Modeling and Diagnostic Studies on the Variations of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific from 1880 to 1999

Index series of Subtropical High over the western Pacific was extended to AD 1880 by using of statistical and modeling method.Reconstructed indices by both methods show good accordance each other.Association of the indices to the rainfall patterns over eastern China indicated the robustness of the reconstructions.     

The effects of fracture roughness on P-wave velocity

Artificial fractures were created on three different rock samples by sawing. The fracture surfaces were in turn grooved in different directions by sawing to simulate the fracture roughness. Four different roughness types were created and a fracture roughness coefficient (FRC) was defined for each type. Model experiments were carried out on the rock samples having different fracture roughness to investigate how the sound velocity varies with fracture roughness.

The test results were statistically analysed using the method of least squares regression and polynomial relationships with high correlation coefficient were found between the FRC values and the P-wave velocities. The P-wave velocity decreases with increasing the FRC values.     

两种风场分解方法计算动能收支对比研究

使用两种风场分解方法，计算旋转风和辐散风动能收支方程各项时空平均值，结果表明两者差异不大，具有一定程度的可比性。     

An investigation of the relationship between uniaxial compressive strength and degradation for selected rock types

The relationship between uniaxial compressive strength and degradation was investigated for selected rock types, by using regression analyses to determine whether degradation was a useful predictor of compressive strength. In addition, the effects of aggregate particle size, number of hammer blows during the degradation test, engineering index properties, petrographic characteristics, and water saturation on the compressive strength-degradation relationship were evaluated. The results show that strong inverse relationships exist between compressive strength and degradation (measured on a 9.5-4.75-mm size aggregate) for sandstones and igneous/metamorphic rocks, but that no significant relationship exists for limestones/dolomites. The results also indicate a strong positive correlation between degradation and L.A. abrasion loss and can be used to establish a limit of allowable degradation for practical applications. Engineering index properties do not significantly affect the relationship between compressive strength and degradation but petrographic characteristics are important in explaining the strength and degradation behavior of the rocks studied. Water saturation decreases compressive strength and increases degradation to varying degrees.     

[OIII] Electron temperatures in planetary nebulae

Relative level populations for O III, derived using electron impact excitation rates calculated with the R-matrix code, are used to deduce the electron-temperature-sensitive emission-line ratioR=I(2s ²2p^{2 1}D–2s²2p21S)/I(2s² 2p23P_1,2–2s²2p^{2 1}D) =I(4363 Å)/I(4959 + 5007 Å) for a range ofTe = (7500–20000 K) applicable to planetary nebulae. Electron temperatures deduced from the observed values ofR in several planetary nebulae are in excellent agreement with those determined fromTe-sensitive line ratios in other species, including CIII]/C [II], [NII] and [ArIII], which provides support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the level population calculations.     

均值生成函数的周期性延拓在回归分析中存在的问题及其改进方案

针对均值生成函数的周期性延拓在回归分析中存在的回归前提不同,预报因子是预报量的非独立表现等缺点,给出了改进方案。实例分析计算表明：新方案可以有效地消除原方案中存在的非独立虚假相关现象,从而使得筛选出周期性预报因子更加客观。基于本方案所建立的数学预报模型,具有历史拟合率与多步长预报精度基本一致的特点,是一种具有使用价值的长期预报手段,也有一定的隐含周期分辨能力。     

夜光遥感支持下的城市人口核密度空间化及自相关分析

基于福建省福州市鼓楼区街道社区人口统计数据、夜光遥感影像、Landsat8影像,融合核密度与回归方程,绘制30 m栅格空间分辨率的人口密度图并进行空间自相关分析。方法:① 采用核密度方法对69个社区人口计算生成人口密度分布图。建立786个居民小区点的人口密度与夜光遥感的常规QQ分位图,检测出人口密度存在较大的误差区域:五凤街道和洪山镇。② 建立人口密度与夜光遥感、Landsat8线性分解的不可渗透表面影像之间的二元二次回归方程,修正两个区域的人口密度误差。③ 采用高/低聚类分析、热点分析、聚类和异常值分析,得到鼓楼区人口高聚类属性,显示了鼓楼区最大商业圈区域与人口密度最大居民点区域,展示了人口聚类的空间局部差异性格局。结果:① 研究中所采用的人口空间化技术融合了2种空间化方法:核密度与回归方程。生成30 m栅格空间分辨率的人口密度图。② 鼓楼区人口密度均值分为3种类型:11 000、25 000和50 000人/ km²,人口密度分布近似正态分布。③ 当鼓楼区人口密度均值大于33 000人/ km²,不可渗透表面灰度值与人口密度相关性更强。反之,夜光亮度值与人口密度相关性更强。     

Empirical regression models using NDVI, rainfall and temperature data for the early prediction of wheat grain yields in Morocco

In Morocco, no operational system actually exists for the early prediction of the grain yields of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). This study proposes empirical ordinary least squares regression models to forecast the yields at provincial and national levels. The predictions were based on dekadal (10-daily) NDVI/AVHRR, dekadal rainfall sums and average monthly air temperatures. The Global Land Cover raster map (GLC2000) was used to select only the NDVI pixels that are related to agricultural land. Provincial wheat yields were assessed with errors varying from 80 to 762 kg ha⁻¹, depending on the province. At national level, wheat yield was predicted at the third dekad of April with 73 kg ha⁻¹ error, using NDVI and rainfall. However, earlier forecasts are possible, starting from the second dekad of March with 84 kg ha⁻¹ error, at least 1 month before harvest. At the provincial and national levels, most of the yield variation was accounted for by NDVI. The proposed models can be used in an operational context to early forecast wheat yields in Morocco.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

Models for predicting the seepage velocity and seepage force in a fiber reinforced silty soil

Randomly reinforced soil is used in hydraulic projects such as temporary canals, earth dams, stream restoration and so on for controlling seepage. This paper presents an investigation into the effect of random reinforcement on the seepage velocity and seepage force in a silty soil. Experimental tests were carried out on randomly reinforced samples with two types of fiber at different lengths and percentages. The results show that the random reinforcement of soils with fiber is an effective technique in controlling the seepage velocity and seepage force. Regression models were developed based on the experimental data for determination the seepage velocity and seepage force. The proposed models include the length of fiber, fiber content of soil and hydraulic gradient. Comparison between the model predictions and the experimental results shows that the proposed models can satisfactorily predict the seepage velocity and seepage force for a randomly reinforced silty soil. Analysis of the results of the proposed models shows that the seepage velocity increases with increasing the hydraulic gradient but decreases with increasing fiber length and fiber content. In addition the seepage force increases with increasing the fiber length and fiber content of the soil.