Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks

Both probabilistic and deterministic methods have a role in seismic hazard and risk analyses performed for decision-making purposes. These two methods can complement one another to provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. One method will have priority over the other, depending on how quantitative are the decisions to be made, depending on the seismic environment, and depending on the scope of the project (single site or a region). In many applications a recursive analysis, where deterministic interpretations are triggered by probabilistic results and vice versa, will give the greatest insight and allow the most informed decisions to be made.     

核电厂设计地震动评定中的构造法和概率法结果比较

剖析和比较了地震危险性分析方法(综合概率法)和地震构造法的结果,认为,不能简单将构造法的结果作为概率法的上限,也不能确定在10-4的概率水平上,概率法结果就比构造法结果大,因此评定核电厂极限安全地震应同时使用构造法、概率法和其它方法,并取各种结果的最大值     

华北地区地震造成人员死亡的概率预测研究初探

在1800年至1989年间,华北地区(34.0°—42.0°N;117.5°—125.0°E)由于地震造成人员死亡程度(E)(E—logD,D为死亡人数)及其频度(N)满足指数关系N=37.71e~(-0.72E)。应用Gumbel极值理论估计该区在1988—1998年和1999—2009年间,地震造成人员死亡人数等于和大于1000人的概率分别是0.37和0.50。     

建立生命的地震易损性概率矩阵初探

1966年3月8日河北省邢台地震(M_S=6.8)震害调查资料的统计分析结果表明,地震造成人员伤亡的损失程度遵从正态的概率分布,据此初步建立起土坯墙房的生命地震易损性概率矩阵P(D_0|I)。该矩阵将可应用在地震灾害生命损失的概率预测研究中。     

研究岩石破裂等弱化行为的力－位移组合控制方法

本文介绍了一种用力和位移的线性组合控制岩石试验的新方法。该方法已在一台自制的伺服实验系统上和一台ＭＴＳ实验系统上得到了实现。用这种方法能够简便地求出通常难以求出的具有Ⅱ类特性岩石的全应力─应变曲线，而且能够变化出如广义应力松驰等其它实验类型，从而能够对时间依赖性进行深入的研究。由于其易于采用的特点，它在研究岩石破裂乃至摩擦等弱化过程方面有着广泛的应用前景。     

Seismic hazard of Bulgaria

A simplified seismotectonic model is proposed for Bulgaria by introducing generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. A tectonic scheme, which considers the main faults only, is then derived from this. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done using different approaches: the Gumbel, the Cornell, and the fault rupture model methods. A series of relations among seismological parameters are derived from the available data. The results obtained by the different approaches are similar: the most dangerous area is the Struma zone, located in southwestern Bulgaria.     

Shear stress on the base of a lithospheric plate

This paper is a review of the theoretical and observational evidence bearing on the magnitude of the shear stress which acts on the base of a lithospheric plate. Estimates based on the viscosity of the upper mantle do not yield useful limits. Arguments based on the thermal stability of the upper mantle indicate that the basal shear stress is no larger than a few bars. An indirect measurement of the rheology and shear stress can be made by studying the diffusion of stress and displacement following a large decoupling earthquake. When applied to the 1965 Rat Island Earthquake, this method yields a basal shear stress of about 2 bars. These results indicate that for small plates the forces produced by basal shear stress are probably small in comparison with forces acting on plate boundaries. To a first approximation, the smaller plates act as if they were decoupled from the mantle below. These stress estimates lead to a model in which the motion of the smaller lithospheric plates is governed almost entirely by the forces acting on their edges. Forces due to basal shear stress may be comparable to forces acting on the edges of large lithospheric plates. Thus, complete decoupling may not be a good approximation for such plates.     

Evaluation of seismic site factors in the Mississippi Embayment. II. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with nonlinear site effects

An integrated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis procedure that incorporates nonlinear site effects, PSHA-NL, is developed and used to characterize the influence of thick deposits of the upper Mississippi Embayment (ME) on seismic site coefficients. PSHA-NL follows the methodology of the 2002 USGS hazard maps and generates a compatible set of ground motion records. The motions are propagated using nonlinear and equivalent linear site response analyses and ME properties developed in a companion paper and used to derive surface uniform hazard response spectra. A set of generic site coefficients are derived and summarized in a format similar to NEHRP site coefficients, with an added dimension of ME deposits thickness to the Paleozoic rock, a physically meaningful impedance boundary. These coefficients compare well with NEHRP site coefficients for 30 m profiles. For thicker soil profiles, developed site coefficients are lower at short periods and higher at long periods than NEHRP site coefficients.