江苏南部汛期降水日变化特征分析

利用江苏南部20个气象观测站2008—2012年汛期(5—10月)逐小时降水资料,应用降水频率来分析了江苏南部地区降水日变化基本特征和区域差异。研究表明:降水日变化特征地域性差异较强,西部站、东部站和东北沿海站都存在一定的特征差异。东部站降水量的最大值主要出现在下午和傍晚;西部站降水量主峰值出现在下午,并且在清晨和夜间还有两个次峰值;东北沿海站呈现出午前、午后的双峰值形式。2008—2011年降水量下午高值区有先减弱后增强并提前的趋势,而上午的高值区有总体减弱并推迟的特征。2011年后有明显减弱的趋势。江苏南部总体来说,短时强降水(大于20和25 mm/h)在16—19时出现主峰值,07—09时也有相对较小的次峰值。     

我国海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异与演变分析

劳动生产率差异是导致区域经济发展差异的重要原因,提高劳动生产率是促进经济增长的有效手段。分析我国海洋经济的劳动生产率的区域差异与演变对发展我国海洋经济具有积极意义。在分析我国海洋经济劳动生产率的特点基础上,文章运用基尼系数和泰尔指数计算我国沿海地区1997—2014年海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异,并进行σ-收敛性检验,结果表明区域差异呈现倒V字形走势,1997—2005年呈现σ-发散,2005—2014年呈现σ-收敛。采用泰尔指数分解方法测度表明,环渤海、长三角、泛珠三角三大经济区海洋经济劳动生产率地区内差异占总体差异的比重达80%以上,而地区间差异比重较小,环渤海经济区地区内差异最大。分阶段对我国各沿海地区海洋经济的劳动生产率进行排名并观察演变过程。提出提高我国海洋经济劳动生产率的相关建议:一是努力提高海洋经济全要素生产率;二是促进海洋产业合理布局,努力提高传统海洋产业劳动生产率;三是统筹区域海洋经济发展。     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000508

This paper presents the results of a set of numerical models focussing on structural controls on hydrothermal mineralization.We first give an overview of natural phenomena of structurally-controlled ore formation and the background theory and mechanisms for such controls. We then provide the results of a group of simple 2D numerical models validated through comparison with Cu-vein structure observed near the Shilu Copper deposit(Yangchun,Guangdong Province, China) and finally a case study of 3D numerical modelling applied to the Hodgkinson Province in North Queensland(Australia).Two modelling approaches,discrete deformation modelling and continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow modelling,are involved.The 2D model-derived patterns are remarkably consistent with the Cu-vein structure from the Shilu Copper deposit,and show that both modelling approaches can realistically simulate the mechanical behaviours of shear and dilatant fractures.The continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow model indicates that pattern of the Cuveins near the Shilu deposit is the result of shear strain localization,development of dilation and fluid focussing into the dilatant fracture segments.The 3D case-study models(with deformation and fluid flow coupling) on the Hodgkinson Province generated a number of potential gold mineralization targets.     

三峡及邻区晚第三纪以来构造应力场特征探讨

用三峡及邻区（东经１０８°～１１３°，北纬２９°～３３°）地质资料，地震资料，现 场地应力测量资料论证三峡及邻区晚第三纪以来构造应力场稳定性及其分区特 征。     

Quasi-static analysis of strike fault growth in layered media

We study the effects of structural inhomogeneity on the quasi-static growth of strike-slip faults. A layered medium is considered, made up of an upper layer bounded by a free surface and welded to a lower half-space with different elastic property. Mode III crack is employed as a mathematical model of strike-slip fault, which is nucleated in the lower half-space and then propagates towards the interface. We adopt FEM-β, newly proposed analysis method for failure, to simulate the quasi-statistic crack growth governed by the stress distribution in layered media. Our results show that along planar traces across interfaces a compliant upper layer has significant effects on promoting/suppressing crack growth before/after its extension into the layer and vice versa for a rigid one. This proposes a possibility that surface breaks due to strike-slip faulting could be arrested by deposit layers at the topmost part of the Earth's crust.     

