区大气电热特征的分析发现：晴天大气电场的日变化呈单峰单谷型,峰值出现在０４：００￣０５：００左右,谷值出现在１７：００￣１８：００左右;雷暴电荷结构主要为偶极性,雷暴持续时间短,大约有７３．３％的雷暴持续时间小于０．５ｈ,闪电较少。不同降水过程的雷暴,地面电场特征不同。负地闪比正地闪多,正负地闪的比例约为１：８。７７．８％的负地闪为单次回击,正地闪均为单次回击。正地闪比负地闪的强度     

优化偏最小二乘光度法同时测定铑铱钯的研究

采用局部加权、随机矩阵法等步骤,使建立的校准模型能充分反映未知样品的数字结构特征,达到优化的目的,从而改善偏最小二乘法在处理实际未知样品数据时的解析能力,以提高计算结果的精度。用该优化偏最小二乘法对模拟地质样品中痕量贵金属Ｒｈ、Ｉｒ、Ｐｄ进行多组分光度测定,其分析结果的相对误差均小于１０％;分别测定９．５μｇ／Ｌ、３５．０μｇ／Ｌ、６６．０μｇ／Ｌ含量的Ｒｈ、Ｉｒ和Ｐｄ７次,其标准偏差Ｒｈ为０．２;Ｉｒ为１．１;Ｐｄ为２．０。     

两种风场分解方法计算动能收支对比研究

使用两种风场分解方法，计算了旋转风和辐散风功能收支方程各项时空平均值，结果表明两者差异不大，具有一定程度的可比性。     

森林生物化学与CASI高光谱分辨率遥感数据的相关分析

该文介绍了利用光谱范围约 417— 80 0nm的航空高光谱分辨率数据估计森叶族叶化学成分浓度的分析方法。沿横跨美国俄勒冈州中西部收集 6个研究立地上的小型机载成象光谱仪 (CASI)数据。 3个族叶化学成分 [总叶绿素 (TC)、全氮 (TN)和全磷 (TP) ]从相同的研究立地取样并在实验室测定。使用多元统计和光谱微分技术评价CASI数据用于估计冠层生化浓度的潜力和效率。 12个族叶化学成分样本被测定 ,并同时在相同立地上提取CASI图象数据。 7个单回归模型被用来探索单波段和植被指数与 3个化学成分的线性与非线性相关关系及预测效果。光谱微分技术被用来压缩背景噪音对目标光谱的影响。利用CASI原始光谱、一阶和二阶微分光谱数据和逐步回归分析来预测TC、TN和TP。结果表明采用光谱微分技术能显著地改善由拟合度 (R2 )和均方根差(SE)描述的森林冠层化学成分浓度的估计精度。由单波段分析的结果说明族叶化学与CASI数据间的相关性很低。事实上 ,对于TP ,CASI原始数据与实验室测定的数据几乎无关     

Recalibration of mutually consistent garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite geothermometers

Garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite geothermometers have been consistently calibrated, using the results of Fe²⁺–Mg cation exchange experiments and utilizing recently evaluated nonideal mixing properties of garnet. Nonideal mixing parameters of biotite (including Fe, Mg, Al^VI, and Ti) and of cordierite (involving Fe and Mg) are evaluated in terms of iterative multiple least-square regressions of the experimental results. Assuming the presence of ferric Fe in biotite in relation to the coexisting Fe-oxide phases (Case A), and assuming the absence of ferric Fe in biotite (Case B), two formulae of garnet–biotite thermometer have been derived. The garnet–cordierite geothermometer was constructed using Margules parameters of garnet adopted in the garnet–biotite geothermometers. The newly calibrated garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite thermometers clearly show improved conformity in the calculated temperatures. The thermometers give temperatures that are consistent with each other using natural garnet–biotite–cordierite assemblages within ±50 °C. The effects of ferric Fe in biotite on garnet–biotite thermometry have been evaluated comparing the two calibrations of the thermometer. The effects are significant; it is clarified that taking ferric Fe content in biotite into account leads to less dispersion of thermometric results.     

