THE COULOMB STRESS CHANGES AND SEISMICITY ON SOME MAJOR FAULTS IN NORTH CHINA

In recent years, the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology. Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it. It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed. More importantly, the Chinese capital city, Beijing, lies in the hinterland of North China. At the same time, there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China. The capital Beijing is China's political, economic, cultural, and transportation center. It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country, and is also a region where population, wealth, and information are highly concentrated. With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District, the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable. Due to its special geographical location, frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention. From the physical principle, the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress, but the stress does not completely disappear. Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas, resulting in stress concentration in some areas, which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area. This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes. According to this hypothesis, the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes; conversely, the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault, which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake. In order to study the future seismic activity of North China, this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region. To this end, we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with M_S ≥ 6.0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820, using elastic dislocation theory and hierarchical lithosphere model, respectively, in order to examine whether the cumulative Coulomb stress change can explain the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquakes. Also we project the Coulomb stress change onto the specific active faults in North China and assign the present and future Coulomb stress change state to the faults to provide a dynamics reference for analyzing whether the areas will be hit by strong earthquakes in the future. The simulated results show that the effect caused by the effective friction coefficient changes is not significant on the spatial distribution of Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium of earthquakes in the North China region. Although the variation of the effective friction coefficient has an impact on the Coulomb stresses for some sections of faults, the general pattern of the spatial distribution of the Coulomb stress changes keeps unchanged. Consequently, 19 of the 24 earthquakes since the 1888 Bohai Bay earthquake have fallen in the positive region of Coulomb stress changes, with a triggering rate of 79%. In particular, considering the seismogeological data and the Coulomb stress calculation results, we assume that Luanxian-Yueting Fault, Panzhuangxi Fault, Dongming-Chengwu Fault, Yuncheng Fault, Longyao Fault of Ninghe-Xinxiang seismic belt, the Yingkou-Weifang Fault of Tanlu seismic belt, the Xiadian Fault, and the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault in the Capital area have higher seismic risk and deserve in-depth study.     

2010年玉树地震库仑应力变化对2016年杂多地震的影响及区域危险性评估

在以往研究的基础上,利用弹性位错理论和岩石圈分层粘弹性模型,进一步分析2010年玉树地震同震及震后应力变化对2016年杂多地震的影响,讨论玉树地震和杂多地震对研究区主要活动断裂的应力影响及未来地震危险性。结果表明,玉树地震同震库仑应力使杂多地震震中位置应力升高1.476 kPa。2010年玉树地震至2016年杂多地震的6 a内,震后粘弹性松弛作用使研究区域库仑应力增强区域应力持续集中,并使应力影区进一步释放应力,杂多地震位于玉树地震导致的库仑应力增强区域。2016年杂多地震发生时,其震中位置应力升高3.902 kPa。采用多组不同模型参数的研究结果均显示,玉树地震对杂多地震孕育起促进作用。2016年杂多地震同震破裂仅影响震中周边小范围区域的应力状态,在杂多断裂带西北端出现应力高值区域。2010年玉树地震同震及震后作用使甘孜-玉树断裂的叶诺卡-结隆段、巴塘乡-洛须段、当江段、巴塘乡断裂中段及五道梁-曲麻莱断裂称多段应力明显升高。甘孜-玉树断裂西北段的叶诺卡-结隆段、巴塘乡-相古段地震空区的地震危险性较高。     

利用粘滞模型研究华北地区中强地震的趋势特征

通过对华北地震区块体以及板块运动的分析研究,建立粘滞模型对华北块体深部地壳及上地幔的力学特征进行研究,在给定的边界条件下解出华北地震区的应力松弛周期为56年。通过对华北地震区1900年以来MS≥6.0级地震的周期和蠕变曲线的分析,得出了和粘滞模型一致的结果。据此判断华北地震区在2022年之前处于平静期,在此期间将有多次5级左右地震发生的可能,印尼巨震的发生使边界条件发生显著变化,可能导致平静期缩短。     

辽宁省春季透雨集合预报误差分析

利用2016—2018年4月1日至6月30日三个全球数值预报业务中心(CMA、ECMWF和NCEP)的24 h降水集合预报资料和辽宁省降水观测资料,采用TS评分、预报偏差B、Talagrand分布以及BS评分等方法对辽宁省春季透雨(4—6月)CMA、ECMWF和NCEP三套全球集合预报结果进行对比分析.结果表明:三个集...     

球模仪测试冻土松弛模量的非线性Kelvin解答及其试验研究

冻土的松弛模量是进行蠕变力学分析的关键参数。但在理论方面, 尚未基于球模仪试验建立较完善的松弛模量表征公式。基于半空间黏弹性理论和分数阶微积分理论, 获得了松弛模量公式的非线性Kelvin模型解答并进行了材料参数影响分析。在给出恒载条件下, 可以用单轴蠕变试验的分析结果评估基于球形压痕试验的冻土松弛模量来预测准确性。随后分别以冻结细砂的球模仪试验曲线、 冻结砂和冻结砂质黏土的单轴蠕变曲线为例, 预测了各条试验曲线和冻土的松弛模量, 并通过其他试验实测数据进行了检验。结果表明： 该松弛模量表征公式的材料参数最少, 随各材料参数变化具有较佳单调性; 基于球形模板试验, 非线性Kelvin解答能对冻结细砂的松弛模量和位移曲线做出合理可靠的预测。非线性Kelvin模型能很好地吻合单轴蠕变试验曲线, 基于单轴蠕变试验的冻结砂松弛模量随时间变化规律和数值范围与球模仪试验分析结果较一致, 冻结砂质黏土的松弛模量随应力和温度的变化规律再现了已有研究结论。     