B-polarization induction in two thin half-sheets coupled to the mantle by a conducting crust—II. Solution by the mode-matching method, the fields above the conductors, and example results

The mode-matching method is used to obtain an exact analytical solution to the problem of B -polarization induction in two adjacent thin half-sheets, lying on a conducting layer that is terminated by a perfect conductor at finite depth. These components of the model represent, respectively, the Earth's conducting surface layers, crust, and mantle. In dimensionless variables, the model has three independent parameters, these being the two thin-sheet conductances and the layer thickness. The mode-matching solution obtained in this paper is shown to be identical lo that derived via the Wiener-Hopf method in a companion paper (Dawson 1996), and so provides additional verification of that solution. As was shown in the companion paper, the solution for the present model contains, as special limiting cases, those for three models considered earlier by various authors. The second part of the present paper addresses the solutions for the electric fields in the non-conducting half-space above the conductors, which represents the atmosphere. In the final part, sample numerical calculations are presented to illustrate the solution.     

Comparative spatio-spectral heterogeneity analysis using multispectral and hyperspectral airborne images

Knowledge of spatio-spectral heterogeneity within multisensor remote sensing images across visible, near-infrared and short wave infrared spectra is important. Till now, little comparative research on spatio-spectral heterogeneity has been conducted on real multisensor images, especially on both multispectral and hyperspectral airborne images. In this study, four airborne images, Airborne Thematic Mapper, Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager, Specim AISA Eagle and AISI Hawk hyperspectral airborne images of woodland and heath landscapes at Harwood, UK, were applied to quantify and evaluate the differences in spatial heterogeneity through semivariogram modelling. Results revealed that spatial heterogeneity of multisensor airborne images has a close relationship with spatial and spectral resolution and wavelength. Within the visible, near-infrared spectra and short wave infrared spectra, greater spatial heterogeneity is generally observed from the relatively longer wavelength in short wave infrared spectra. There are dramatic changes across the red and red edge spectra, and the peak value is generally examined in the red middle or red edge wavelength across the visible and near-infrared spectra for vegetation or non-vegetation landscape respectively. In all, for real multisensor airborne images, the change in spatial heterogeneity with spatial resolution will accord with the change of support theory depending on whether dramatic change exists across the corresponding wavelength. Besides, if with close spatial resolution, the spatial heterogeneity of multispectral images might be far from the overall integration of these bands from the hyperspectral images involved. A comparative assessment of spatio-spectral heterogeneity using real hyperspectral and multispectral airborne images provides practical guidance for designing the placement and width of a spectral band for different applications and also makes a contribution to the understanding of how to reconcile spatial patterns generated by multisensors.     

Observations And Modelling Of The On-Ice And Off-Ice Air Flow Over The Northern Baltic Sea

Two cases of on-ice and off-ice air flow characterizing the opposite weather situations over the ice-edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea are analysed on the basis of aircraft observations, and modelled using atwo-dimensional mesoscale model. The stable boundary layer (SBL) during theon-ice flow exhibited little thermal modification, but a low-level jet (LLJ) was generated at the 250-m high top of the SBL. In the model, the LLJ was associated with inertial oscillations in space, while the baroclinicity explained the shape of the wind profile well above the SBL. Although the observed LLJ was most pronounced over the ice, the modelling suggests that it was not generated by the ice edge but by the coastline some 400 km upwind of the ice edge, where a much more drastic change in the thermal stratification and surface roughness took place. The generation, maintenance, and strength of the LLJ were very sensitive to the parameterization of turbulent mixing in the SBL. In the case of the off-ice flow, the modification of the air mass and the development of a convective boundary layer (CBL) both over the ice and open sea were reasonably well modelled. Sensitivity runs suggested that it was essential to take into account the effects of subgrid-scale leads, a forest in the archipelago (which was crossed by the air flow), and water vapour condensationinto ice crystals. The heat flux from leads was particularly important for the heatbudget of the CBL, and the observed growth of the CBL was partly due to theeffective mixing over the rough and relatively warm forest.