渤海秋末初冬一次强寒潮天气过程分析

本文利用天气学和动力诊断相结合的方法,对渤海秋末初冬一次强寒潮天气过程进行了分析。提出了渤海冷空气大风发生和维持的主要机制。     

沙化土地遥感评价方法

 应用遥感数据,通过建立线性回归模型,进行沙化土地评价因子的反演,并以地面调查为基础进行遥感评价方法研究,探讨 遥感技术在沙化土地评价中应用的有效途径。     

Estimation of suspended sediment concentration and yield using linear models,random forests and quantile regression forests

For sediment yield estimation, intermittent measurements of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) have to be interpolated to derive a continuous sedigraph. Traditionally, sediment rating curves (SRCs) based on univariate linear regression of discharge and SSC (or the logarithms thereof) are used but alternative approaches (e.g. fuzzy logic, artificial neural networks, etc.) exist. This paper presents a comparison of the applicability of traditional SRCs, generalized linear models (GLMs) and non‐parametric regression using Random Forests (RF) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) applied to a dataset of SSC obtained for four subcatchments (0·08, 41, 145 and 445 km²) in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. The observed SSCs are highly variable and range over six orders of magnitude. For these data, traditional SRCs performed inadequately due to the over‐simplification of relating SSC solely to discharge. Instead, the multitude of acting processes required more flexibility to model these nonlinear relationships. Thus, alternative advanced machine learning techniques that have been successfully applied in other disciplines were tested. GLMs provide the option of including other relevant process variables (e.g. rainfall intensities and temporal information) but require the selection of the most appropriate predictors. For the given datasets, the investigated variable selection methods produced inconsistent results. All proposed GLMs showed an inferior performance, whereas RF and QRF proved to be very robust and performed favourably for reproducing sediment dynamics. QRF additionally provides estimates on the accuracy of the predictions and thus allows the assessment of uncertainties in the estimated sediment yield that is not commonly found in other methods. The capabilities of RF and QRF concerning the interpretation of predictor effects are also outlined. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆温泉水平摆年变影响因素分析

以温泉水平摆观测数据及温泉气象资料为研究对象,利用相关、回归分析,讨论温泉水平摆两分向年变的影响因素,研究结果表明:①气温、水位是影响温泉水平摆NS向年变主要因素,它们之间具有准线性关系,NS向相位滞后气温约51天、滞后水位约17天;②气温是影响温泉水平摆EW向年变的主要因素,它们之间具有准线性关系,EW向滞后气温27天,但是水位与温泉水平摆EW向年变基本无关;③气压与温泉水平摆两分向年变基本无关。     

武汉市夏季城市热岛与不透水面增温强度时空分布

城市化的不断发展使自然地表不断被不透水面所取代,城市地表温度高于乡村,形成了显著的热岛效应。城市热岛给城市生态发展与人类健康带来了严重的负面影响,对其空间模式与背后形成机制的研究意义重大。本文以武汉市为例,基于2001、2007和2016年夏季Landsat系列影像使用辐射传导方程法反演了城市地表温度,并采用MOD11A1数据进行了验证;同时,计算了不同时期的城市温度等级和热岛比例指数,分析了城市热岛的时空变化。此外,为了探究热岛效应形成的主要原因,即不透水面与热环境的关系,全局角度使用多元线性回归分析对比了其增温效果与植被水体降温效果的强弱,空间局部角度采用地理加权回归结合地形数据得到了其增温强度的时空变化。结果表明：① 辐射传导方程法适用于实验中研究区的反演;武汉市城市热岛比例指数先增后减,但温度等级高的地区仍在不断扩张;② 多元线性回归可以准确地反映不同地表覆盖对地表温度的影响,R^2值为0.910,总体上武汉市不透水面的增温效果强于植被的降温效果,并弱于水体的降温效果; ③ 2001-2016年不透水面增温强度较高区域的分布呈现“单中心”到“多中心”的变化趋势,由单一集中于中心城区变为了分散集中于三环线附近的汉阳沌口工业区、青山工业区、阳逻开发区和东西湖区等地区。综上所述,武汉市夏季热环境问题仍然较为严重,城市外部地区的不透水面增温强度正在逐渐增大,规划治理应当给予这些地区更多的关注。     

