SRES情景下多模式集合对淮河流域未来气候变化的预估

采用偏差修正/空间降尺度方法处理后的IPCC AR4中8个全球海气耦合模式的集合平均结果,分析了SRESA2、A1B和B1情景下淮河流域未来30 a(2011 2040年)相对于现状(1961 1990年)地面温度和降水的可能变化.结果表明:(1)多模式集合能较好地反映流域现状年、季温度和降水的大尺度空间分布特征;对温度和降水的年内分配过程模拟较好,各月温度集合平均与观测值相差0.2℃左右(冬季各月除外),而降水集合平均与观测值相对误差在5%左右(9月除外).(2)不同情景下未来流域年、季温度一致增加,年温度增加幅度在0.85～1.12℃之间;冬、春季温度增加相对明显,而夏、秋季温度增加并不显著;年际和年代际温度增加趋势显著.(3)不同情景下未来流域年降水有增加趋势,增加幅度为0.13%～5.24%,增幅不明显;降水季节变化有增有减,季节、年际和年代际降水变化较为复杂,不同情景下降水空间变化差异显著.     

AREMS/973模式系统对2004年中国汛期降水实时预报检验

2004年夏季5～8月，AREMS/973模式系统投入了业务运行，模式区域主要覆盖了中国大陆及周边临近地区，该模式系统基于中国气象局MICAPS/9210业务数据平台，每天2次、完全自动的实时预报24 h累积降水。作者主要对每日0000 UTC时起报的24 h累积降水预报场进行综合检验，由此对AREMS/973模式系统的24 h降水预报能力给予客观的评价。AREMS/973模式系统对于中国汛期降水具有很强的预报能力，其24 h 累积降水的月总降水分布很好地反应了汛期各时期主雨带的位置、强度及范围，同时该模式系统能够准确预报出独立降水事件的发生和发展，其中，长江中下游和东北地区预报降水与观测降水的时间位相吻合最好；除了5月和8月华北地区、5月西南东部地区、以及5月和6月长江中下游地区，AREMS/973模式系统预报的降水强度总体上弱于观测降水强度，且对于25 mm 以上量级的降水过程， 模式预报的降水范围小于观测降水范围。AREMS/973模式系统预报降水的能力随着降水量级的增大而减小，降水量级愈大，模式预报技巧愈低，对于50 mm 以上量级的降水过程，模式系统预报降水事件的发生概率类似于随机偶然事件的发生概率。5月，长江中下游地区降水预报略优于其他地区，其次是华南地区，6月雨带北移至江南和江淮地区，此时，长江中下游地区降水预报显著优于其他地区，7月末至8月华北雨季开始，降水预报最优区北移至华北地区，即AREMS/973模式系统降水预报最优区随着雨带的北移而北移，主雨带所在区域往往也是模式降水预报最优的地区。作者对此进行了初步探讨。     

基于分频波形拟合方法的鲁甸M_S6.5地震序列震源机制解研究

2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震造成了极大的人员伤亡和经济损失,其孕震机理和动力学成因为国内外学者广泛关注.由于目前的反演主要采用单一的反演方法进行处理,导致结果的不确定性较大,使得该地震的发震构造及孕震机理等问题仍存在较大争议.针对目前研究存在的不足,本文基于近震波形求解震源机制解的gCAP(general Cut And Paste)方法和全波形拟合方法,分别反演了鲁甸地震主震及其9次余震的震源机制解,以此评价近震数据反演震源机制解结果的可靠性与稳定性.结果表明数据方位角覆盖对gCAP解的稳定性有较大影响.针对全波形拟合方法反演过程中,低频信号稳定、高频信号解析度高的特点,采用0.01～0.05Hz和0.01～0.2Hz分频段波形拟合思路:在低频段剔除拟合差的数据,进一步在高频段进行高解析度波形拟合,从而获得主震可靠稳定的震源机制解.研究结果表明鲁甸地震主震倾角为76°～83°、滑动角为-157°～-164°,为一次高倾角走滑型地震.两种方法获得的余震震源机制解比较一致,验证了结果的可靠性.研究结果显示,鲁甸地震的高倾角破裂特征,会导致其能量释放快速且完整,这可能是导致鲁甸地震地面破坏加重及缺乏较大震级余震的主要原因.     

