某地红砂岩多轴受力状态蠕变松弛特性试验研究

与岩石单轴蠕变松弛试验研究相比,多轴的研究结果很少,这一现状的结果是岩石的三维蠕变松弛模型基本是其单轴模型的简单推广,缺乏试验资料的佐证。为了积累宝贵数据,推动岩石多轴蠕变松施模型的发展,利用广东某地的红砂岩开展了以下试验研究：(1) 不同围压下岩石的蠕变松弛特性;(2) 二向受力状态下岩石的蠕变松弛特性;(3) 多轴受力时,饱水和风干状态下岩石蠕变松弛特性的对比。总结、分析试验结果,获取了该种红砂岩多轴蠕变松弛特性的一些基本规律或现象,如：轴压相同时,侧压越高,蠕变量越小;当围压相同、时间相同时,应力 越高,则 的松弛量也越大。这些结果对于岩石力学的基础研究及现场施工设计均具有较大意义。     

Discontinuity controlled probabilistic slope failure risk maps of the Altindag (settlement) region in Turkey

The evaluation of potential rock slope problems using stereographic projection techniques known as kinematic analysis is one of the most important parts of a slope stability investigation to be carried out in jointed rock media. In conventional stereoprojection techniques for the assessment of possible rock slope failures, the peak orientations of joints together with the slope geometry and the friction angle of the weakness planes are used. Other possible joint orientations which may be encountered in the rock media are ignored, although they belong to the group of joint peak orientations. In this study, nearly vertical jointed andesites cropped out at the Altindag settlement region in Ankara were studied in order to evaluate the relevance of this ignored discontinuity orientation data on slope stability. As a result, probabilistic risk maps for planar, toppling and wedge failures were produced using the kinematic rules and digital elevation model of the study area. The comparison of the distribution of the actual failures in the area and the probabilistic risk maps prepared for the study area revealed that all of the identified failures are found to be located in the higher risk zones on the probabilistic risk maps.     

Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios

Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.     

Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis: an integrated approach for siting problems

A methodology is proposed to determine design earthquakes for site-specific studies such as the siting of critical structures (power plants, waste disposals, large dams, etc.), strategic structures (fire stations, military commands, hospitals, etc.), or for seismic microzoning studies, matching the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. This goal is achieved by calculating the source contribution to hazard and the magnitude–distance deaggregation, showing that, varying the selected frequency and the level of hazard, the reference earthquakes are changed as a result. A procedure is then adopted to minimize the residuals between the uniform hazard spectrum (target motion) and the design earthquake spectrum, to provide a specific earthquake scenario encompassing all the frequencies of the target motion. Finally, some considerations on the use and the influence exerted by ground motion uncertainty (σ) on hazard deaggregation are outlined.     

基于异步迭代算法的冲击地压预测

采用三层BP神经网络方法对冲击地压建立了数学模型。网络的训练算法采用具有松弛因子的动态异步迭代法,该算法在克服网络的麻痹现象及局部极小问题上都优于目前常用的训练方法,因而,采用此算法对网络进行了训练及震级的预报。基于新汶矿务局华丰煤矿1999～2000年的冲击地压现场监测数据,把冲击地压的能量、产生波的幅值、频次做为输入数据,相应期间的最大震级为输出数据,组成神经网络的训练样本及测试样本,对原始数据进行了数学预处理,网络结构采用了输入层3个结点,中间层7个结点,输出层1个结点的前向神经网络;网络最终的训练误差为0.06,预测结果的相对误差率平均为 9.2 %,预测效果比较理想。     

西南某水电站谷底深厚覆盖层与卸荷松弛带特征及其成因机制分析

钻孔揭示,该水电站河谷谷底发育着深厚覆盖层及卸荷松弛带。深厚覆盖层纵向上可以分为3层:下部和上部为正常的河流相,中部为多成因堆积物加积层;谷底浅表部岩体结构松弛,完整性差,裂隙张开、泥质充填,裂面严重风化锈染。研究表明,谷底松弛是由于河流切至谷底时造成应力集中,导致岩体剪切破坏;并经过漫长的卸荷回弹及风化作用在谷底形成一定厚度的松弛带。     

基于TIGGE多模式集合的24小时气温BMA 概率预报

利用TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)单中心集合预报系统(ECMWF、United Kingdom Meteorological Office、China Meteorological Administration和NCEP)以及由此所构成的多中心模式超级集合预报系统24小时地面日均气温预报,结合淮河流域地面观测率定贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)参数,从而建立地面日均气温BMA概率预报模型.由此针对淮河流域进行地面日均气温BMA概率预报及其检验与评估,结果表明BMA模型比原始集合预报效果好;单中心的BMA概率预报都有较好的预报效果,其中ECMWF最好.多中心模式超级集合比单中心BMA概率预报效果更好,采用可替换原则比普通的多中心模式超级集合BMA模型计算量小,且在上述BMA集合预报系统中效果最好.它与原始集合预报相比其平均绝对误差减少近7%,其连续等级概率评分提高近10%.基于采用可替换原则的多中心模式超级集合BMA概率预报,针对研究区域提出了极端高温预警方案,这对防范高温天气有着重要意义.     

饱和砂岩的黏弹行为的实验研究

通过Metravib热机械分析仪,用正弦波进行加载,实验时固定静载为100 N,正弦波动载荷恒为60 N,将总载荷控制在屈服点以下;在温度为-50～125℃,升温速率为1℃/min,频率为5～1000 Hz的条件下,对泵油饱和长石砂岩、彭山砂岩样品进行单轴循环加载实验,求取泵油饱和长石砂岩和彭山砂岩的衰减、耗散角、模量...     

Using NWP to Assess the Influence of the Arctic Atmosphere on Midlatitude Weather and Climate

The influence of the Arctic atmosphere on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric weather and climate is explored by comparing the skill of two sets of 14-day weather forecast experiments using the ECMWF model with and without relaxation of the Arctic atmosphere towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data during the integration. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences midlatitude weather: a pronounced one over Asia and Eastern Europe, and a secondary one over North America. In general, linkages are found to be strongest(weakest) during boreal winter(summer) when the amplitude of stationary planetary waves over the Northern Hemisphere is strongest(weakest). No discernible Arctic impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific region, which is consistent with predominantly southwesterly flow. An analysis of the flow-dependence of the linkages shows that anomalous northerly flow conditions increase the Arctic influence on midlatitude weather over the continents. Specifically, an anomalous northerly flow from the Kara Sea towards West Asia leads to cold surface temperature anomalies not only over West Asia but also over Eastern and Central Europe. Finally, the results of this study are discussed in the light of potential midlatitude benefits of improved Arctic prediction capabilities.     

Multi-scale Incremental Analysis Update Scheme and Its Application to Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) Prediction

In the traditional incremental analysis update(IAU) process, all analysis increments are treated as constant forcing in a model’s prognostic equations over a certain time window. This approach effectively reduces high-frequency oscillations introduced by data assimilation. However, as different scales of increments have unique evolutionary speeds and life histories in a numerical model, the traditional IAU scheme cannot fully meet the requirements of short-term forecasting for the damping of hig...