Fast Geographically Weighted Regression (FastGWR): a scalable algorithm to investigate spatial process heterogeneity in millions of observations

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a widely used tool for exploring spatial heterogeneity of processes over geographic space. GWR computes location-specific parameter estimates, which makes its calibration process computationally intensive. The maximum number of data points that can be handled by current open-source GWR software is approximately 15,000 observations on a standard desktop. In the era of big data, this places a severe limitation on the use of GWR. To overcome this limitation, we propose a highly scalable, open-source FastGWR implementation based on Python and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) that scales to the order of millions of observations. FastGWR optimizes memory usage along with parallelization to boost performance significantly. To illustrate the performance of FastGWR, a hedonic house price model is calibrated on approximately 1.3 million single-family residential properties from a Zillow dataset for the city of Los Angeles, which is the first effort to apply GWR to a dataset of this size. The results show that FastGWR scales linearly as the number of cores within the High-Performance Computing (HPC) environment increases. It also outperforms currently available open-sourced GWR software packages with drastic speed reductions – up to thousands of times faster – on a standard desktop.     

SEDIMENT YIELD IN TURKISH RIVERS

1INTRODUCTIONThegrowingsignificanceofhydraulicpotentialuseinTurkeyhastheattentionstoreliablelong-termhydrologicaldatacollectionfordesigningthehydroprojectseffectively.Sedimentloadtransportedbytileriveristhemostimportantoneamongthesehydrologicaldata.Earlydatacollectionbyin-situmeasurementswasinitiatedaround1958bytheGeneralDirectorateofStateHydraulicWorks(DSI)andcontinuedonlyfortheprojectsunderdesignperiod.However,earlystudiesofsystematicdatacollectionhavebeenstartedbytheGeneralDirector…     

多元线性回归方法在地下水水位预测中的应用

在对已有长期开采资料的水源地进行资源评价时,充分利用长系列观测资料,可采用多元线性回归方法对地下水水位的变化规律进行研究对其变化趋势进行预测,本文重点对相关因素的确定和多元线性回归方法的应用进行了研究。     

黑云母—斜方辉石温度计的重新标度及其应用

黑云母斜方辉石是较为常见的共生矿物对, 它们之间 Ｆｅ Ｍｇ 交换模式反应的标准熵变与标准体积变化量之比很大, 具备了构成温度计的必要条件。根据 Ｆｏｎａｒｅｖ ａｎｄ Ｋｏｎｉｌｏｖ 的平衡实验数据, 考虑了黑云母、斜方辉石中 Ｆｅ Ｍｇ 的非理想混合效应, 得出了合理的黑云母、斜方辉石中 Ｆｅ Ｍｇ 的交换能数据。此外还采纳了 Ｄａｓｇｕｐｔａ 等关于黑云母活度的数据、ｖｏｎ Ｓｅｃｋｅｎｄｏｒｆｆ ａｎｄ Ｏ＇ Ｎｅｉｌｌ关于斜方辉石活度的数据和 Ｐａｔｔｉｎｏ Ｄｏｕｃｅ 等关于黑云母中 ＡｌⅥ、 Ｔｉ对黑云母活度效应的数据, 重新标度了黑云母斜方辉石温度计。该温度计重现实验温度的误差为±６０℃, 应用于天然岩石的温度计算误差一般小于±７０℃, 适用于绿帘角闪岩相至麻粒岩相的变质岩变质温度的估算。     

我国淮河流域夏季降水长期预报的回归模型的初步研究

本文用１９５１－１９９６年资料,研究了我国淮河流域夏季降水的前期大气环流及北半球海平面气压场的异常特征．结果表明,秋季中国南海地区、冬季１月份白令海地区的海平面气压中有预报我国淮河流域夏季雨型的强信号。前者有很长的预时效,并且与ＥＬ Ｎｉｏｎ事件有关。用１９５１－１９９５年４５年资料建立的二因子回归预报模型的复相关系数可达到０．６６。