亚洲季风与ENSO对新加坡降雨影响的初步研究

根据1800-1989年(110年)的资料,分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是:新加坡年平均降雨量存在准2-6年和18年的周期振荡;亚洲季风以及ENSO对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在El Nino年,新加坡降雨量多为负距平;而在反El Nino年,新加坡降雨量多为正距平。      

Decoupling of nutrient and grazer impacts on a benthic estuarine diatom assemblage

Strong interactions between top-down (consumptive) and bottom-up (resource supply) trophic factors occur in many aquatic communities, but these forces can act independently in some microphytobenthic communities. Within benthic estuarine diatom assemblages, the dynamics of these interactions and how they vary with abiotic environmental conditions are not well understood. We conducted a field experiment at two sites with varying habitat characteristics to investigate the interactive effects of grazers and nutrients on benthic estuarine diatoms. We crossed snail (Cerithidea californica) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) addition treatments in enclosures on a restored tidal sandflat and a reference tidal mudflat in Mugu Lagoon, southern California. We repeated the study in summer 2000 and spring 2001 to assess temporal variation in the interactions. Snails caused a large decrease in diatom relative abundance and biomass (estimated as surface area); nutrients increased diatom abundance but did not alter diatom biomass. Snails and nutrients both reduced average diatom length, although the nutrient effect was weaker and temporally variable, occurring in the reference mudflat in the spring. There were few interactions between snail and nutrient addition treatments, suggesting that links between top-down and bottom-up forces on the diatom community were weak. There were no consistent differences in diatom assemblage characteristics between the two study sites, despite marked differences in sediment grain size and other abiotic characteristics between the sites. The strong diatom response to herbivores and weaker responses to enrichment differed from the previous studies where cyanobacteria increased in response to nutrient enrichment, further dissolving the “black box” perception of microphytobenthic communities.     

Slow steps towards management of the world's largest tuna fishery

Today, the tuna fishery of the western and central Pacific is one of the world's largest fisheries. Annual catches exceed 2 million mt—approximately 50% of the global tuna catch—with an estimated landed value of USD 3 billion (in 2005). The fishery expanded rapidly from the mid 1980s, following the development of the purse-seine fishery. From the mid 1990s, it was recognised that a Regional Fisheries Management Organisation was required to facilitate cooperation in the management of the resource. Following almost a decade of negotiations and planning, the Western and Central Pacific Fishery Commission (WCPFC) was established in 2004. During the interim period, stock assessments for the key tuna species were developed and revealed that for two species (yellowfin and bigeye tuna) there was concern regarding the increased levels of fishing mortality. However, declarations and resolutions calling for restraint in the expansion of fishing effort were largely unheeded over the last decade and, to date, the WCPFC has been unable to introduce any measures to effectively reduce (or limit) the level of fishing mortality on yellowfin and bigeye tuna. This paper proposes a number of mechanisms for improving the performance of the WCPFC with respect to meeting the conservation and management objectives of the commission and argues that Pacific Island nations need to collectively take the lead to ensure the effective management of the resource.     

我国区域经济β-趋同的空间计量分析

运用Moran’s I指数检验了我国各省区人均GDP的空间相关性,结果表明,我国各省区的人均GDP存在显著的正空间相关,而传统的趋同检验方法未能消除异方差和自相关的影响。选用能消除异方差和自相关的空间计量模型对我国省际条件β-趋同进行检验,结果表明,我国各省区间存在条件β-趋同,趋同速度大约为2.05%,高于传统趋同经验研究得到的2%趋同速度。     

Regional cooperation for European seas: Governance models in support of the implementation of the MSFD

