2017年7月昭通冰雹天气分析

本文利用NCEP再分析资料、宜宾和威宁探空资料、昭通多普勒天气雷达观测资料对2017年7月昭通出现的冰雹灾害天气进行统计分析,结果表明出现的冰雹天气具有以下几个主要特征：1)冰雹的发生与西太平洋副热带高压、青藏高压有紧密的联系; 2)在干入侵、上干下湿、湿层深厚这三种中低空配置下昭通都可能会出现冰雹天气;3)订正到14时后的对流有效位能比08时的更具指示意义;4)冰雹云的最大回波强度在55dBz以上,回波顶高达到10km以上,风暴顶高超过回波顶高的70%,最大单体垂直液态含水量值在14 kg/m₂以上。     

Frequency domain electromagnetic and ground penetrating radar investigation of ephemeral streams: case study near the Southern High Plains,Texas

A frequency domain electromagnetic (FDEM) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) study was conducted on an ephemeral stream in north-central Texas to determine if FDEM and GPR measurements can be combined to determine the electrical characteristics of current and ancient stream channels. GPR data were collected at several frequencies to image sedimentary structures of different scale lengths, and to determine the formation porosity and water content of stream sediments. FDEM measurements were collected using Geonics EM31 and EM34 loop–loop instruments on a profile along the current stream channel and five profiles perpendicular to the channel. The results indicate that the greater spatial resolution of the EM31 mapped the current and possible ancient channels better than the EM34, however, the EM34 provided depth information on the formations underlying the channel sediments that the EM31 could not image. GPR measurements taken along a point bar deposit with 200, 100 and 25 MHz antennae indicated that the higher frequency antenna better resolved channel structures including laminar bedding, trough scours and cross-bedding, however, lower frequency antenna (25 MHz) imaged sedimentary structures within the underlying channel sediments. Common midpoint GPR measurements collected along the point bar deposit were used to estimate the sediment formation porosity (26%) and the water content, during a dry period, of the unsaturated (12%) and saturated (26 or 100% of the pore space) sediments. The combined results indicated that the FDEM data should be collected first because of the speed and ease of measurements. The FDEM data (especially the EM31) pointed to the locations of possible sedimentary structures, which can then be resolved by using different frequency GPR measurements.     

EnKF协方差膨胀算法对雷达资料同化的影响研究

基于集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)方法同化模拟雷达径向风和回波,引入具有时空自适应理论优势的贝叶斯膨胀算法,通过与常数膨胀算法的对比,分析了两种协方差膨胀算法对EnKF同化效果的影响。结果表明:在对流区域的北侧,由贝叶斯膨胀算法分析得到的回波在水平和垂直结构上均增强;在对流区域,由贝叶斯膨胀算法分析得到的各变量的集合离散度增大,均方根误差减小,水平和垂直速度增大,冷池强度减弱;模拟还发现贝叶斯膨胀算法提高了强对流系统的模拟效果,回波强度增强,阵风锋区内水平和垂直风速增大。这表明贝叶斯膨胀算法有效地改进了基于常数膨胀算法的EnKF同化雷达资料的效果。     

不同TEC分布模式对星载SAR立体定位精度的影响及校正

基于SAR成像模型和R-D定位模型,分析了电离层对星载SAR立体定位精度的影响,提出了相应的校正方法,并进行了仿真实验。实验表明对于特定波长的SAR信号,不同TEC分布模式组合对SAR立体像对定位精度的影响不同,校正效果也不同:当两幅影像对应的TEC分布均匀且大小相同时,电离层对SAR立体定位精度的影响小到可以忽略;当两幅影像由于拍摄季节不同导致TEC不同时,电离层影响很大,特别是距离向精度,其影响程度与两幅影像对应的TEC差值正相关,此时定向参数精化法校正效果很好;当电离层发生扰动时,电离层影响随着扰动程度的增大而增大,定向参数精化法有一定效果,但当电离层扰动很大时,校正效果明显减弱,还需要通过斜距直接校正法等其他方法予以校正。     

