基于2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后形变探测青藏高原南缘的岩石圈流变结构

基于有限元方法,采用2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后5 a的GPS观测资料约束青藏高原南缘的岩石圈流变结构,利用通过主前缘逆冲断裂带(MFT)间的距离来约束边界位置的垂直边界结构和印度弹性俯冲板片结构探测印度板块和青藏高原板块的边界结构。结果表明,2种结构均能产生与观测数据一致的南-西南水平运动模式,并能较好地解释远场地面位移,但垂直边界结构模型得到的垂直形变偏大,而俯冲板片结构模型能很好地解释中尼边境及以北地区的隆升现象。青藏高原下地壳稳态和瞬态粘滞系数的最优结果分别为1×1018 Pa·s和1×1017 Pa·s。     

基于GNSS观测研究2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后地壳形变特征及其机制

收集及处理尼泊尔境内的GPS连续观测站和中国藏南地区的GPS基准站数据,获得2015年尼泊尔MW7.8地震震后3 a的GPS水平形变场。结果显示,尼泊尔地震的震后形变主要分布于尼泊尔北部及中尼边境区域,且东西方向形变较小,南北方向形变较大,整体继续向南运动,最大震后位移约为10.93 cm。采用孔隙弹性回弹模型计算的理论地表位移远小于GPS观测值,无法解释GPS观测到的震后形变。采用震后余滑模型反演的结果表明,震后余滑主要集中在断层的下倾延伸部分,且空间分布较广,余滑释放的地震矩为1.09×1020 Nm。采用PSGRN/PSCMP程序计算粘弹性引起的理论地表形变结果显示,粘弹性松弛模型不能解释近场GPS观测值,但在远场区域的运动方向与GPS观测值一致。采用粘弹性松弛和震后余滑组合机制模型进行反演,余滑释放的地震矩降为1.08×1020 Nm,且空间分布更加集中。研究结果表明,组合机制模型在保证了模型拟合精度的基础上,反演结果与应力驱动模型反演结果更接近。     

Characterization of humic substances by advanced solid state NMR spectroscopy: Demonstration of a systematic approach

Characterization of humic substances is challenging due to their structural complexity and heterogeneity. Solid state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is regarded as one of the best tools for elucidating structures of humic substances. The primary solid state NMR technique that has been used so far is the routine ¹³C cross polarization-magic angle spinning (CP-MAS) technique. Although this technique has markedly advanced our understanding of humic substances, the full potential of NMR for characterizing humic substances has yet to be realized. Recent technical developments and applications of advanced solid state NMR have revealed the promise to provide deeper insights into structures of humic substances. In this paper, we summarized and demonstrated the systematic solid state NMR protocol for characterization of humic substances using a humic acid as an example. This protocol included (1) identification of specific functional groups using spectral editing techniques, occasionally assisted by ¹H¹³C two-dimensional heteronuclear correlation (2D HETCOR) NMR, (2) quantification of specific functional groups based on direct polarization-magic angle spinning (DP-MAS) and DP-MAS with recoupled dipolar dephasing, combined with spectral editing techniques, (3) determination of connectivities and proximities of specific functional groups by ¹H¹³C 2D HETCOR or 2D HETCOR combined with spectral editing techniques, and (4) examination of domains and heterogeneities by ¹H¹³C 2D HETCOR with ¹H spin diffusion. We used a soil humic acid as an example to demonstrate how this protocol was applied to the characterization of humic substances step by step. Afterwards, based on typical ¹³C NMR spectra of humic substances we described how we could combine different NMR techniques to identify specific functional groups band by band from downfield to upfield. Finally, we briefly mentioned the potential new NMR techniques that could be developed to enrich the current systematic protocol. This systematic protocol is not only applicable to humic substances but also to other natural organic matter samples.     

基于因子分析的广东省短时强降水预报模型及其业务试验

利用每天4次0.125°×0.125°的ECMWF-Interim再分析资料和广东省2009—2018年地面气象站逐时雨量观测的短时强降水数据集,针对广东不同季节、不同地域的短时强降水,以提高命中率同时控制虚警率为目的,提出基于显著性和敏感性评价的物理量优选和因子分析法,用于构建分期、分区的广东短时强降水概率预报模型....     

中国西部深切河谷谷底卸荷松弛带成因机理研究

中国西部深切河谷中大量钻孔等资料分析表明,西部深切河谷谷底浅表层普遍存在卸荷松弛现象。谷底卸荷松弛带一般厚10~20m,具有弱风化、裂隙发育、岩体强度较低、完整性差、透水性较高等特征。研究结果揭示谷底形成后岩体经历了谷底应力集中→谷底岩体变形破坏→表层岩体卸荷松弛→次生裂隙发育→长期水岩相互作用→形成现今谷底弱风化、弱卸荷带。室内物理模拟研究直观地再现了谷底岩体应力集中、变形破坏,形成卸荷松弛现象。     

Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach

Medium-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to several days ahead are required to issue early flood warnings and to allow optimum operation of hydraulic structures or reservoirs. This paper describes an approach which can be seen as an adaptation of deterministic meteorological model outputs. It involves searching for a sample of past situations similar to the current one from a long meteorological archive. The analogy is considered in terms of general circulation patterns over a window covering western Europe. For this restricted sample of days similar to the day at hand, the corresponding sample of observed daily precipitation is extracted for each catchment. The rainfall to be observed during the current day is assumed to follow the same distribution, known from this empirical sample. This provides a probabilistic forecast expressed, for example, by a central quantile and a confidence range. This paper describes the many choices underlying the optimisation of this approach: choice of predictor variables to characterise a meteorological situation, choice of similarity criterion between two situations, criterion for performance evaluation between two versions of the algorithm, etc. This method was calibrated over about 50 catchments located in France, Italy and Spain, using a meteorological and hydrological archive running from 1953 to 1996. Comparisons carried out over a validation sample (1995–1996) with three poor-man methods prove the interest of this approach, in a perfect prognosis context. In real-time operation, the use of forecast instead of observed predictor variables, essentially geopotential fields, produces only a minor decrease in performance. The use of the single-valued central quantile supplemented by the confidence interval provided a QPF that has proved effective and informative on the potential for extreme values.     

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟.本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险.通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发...