During the implementation process of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), Member States are expected to cooperate and coordinate at the regional sea level as wells as arrange stakeholder involvement. However, the MSFD does not specify any governing structures to do so. The aim of this paper is to address these key challenges of the MSFD by developing four governance models for regional cooperation and assess their impact on governance performance. The four models are based on the building blocks of stakeholder involvement (low or high) and decision-making power (binding or non-binding decisions): (1) Cross-border platforms; (2) Regional Sea Convention-PLUS; (3) Advisory Alliance and (4) Regional Sea Assembly. Secondly, the paper will do an ex ante assessment on how the alternative models will have an impact on governance performance. The assessment criteria for governance performance are: (a) costs to set up and run a model; (b) capacity to cooperate; (c) policy coordination; (d) institutional ambiguity; and (e) implementation drift. In addition to this assessment of the performance based on expert judgement (i.e. scientists of WP7 of the ODEMM project), 4 roundtable discussions have been undertaken in which stakeholders from the four regional seas did an assessment of the four models. The main conclusion is that increasing stakeholder participation, a much desired development in regional organisation of marine management as expressed by the stakeholder community, will increase the costs of the policy making process. If stakeholder participation is not embedded in a wider institutional setting in which the participation of stakeholders is directly related to the policy process and the degree to which decisions taken are binding, the increase of costs does not lead to a more smoothly running model.     

Modeling the climatic effects of the land use/cover change in eastern China

This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.     

Discrepant chemical differentiation and magmatic-hydrothermal evolution of high-silica magmatism associated with Pb–Zn and W mineralization in the Lhasa terrane

High-silica (SiO₂ > 70 wt.%) granites (HSGs) are the main source of W, Sn, and rare metals. However, abundant HSGs, temporally, spatially, and genetically associated with Pb–Zn mineralization, in the Lhasa terrane (LT), provided an ideal opportunity to study the key factors responsible for Pb–Zn enrichment, instead of W–Sn enrichment. Here we contribute to this topic through U-Pb dating of zircon and garnet, and whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Hf isotopic geochemistry of ore-related quartz porphyries in the Bangbule deposit and compared these results with published data from large and giant Pb–Zn and W deposits in the LT. The magmatism-alteration-mineralization event in the Bangbule deposit was recorded by robust zircon U–Pb ages of 77.3 ± 0.9 Ma and hydrothermal garnet U–Pb ages of 75.7 ± 4.8 Ma, which is 10–15 Ma earlier than the main Paleocene metallogenic event and the first record of late Cretaceous Pb–Zn polymetallic mineralization in the LT. The late Cretaceous-Paleocene magmatism and mineralization events are a response to the subduction of Neotethyan oceanic lithosphere, which occurred as a result of the collision of the Indian and Asian plates. These HSGs related to Pb–Zn mineralization, with high total-alkalis and low magnesian contents, are enriched in Ba, Th, and Rb, but depleted in Ti, Eu, Sr, and P. They belong to either the S-type, or I-type granites. The Sr–Nd–Hf isotopic compositions of the Pb–Zn mineralized granites demonstrate that they were generated by the partial melting of Proterozoic basement with or without mantle-derived melt input. This was consistent with the postulated source of W enrichment in the LT. The Pb–Zn and W related granites have similar zircon-Ti-saturation temperatures, comparable low whole-rock Fe₂O₃/FeO ratios, and zircon oxygen fugacity. This indicated that the Pb–Zn–W enrichment in the high-silica magma system could be attributed to a relatively reduced magma. The Pb–Zn related HSGs, abundant quartz and feldspar phenocrysts, and weak fractionation of twin-elements in whole-rock analysis, can be used to reconstruct a model of the magma reservoir. We postulate that these features could be reproduced by silica-rich crystal accumulation in a magma reservoir, with a loss of magmatic fluids. The magma associated with W mineralization exhibited a higher level of differentiation compared to the Pb–Zn related magma; however, different groups of zircon texture with varying rare earth elements and concomitance of rare earth elements tetrad effect and high fractionation of twin-elements in whole-rock are formed by a magmatic-hydrothermal transition in highly evolved system. As the source and oxygen fugacities of the Pb–Zn and W related magmas are similar, the absence of a giant W–Sn deposit in the LT may indicate that parent magmas with a low degree of evolution and magmatic-hydrothermal transition are not conducive to their formation. This implies that the rocks that originated as highly evolved silicate-rich parent magmas, with a high degree of magmatic-hydrothermal alteration, would need to be targeted for W–Sn mineral exploration in the LT. In summary, our results emphasize that variations in chemical differentiation and the evolution of high-silica magmatic-hydrothermal systems can lead to differences in Pb–Zn and W enrichment. This has implications for the evaluation of the mineral potential of high-silica granites and hence their attractiveness as targets for mineral exploration.