雷达资料同化在局地强对流预报中的应用

采用ARPS模式的资料分析系统ADAS同化多普勒雷达径向速度和反射率因子资料,分析两者对初始场的改进作用,并应用于WRF中尺度模式中对2012年8月21日江西省一次局地强对流过程进行了模拟试验。分析结果表明:（1）ADAS同化系统能够利用雷达径向速度和反射率因子资料有效增加初始场中的中小尺度风场信息和云、水物质含量,并通过湿绝热或非绝热初始化对温度场、湿度场和风场进行调整,使初始场在动力和热力上达到平衡。（2）同化径向速度后对改善模式初始场的动力场有重要贡献,而对大气水凝物和降水的预报影响较小;同化反射率因子的主要作用是调整初始场中的水凝物场和热力场,有效缩短了模式的“ spin-up”时间,明显改进了定量降水预报;同时同化雷达径向速度和反射率因子后,初始场中快速调整出了中小尺度风场水平辐合、垂直运动以及合理的温、湿分布,对3小时内雨带形状、降水落区及定量降水的预报与实况更接近。（3）模拟试验表明,同时同化径向速度和反射率因子能成功模拟出本次对流单体风暴的中β尺度三维空间分布结构及其演变过程,中低层切变线的辐合抬升强迫作用是对流单体风暴组织、发展和维持的主要动力机制之一,对流凝结潜热加热在对流单体风暴的发生发展中发挥了重要作用。因此,雷达资料同化对提高临近数值天气预报的准确率以及对强对流天气系统的模拟能力具有重要意义。     

雷达回波强度与雨滴谱参数的相关性研究

在雷达定量探测降水方面,目前大都采用雷达回波强度与降水强度的相关性来定量估算,但雷达回波强度与降水强度并非一一对应。本文利用从庐山和南京收集到的雷达观测资料和同步Parsivel观测到的雨滴谱数据,建立雷达回波强度与不同雨滴谱参数的函数关系,将由确定的函数关系式拟合后的雷达回波强度与雷达实测的回波强度作对比,以检验假定函数关系式的合理性,同时通过对比两地两类云降水拟合值的相对误差,给出了函数关系式中的最优y选项,为雷达定量估算降水量寻找新的途径。研究结果表明:庐山和南京两地两类云降水的雨滴谱参数对雷达回波强度的拟合普遍较好,其中对流云降水的拟合都明显好于层状云降水。两地层状云降水中各个雨滴谱参数对雷达回波强度的拟合曲线都大体相近,而对流云降水中,不同雨滴谱参数对雷达回波强度的拟合曲线差异较大。南京两类云降水拟合的相对误差要小于庐山两类云降水拟合的相对误差。除庐山对流云降水外,DV是两地两类云降水拟合公式中最优的y选项。而庐山对流云降水拟合式中,以N和DP的拟合最佳。     

Timber production assessment of a plantation forest: An integrated framework with field-based inventory,multi-source remote sensing data and forest management history

Timber production is the purpose for managing plantation forests, and its spatial and quantitative information is critical for advising management strategies. Previous studies have focused on growing stock volume (GSV), which represents the current potential of timber production, yet few studies have investigated historical process-harvested timber. This resulted in a gap in a synthetical ecosystem service assessment of timber production. In this paper, we established a Management Process–based Timber production (MPT) framework to integrate the current GSV and the harvested timber derived from historical logging regimes, trying to synthetically assess timber production for a historical period. In the MPT framework, age-class and current GSV determine the times of historical thinning and the corresponding harvested timber, by using a “space-for-time” substitution. The total timber production can be estimated by the historical harvested timber in each thinning and the current GSV. To test this MPT framework, an empirical study on a larch plantation (LP) with area of 43,946 ha was conducted in North China for a period from 1962 to 2010. Field-based inventory data was integrated with ALOS PALSAR (Advanced Land-Observing Satellite Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) and Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) data for estimating the age-class and current GSV of LP. The random forest model with PALSAR backscatter intensity channels and OLI bands as input predictive variables yielded an accuracy of 67.9% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.59 for age-class classification. The regression model using PALSAR data produced a root mean square error (RMSE) of 36.5 m³ ha⁻¹. The total timber production of LP was estimated to be 7.27 × 10⁶ m³, with 4.87 × 10⁶ m³ in current GSV and 2.40 × 10⁶ m³ in harvested timber through historical thinning. The historical process-harvested timber accounts to 33.0% of the total timber production, which component has been neglected in the assessments for current status of plantation forests. Synthetically considering the RMSE for predictive GSV and misclassification of age-class, the error in timber production were supposed to range from −55.2 to 56.3 m³ ha⁻¹. The MPT framework can be used to assess timber production of other tree species at a larger spatial scale, providing crucial information for a better understanding of forest ecosystem service.     