May 2003 Disaster in Sri Lanka and Cyclone 01-B in the Bay of Bengal

Heavy rainfall deluged South-Western Sri Lanka between the 11th and19th of May 2003 and led to its worst disaster in 50 years. Floods andlandslides claimed 260 lives. The World Meteorological Organizationcited it as evidence for the increase of anomalous climatic extremes inrecent years. Here, a meteorological analysis is presented of this disasteras part of a sustained effort to undertake meteorological applications fordisaster management. There were intense low-level westerlies over SriLanka related to cyclone 01-B that made its way across the Bay of Bengalat least 700 km away. The southeastwardly traverse of the cyclone wasstalled for a few days by anomalous north-westerly geostrophic windsver South Asia. Here, it is argued that orographic rainfall induced bythis stalled cyclone and seasonal inter-tropical convergence zone cloudbands over Sri Lanka led to the deluge. The trajectory of the cyclone wasremote from Sri Lanka and this led to no cyclone hazard warnings beingissued. No cyclones have made landfall in Sri Lanka in May in the last100 years. This study shows that one must exercise vigilance not only inthe path of the cyclone but also remotely due to the modulation of thecyclone by other atmospheric phenomenon and topographic features.This flood may have been predicted with contemporary local area weatherprediction models and this example points to the need for the developmentof local area weather prediction models as part of disaster warning systems.This study also demonstrates the use of meteorological diagnostics forpost-event analysis of hydrometeorology of disaster events.     

东营市相对湿度集成预报系统

运用多元回归法和多因子权重回归法分别建立预报模型，并在此基础上建立了相对湿度集成预报系统。     

旅游景区客流规模特征与影响因素研究——以江苏省204家景区为例

以江苏省204家4A级及以上景区为例,利用手机信令漫游监测所得的旅游客流客源数据,基于Zifp法则表现江苏景区年客流量的位序-规模特征,在全省景区旅游客流规模的不同组间差异特征分析的基础上,使用多元线性回归和最优标度回归方法研究了景区客流规模的影响因素。研究表明：① 省域目的地内部景区客流规模等级明显,省外客源的客流规模分布较省内差异大,更符合首位型分布特征;② 全省整体客流的季节性不明显,各景区的季节性较强,不同产品类型的景区存在季节波动性差异;③ 景区客流受景区等级、季节性、市中心距离、所在城市经济发展水平等因素的影响,省内外客流在部分因素影响程度上存在明显差异,景区季节波动增大会显著降低其接待的省内客流规模。对优化景区客流规模等级体系和目的地区域空间结构提出建议。     

最大值函数对建筑物沉降的回归分析

为有效地对建筑物的沉降进行回归分析,本文以新城花园酒店为例,用幂级数和最大值函数两种回归函数对观测数据进行分析,通过显著性检验值和均方差的大小来推测建筑沉降的规律,并根据分析预测结果来评价两种回归函数的性能,理论分析和实验表明:采用最大值函数和幂级数对LS5的观测数据进行回归分析都能够达到建筑物沉降变形的精度要求,但最大值函数的性能优于幂级数。     

中国人口老龄化区域差异及驱动机制研究

基于中国第五、六次人口普查数据,分析中国省域人口老龄化的程度、速度、社会经济影响、空间差异及其驱动机制。结果表明：① 2000~2010年中国人口老龄化处于初级老龄化阶段且不断加深,区域差异缩小,东部地区低速增长,中西部地区老龄化与养老负担快速增加。老年人口密度属较低密度区,从东向西呈梯度降低。② 中国省域人口老龄化程度及空间布局是人口自然增长、人口机械增长、经济水平等因素相互调节与空间分异的综合结果。③ 各机制系数空间异质性的综合作用促使老龄化大致由南北向分异转变为东西向分异的空间格局。省际人口迁移从根本上制约如今的中国人口老龄化空间格局。