Recent crustal deformation and the earthquake cycle along the Ecuador-Colombia subduction zone

Recent results from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show deformation along the coast of Ecuador and Colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979. A 3D elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by GPS campaigns in 1991, 1994, 1996, and 1998. Deformation in Ecuador can be explained best by 50% apparent locking on the subduction interface. Although there have not been any historic large earthquakes (M_w>7) south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone, 50% apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there. In Colombia, only 30% apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone (M_w 8.2), and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two GPS sites north of there. There is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in Colombia. However, simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake. These results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area, but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate.     

基于概率核地震属性融合的砂体预测方法研究

随着油气田开发程度越来越高,勘探难度越来越大,如东部的老油田已经进入开发的后期,如何识别薄层砂体是非常重要的工作之一,解决这些难题这势必需要更先进的技术.地震属性能够很好的反映砂体横向展布特征,但是单一属性无法定量预测砂体厚度,而多属性之间又存在多解性,因此有必要提炼地震属性之间的共同点,将地震属性进行信息融合,形成新的融合属性.针对这一问题,本文提出首先利用高频谐波提高地震数据的分辨率,在此基础上着重研究基于概率核的地震属性融合方法,融合了几种常见的地震属性,并结合波阻抗反演方法,预测了N873区块沙三6-3小层砂体厚度.结果显示该方法能够很好的反映砂体横向展布特征,避免了地震属性多解性问题,为提高砂体预测的精度,提供了新的思路和方法.     

Characterization of displacement demand for elastic and inelastic SDOF systems

The results of a research concerning the characterization of elastic and inelastic displacement spectral demand as a function of magnitude, source-to-site distance, and soil type are presented. The displacement spectra were computed for single degree of freedom systems subjected to a large set of strong ground motion records.In the elastic case, design displacement spectra, modeled in a simplified way with a bilinear shape in the period range 0–4 s, are then proposed for the estimation of the displacement demand to structures located on different local soil condition, at different distance from the causative fault, and for different levels of magnitude. In order to evaluate the reliability of the proposed design displacement spectra, probabilistic displacement spectra corresponding to different levels of probability of non-exceedance were also carried out.The inelastic displacement demand to elasto-plastic systems was analyzed through the ratio between inelastic and elastic spectral displacements. Simplified relationships of the inelastic displacement ratio are then proposed as a function of displacement ductility, soil condition and period of vibration. Finally, as a comparison, the inelastic displacement ratios were also estimated considering other constitutive models.     

基于有效应力法的静压桩时变承载力研究

基于天然饱和黏土地基中静压沉桩扩孔问题的弹塑性解,以沉桩结束后桩周土体的应力状态为初始条件,推导了桩周孔压消散的解析解。在此基础上,考虑桩周土体再固结过程中的土体松弛效应,提出了采用有效应力计算天然饱和黏土中静压桩时变承载力的理论方法。通过已有离心模型试验和现场试验结果对该方法进行了验证,研究了沉桩结束后静压桩承载力随固结时间的变化规律。结果表明,提出的理论方法合理考虑了土体的原位力学特性、沉桩效应及沉桩结束后土体有效应力的变化,因而可以较好地预测静压桩的时变承载力。该研究成果为合理确定黏土中静压桩承载力提供了理论依据,具有一定的理论和工程意义。     

最小一乘方松弛计算法

以加权最小二乘法为基础的最小一乘方松弛算法,能有效削弱异常数据的影响,获得更稳健的回归方程.该算法适用于多元线性回归模型的参数估计,并以实例验证了该算法的稳健性.     

Probabilistic Model for Concentration Fluctuations in Compact-Source Plumes in an Urban Environment

A comprehensive model for the prediction of concentration fluctuations in plumes dispersing in the complex and highly disturbed wind flows in an urban environment is formulated. The mean flow and turbulence fields in the urban area are obtained using a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow model, while the standard k-ϵ turbulence model (k is the turbulence kinetic energy and ϵ is the viscous dissipation rate) is used to close the model. The RANS model provides a specification of the velocity statistics of the highly disturbed wind flow in the urban area, required for the solution of the transport equations for the mean concentration and concentration variance (both of which are formulated in the Eulerian framework). A physically-based formulation for the scalar dissipation time scale t _d , required for the closure of the transport equation for , is presented. This formulation relates t _d to an inner time scale corresponding to “internal” concentration fluctuation associated with relative dispersion, rather than an outer time scale associated with the entire portion of the fluctuation spectrum. The two lowest-order moments of concentration ( and ) are used to determine the parameters of a pre-chosen functional form for the concentration probability density function (clipped-gamma distribution). Results of detailed comparisons between a water-channel experiment of flow and dispersion in an idealized obstacle array and the model predictions for mean flow, turbulence kinetic energy, mean concentration, concentration variance, and concentration probability density function are presented.     

Iterative analysis of pore‐dynamic models discretized by finite elements

This work proposes an iterative procedure to analyze dynamic linear/nonlinear fully saturated porous media considering time‐domain finite element discretization. In this iterative approach, each phase of the coupled problem is treated separately, uncoupling the governing equations of the model. Thus, simpler, smaller, and better conditioned systems of equations are obtained, rendering more attractive techniques. A relaxation parameter is introduced in order to improve the efficiency and robustness of the iterative solution, and an expression to compute optimal values for the relaxation parameter is discussed. At the end of the paper, numerical examples are presented, illustrating the effectiveness and potentialities of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (pseudo-PSF, pPSF), and ensemble or probabilistic streamflow forecast (denoted as real-PSF, rPSF). DSF represents forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast errors, pPSF a conditional distribution of forecast uncertainty for a given DSF, and rPSF a probabilistic uncertainty distribution. Compared to previous studies that treat the forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the dynamic evolution of uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. Through a hypothetical example of a single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases but the magnitude depends on the forecast products used. In general, the utility of the reservoir operation with rPSF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast. Meanwhile, the utilities of DSF and pPSF are similar to each other but not as high as rPSF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, pPSF, and rPSF.     

Stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated non-normal variables

This paper proposes a stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal random variables, in which the Nataf transformation is adopted to effectively transform the correlated non-normal variables into independent standard normal variables. Transformations of random variables that are often used in reliability analyses in terms of standard normal variables are summarized. The closed-form expressions for fourth to sixth order Hermite polynomial chaos expansions involving any number of random variables are formulated. The proposed method will substantially extend the application of stochastic response surface method for reliability problems. An example of reliability analysis of rock slope stability with plane failure is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed stochastic response surface method. The results indicate that the proposed stochastic response surface method can evaluate the reliability of rock slope stability involving correlated non-normal variables accurately and efficiently. Its accuracy is shown to be higher than that for the first-order reliability method, and it is much more efficient than direct Monte-Carlo simulation. The results also show that the number of collocation points selected should ensure that the Hermite polynomial matrix has a full rank so that different order SRSMs can produce a robust estimation of probability of failure for a specified performance function. Generally, the accuracy of SRSM increases as the order of SRSM increases.     

排水和不排水条件下高温冻土松弛特性研究

为了探明排水条件对高温冻土应力松弛特性的影响,开展了室内松弛试验,研究了排水和不排水情况下高温冻土的应力松弛过程．结果表明：围压对高温冻土的松弛过程影响明显;不排水情况下,围压增大,松弛稳定历时延长,瞬时松弛量增大;松弛过程初期松弛速率受围压影响较大,而后逐渐减弱;排水情况下,松弛过程发展初期的松弛速率略高于不排水情况...