Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates for a global fund

Managing disaster risk is increasingly being considered a key line of response in climate adaptation. While funding support for adaptation has been pledged, rationales for support and cost implications are essentially unclear, which may explain why financing is currently only forthcoming at low levels. Various estimates for the costs of adaptation have been suggested, yet the rationale and robustness of the estimates have been difficult to verify. Focusing on weather-related extreme events, we conduct a global assessment of the public finance costs for financially managing extreme event risks. In doing so, we assess countries’ fiscal disaster vulnerability, which we operationalize as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of lost assets and infrastructure. Methods employed include minimum-distance techniques to estimate the tail behaviour of country disaster risks as well as the inclusion of non-linear loss and financing resources relationships. We find that many countries appear fiscal vulnerable and would require assistance from the donor community in order to bolster their fiscal resilience. Our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a global fund for absorbing different levels of country risks. We find the costs of funds covering different risk layers to be in the lower billions of dollars annually, compared to estimates of global climate adaptation which reach to more than USD 100 billion annually. Our estimates relate to today's climate, and while disaster losses have currently not been robustly linked to climate change, physical science has made a strong case in attributing changes in climate extremes to anthropogenic Climate Change. We suggest that estimates of current weather variability and related risks, although also associated with substantial uncertainty, can be interpreted as a baseline for discussion and any future projections of risks.     

Public engagement with marine climate change issues: (Re)framings,understandings and responses

Climate change impacts on marine environments have been somewhat neglected in climate change research, particularly with regard to their social dimensions and implications. This paper contributes to addressing this gap through presenting a UK focused mixed-method study of how publics frame, understand and respond to marine climate change-related issues. It draws on data from a large national survey of UK publics (N = 1,001), undertaken in January 2011 as part of a wider European survey, in conjunction with in-depth qualitative insights from a citizens’ panel with participants from the East Anglia region, UK. This reveals that discrete marine climate change impacts, as often framed in technical or institutional terms, were not the most immediate or significant issues for most respondents. Study participants tended to view these climate impacts ‘in context’, in situated ways, and as entangled with other issues relating to marine environments and their everyday lives. Whilst making connections with scientific knowledge on the subject, public understandings of marine climate impacts were mainly shaped by personal experience, the visibility and proximity of impacts, sense of personal risk and moral or equity-based arguments. In terms of responses, study participants prioritised climate change mitigation measures over adaptation, even in high-risk areas. We consider the implications of these insights for research and practices of public engagement on marine climate impacts specifically, and climate change more generally.     

Determinants of public goods investment in rural communities in mountainous areas of Sichuan Province,China

This study aims to investigate two important issues： what are the determinants of public goods investment and what is the government＇s investment behavior in mountainous areas. The impacts of natural conditions, target, and demand elements on public goods investment are analyzed with statistical method, and the determinants of public goods investment in the areas are obtained by using population-weighted and stepwise regression models with Eviews6.0 software with survey data in 2008 and calculated data based on GIS of 20 typical villages in mountainous regions in Sichuan, China. The results showed： （1） natural conditions are the important determinants of public investment. Mountainous villages with steep slope have relatively high levels of investment; （2） concentration of population and the educational levels of the village leaders also have important impacts on public goods investment; （3） the government is more concerned with public investment resources particularly in areas characterized by fragile ecological environment and poor agricultural output. These results suggest that the current investment strategy helps to reduce disparities in regional development.     

User fees and the permeability of public space at municipal pools and bathhouses in New York City, 1870 – present

This paper examines fees for access to New York City’s public swimming and bathing spaces from 1870 to the present. We argue that, beyond generating revenue and rationing space, charges for admission to public bathing spaces have served to condition how permeable those spaces were to various groups of potential users. Municipal actors involved in administering baths and pools have used fees to maintain and order these spaces; to distinguish between deserving and undeserving users; and to include and exclude participants in an ostensibly universal public. Over time, fees have been naturalized, erasing these motivations and giving cause to their outcomes. We problematize the fee in order to address both theoretical questions about the nature of public space and practical ones about how municipal administrators govern amidst competing pressures to serve, develop and regulate urban residents and their communities.     