印缅板块强震活动趋势的动力学机制研究

通过对印缅板块地区7级以上地震活动趋势的研究,得出印缅板块地区强震活动存在大约 60年的活动周期。利用粘滞模型计算了印缅板块地区壳幔的理论应力释放周期为56年,与该地区的强震活动周期基本吻合。通过松弛数判断壳幔介质的变形属性,给出印缅板块强震活动趋势的动力学解释。     

一种综合利用像方和物方信息的多影像匹配方法

A novel method for multi-image matching by synthesizing image and object-space information is proposed. Firstly, four levels of image pyramids are generated according to the rule that the next pyramid level is generated from the previous level using the average gray values of the 3 by 3 pixels, and the first level of pyramid image is generated from the original image. The initial horizontal parallaxes between the reference image and each searching image are calculated at the highest level of the image pyramid. Secondly, corresponding image points are searched in each stereo image pair from the third level of image pyramid, and the matching results in all stereo pairs are integrated in the object space, by which the mismatched image points can be eliminated and more accurate spatial information can be obtained for the subsequent pyramid image matching. The matching method based on correlation coefficient with geometric constraints and global relaxation matching is introduced in the process of image matching. Finally, the feasibility of the method proposed in this paper is verified by the experiments using a set of digital frame aerial images with big overlap. Compared with the traditional image matching method with two images, the accuracy of the digital surface model (DSM) generated using the proposed method shows that the multi-image matching method can eliminate the mismatched points effectively and can improve the matching success rate significantly. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 40771176, 40721001).     

多孔岩石波传播的热弛豫模型修正

经研究发现热弛豫模型的衰减比BISQ模型大得较多,与地球介质相比衰减量也过大;反演与实验结果相比在虚模量的低频(或低温)端和高频(或高温)端相差较大,仅在峰值附近符合较好.针对上述不足,将Arrhenius关系直接引进Biot模型,替换原模型引进的峰值点的频率对数和温度关系,并重新调整了模型参数.这样既改善了原模型衰减量过大,又克服了模型反演中虚模量峰值曲线两侧差异较大的缺点.进行了P波和S波的波传播分析,仍然在频率谱和温度谱上获得热弛豫峰和Biot峰.分析显示热弛豫峰导致波速随频率升高而上升的普遍规律,Biot峰导致波速随温度升高而上升的异常现象.在相同条件下对Biot模型,BISQ模型和热弛豫模型的P波波速和衰减进行了对比.热弛豫模型得到的速度频散更强,频散范围更宽,所得的衰减峰值频率比BISQ模型要低,衰减幅度比BISQ模型稍大.这些结果与实验结果相近,更符合实际.     

孔隙介质核磁共振弛豫测量多指数反演影响因素研究

孔隙介质核磁共振（NMR）弛豫信号的多指数反演在NMR岩芯分析与测井解释中起着关键作用.为了在不同信噪比条件下快速反演出高分辨率的弛豫时间谱,本文利用NMR正演模拟信号以及实验室NMR岩芯分析数据,研究横向弛豫时间布点数、原始回波采集个数、时间域数据压缩方式等对反演结果的影响.同时,在不同信噪比（SNR）下对不同的反演算法(SVD、BRD、SIRT)进行比较,考察反演算法对信噪比的敏感程度,并讨论了相应的校正方法.另外,还分析了信噪比对长、短弛豫组分的影响.研究表明在充分采集有用回波的情况下,减少回波个数,反演得到的弛豫时间谱趋向发散;增加布点数可以提高分辨率,但是需要更多的计算时间;时间域数据压缩可以加快反演计算速度;不同算法对信噪比的敏感程度不同,发展相应的校正方法可以提高反演质量.     

2017年米林6.9级地震与1950年察隅8.6级地震的关系及两次地震对周边活动断层的影响

2017年11月18日,我国西藏林芝市米林县发生M6.9地震.其东南220 km距离处,1950年发生了察隅8.6级大地震.二者同处喜马拉雅东构造结大拐弯处,周边分布多条活动断裂带.察隅地震作为20世纪我国内陆最大的地震,它的发生对周边断层活动性的影响目前研究尚少.本文基于分层半无限空间黏弹性地球模型,计算了察隅地震对周围活动断裂带和米林地震的影响,同时利用有限断层破裂模型计算了米林地震对周边活动断层产生的同震库仑应力变化,并分析了两次地震的关系,讨论了下地壳及以下介质的黏滞系数和断层有效摩擦系数对计算结果的影响.结果表明,察隅地震影响范围广、强度大且持续时间长,对喜马拉雅东构造结周边活动断层均产生了较大的影响,库仑应力变化达到数MPa量级.在下地壳黏滞系数为1.0×10²⁰ Pa·s、摩擦系数为0.4情况下,按照青藏高原主要活动断裂每年由正常构造运动应力累积1~4 kPa计算,察隅地震的发生使米林地震提前了相当于2.79~11.15年的时间.米林6.9级地震影响范围和强度有限,只对震源附近的活动断层产生一定影响,库仑应力变化最大为数十kPa量级,对远处的断层影响较小.下地壳及以下介质的黏滞系数在震后黏滞松弛过程中影响逐渐明显,断层有效摩擦系数对同震库仑应力计算影响较大.