1988年闽北地区“5.21”暴雨的中、小尺度特征

本文利用“5.21”福建闽北特大暴雨过程中获得大量加密资料,较深入地分析了暴雨过程中、小尺度特征.给出不同尺度、不同物理特性的中小尺度系统(云团)相互作用,生消、发展、组合过程,以及武夷山脉的复杂地形在该过程中所起的重要作用.显示出在一定环境流场下,由中小尺度天气系统活动导致出现的天气变化密集的低纬山区形成持续性特大暴雨的重要特色.     

Calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins based on satellite radar altimetry observations of river water level

This paper proposes a new orientation to address the problem of hydrological model calibration in ungauged basin. Satellite radar altimetric observations of river water level at basin outlet are used to calibrate the model, as a surrogate of streamflow data. To shift the calibration objective, the hydrological model is coupled with a hydraulic model describing the relation between streamflow and water stage. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in the Upper Mississippi Basin using TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite data. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is employed for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We found that even without any streamflow information for regulating model behavior, the calibrated hydrological model can make fairly reasonable streamflow estimation. In order to illustrate the degree of additional uncertainty associated with shifting calibration objective and identifying its sources, the posterior distributions of hydrological parameters derived from calibration based on T/P data, streamflow data and T/P data with fixed hydraulic parameters are compared. The results show that the main source is the model parameter uncertainty. And the contribution of remote sensing data uncertainty is minor. Furthermore, the influence of removing high error satellite observations on streamflow estimation is also examined. Under the precondition of sufficient temporal coverage of calibration data, such data screening can eliminate some unrealistic parameter sets from the behavioral group. The study contributes to improve streamflow estimation in ungauged basin and evaluate the value of remote sensing in hydrological modeling. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radar observations and a physical model of Asteroid 1580 Betulia

We report Arecibo (2380-MHz, 13-cm) observations of Asteroid 1580 Betulia in May-June 2002. We combine these continuous-wave Doppler spectra and delay-Doppler images with optical lightcurves from the 1976 and 1989 apparitions in order to estimate Betulia's shape and spin vector. We confirm the spin vector solution of Kaasalainen et al. [Kaasalainen, M., and 21 colleagues, 2004. Icarus 167, 178-196], with sidereal period P=6.13836 h and ecliptic pole direction (λ,β)=(136°,+22°), and obtain a model that resembles the Kaasalainen et al. convex-definite shape reconstruction but is dominated by a prominent concavity in the southern hemisphere. We find that Betulia has a maximum breadth of 6.59±0.66 km and an effective diameter of 5.39±0.54 km. These dimensions are in accord with reanalyzed polarimetric and radar data from the 1970s. Our effective diameter is 15% larger than the best radiometric estimate of Harris et al. [Harris, A.W., Mueller, M., Delbó, M., Bus, S.J., 2005. Icarus 179, 95-108], but this difference is much smaller than the size differences between past models. Considering orbits of test particles around Betulia, we find that this asteroid's unusual shape results in six equilibrium points close to its equatorial plane rather than the usual four points; two of these six points represent stable synchronous orbits while four are unstable. Betulia's close planetary encounters can be predicted for over four thousand years into the future.