Towards personalised public warnings: harnessing technological advancements to promote better individual decision-making in the face of disasters

ABSTRACT

Official warnings are essential for informing the public of impending hazards and promoting their responses before a disaster occurs. However, research has identified that traditional public warnings, such as generic text messages based on large geographic regions, often fail to promote appropriate responses by at-risk residents. Recently, there has been an increased focus on using map-based approaches for communicating public warnings. However, a systematic framework to guide the design of effective mapping instruments for this purpose is lacking. The researchers sought to fill this gap by merging the scholarly understanding of factors influencing warning effectiveness with the contemporary spatial capacities of the emergency management sector. The current paper presents the conceptual framework resulting from this merger, which can be used to direct the design and implementation of map-based warnings that offer personalised risk visualisation and provide personalised decision support to motivate appropriate responses. An example is then provided to illustrate how this framework can be applied for the development of personalised bushfire warnings in an Australian context. Underpinned by webGIS technologies, the proposed framework shows a potentially ground-breaking approach to improve public warning communication by fostering more efficient and effective risk personalisation and response related decision-making by individuals.     

地震预警信息发布策略的探讨

地震预警是一种有效的减灾方式。面向公众的地震预警信息发布是一项复杂的系统工程,涉及发布主体、发布对象、发布内容和发布方式等多方面内容。本文通过分析国内外地震预警系统应用和信息发布策略,探讨提出了我国地震预警信息的发布主体的有效载体,与发布对象所对应的具体发布方式和发布内容等环节的操作方式,以期为政策制定提供一定的参考依据。     

面向服务的山西省地理信息公共服务平台建设

结合山西省地理信息公共平台建设,着重说明以公共地理框架数据库建设为核心的数据体系建设和目录服务注册为核心的地理信息公共在线服务体系的建设;探索地理空间数据共享与发布的作业流程和工作基准,为地理信息的共享打下数据基础,解决了多源空间数据的注册、发现与绑定问题,构建了开放式服务体系。     

地震重点监视防御区政府职能履行现状研究

地震灾害是中国社会稳定和经济发展的重大风险源,而地震风险控制是社会多元主体参与的复合型风险治理模式.本课题以风险理论为基础,在调查问卷、访谈、座谈、考察调研和现行文献研究的基础上,通过对地震重点监视防御区政府职能履行现状的研究,分析影响地震重点监视防御区制度实施的各种因素,进而提出加强地震重点监视防御区中央和地方政府社会管理和公共服务职能的政策性措施与建议,旨在完善地震重点监视防御区地震风险管理制度,形成政府社会共同应对地震社会风险,降低社会易损性,从而达到控制地震社会风险的目的.     

Fragmentation of rangelands: Implications for humans, animals, and landscapes

Fragmentation of the ecosystems of the earth into spatially isolated units has emerged as a primary component of global change. Often, fragmentation results from actions that are intended to enhance human livelihoods and well-being; however, there are often costs to ecosystems and human economies that are not considered. We describe the three general categories of processes causing fragmentation of rangelands worldwide: dissection, decoupling, and compression. We show that access to heterogeneity of landscapes is an important attribute of grazing ecosystems worldwide, and that fragmentation of these systems, even when it proceeds in the absence of habitat loss, can limit options of people and animals, options that are particularly important in temporally heterogeneous environments. We discuss the consequences of fragmentation for people, livestock, wildlife, and landscapes and describe potential adaptations that can mitigate its harmful outcomes. We close by reviewing policy options that promote re-aggregation of landscapes and adaptation to fragmentation.     

青岛竹岔岛存在古火山口吗?

<正>青岛竹岔岛位于黄海之中,距离最近的陆地约3km(图1a),主要由4个岛屿组成,总面积约0.38 km~2。竹岔岛上以发育有一"古火山口"而远近闻名(图1b),每年都吸引不少游客前来参观,成为了青岛市重要的科普教育基地。