Rapid afterslip and short-term viscoelastic relaxation following the 2008 M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

Significant postseismic deformation of the 2008 M W 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake has been observed from GPS data of the first 14 days after the earthquake. The possible mechanisms for the rapid postseismic deformation are assumed to be afterslip on the earthquake rupture plane and viscoelastic relaxation of coseismiclly stress change in the lower crust or upper mantle. We firstly use the constrained least squares method to find an afterslip model which can fit the GPS data best. The afterslip model can explain n...     

Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.     

成都地面气温与风速年极大值的渐近分布及参数估计

利用１９３３～１９９２年期间成都地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值的记录，通过统计推断，找出了成都地面最高气温年极值和地面最大风速年极值遵循的渐近分布——Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ分布和Ｇｕｍｂｅｌ分布，并讨论了它们的参数估计方法。     

Effective relaxation time and viscosity of the earth inferred from the postseismic vertical deformations of the 1990 MS=7.0 Gonghe earthquake

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An improved probabilistic relaxation method for matching multi-scale road networks

Matching multi-scale road networks in the same area is the first step in merging two road networks or updating one based upon the other. The quality of the merge or update depends greatly on the matching accuracy of the two road networks. We propose an improved probabilistic relaxation method, considering both local and global optimizations for matching multi-scale of road networks. The aim is to achieve local optimization, as well as to address the identification of the M:N matching pattern by means of inserting virtual nodes to achieve global optimization effects. Then, by adding two attribute-related evaluation indicators, we developed four evaluation indicators to evaluate the matching accuracy, considering both geographic and attribute information. This paper also provides instructions on how to identify the proper buffer threshold during matching procedures. Extensive experiments were conducted to compare the proposed method with the traditional approach. The results indicate that: (1) the overall matching accuracy of each evaluation indicator exceeds 90%; (2) the overall matching accuracy increases by 6–12% after an M:N matching pattern is added, and by 4–6% following the addition of topology indicators; and (3) the proper buffer threshold is about twice the average value of the closest distance from all nodes.     

Open Fissure Folds record coseismic loading and postseismic stress relaxation

Open Fissure Folds hosted by high pressure/low temperature metamorphic rocks of south Evia (Greece) are introduced, their structural and microstructural record is analysed, and a mechanical model is proposed. Open Fissure Folds are preserved as at least two parallel folded quartz–feldspar veins separated by narrow buckled rock columns. The veins originated as tensile cracks that propagated in the middle crust driven by high differential stress. Features diagnostic for Open Fissure Folds indicate that the rock columns represented the layers of high viscosity, and not the veins as consistently reported in many previous studies on folded veins. This record is taken to indicate that buckling of the rock columns initiated after arrest of the fractures and terminated prior to complete vein sealing. Accordingly, mechanical decoupling by open fissures allowed for buckling of the rock columns in response to episodic creep of the host rocks according to stress relaxation, as expected for postseismic deformation in the earthquake cycle. I propose that the parental fractures propagated in response to quasi-instantaneous coseismic loading of the middle crust. Buckling was attributed to transient postseismic creep and stress relaxation. Complete sealing of the veins occurred when stresses were largely relaxed. Each Open Fissure Fold records the stress and strain history of a single earthquake.     

鲜水河断裂带库仑应力演化与强震间关系

以鲜水河断裂带为研究区,首先验证了该断裂带上1893年以来M6.7以上地震的相互触发作用,然后采用更符合实际的分层黏弹介质模型研究强震震后黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化对后续地震的影响,并基于负位错理论计算鲜水河断裂带10个断层段的震间长期构造加载作用引起的断层上的应力积累.在此基础上,讨论同震、震后、震间效应引起的累积库仑应力变化与区域强震活动的关系,给出断层上库仑应力随时间的演化.结果表明,鲜水河断裂带上1893年以来发生的7次强震均在其前面一系列强震及构造应力加载的驱使下发生,同震、震后、震间三方面效应均引起了鲜水河断裂带不可忽略的库仑应力变化.对断层上的库仑应力状态的研究,可进一步为揭示地震的发生规律、找寻危险断层段提供线索.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime, known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas, Pakistan. Seismic Hazard Assessment （SHA） for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones, selection of appropriate attenuation equations, near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Fault, Banna Thrust, Balakot Shear Zone, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal Thrust, Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and, further to the south, the Sanghargali, Nathiagali, and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra. Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007, SHA has been carried out. Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated. Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault, with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch, has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data. The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations. The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g （10% probability of exceedance for 50 years） and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.     

塔里木盆地晚志留世-石炭纪伸展构造的发现及其地质意义

通过精细的地震资料解释,在塔里木盆地中部的满西地区发现晚志留世-石炭纪伸展构造。伸展构造由一系列规模不大的正断层组成,平面上组成两条北东-南西向的左行雁列状正断层带,剖面上构成负花状构造和堑垒构造。根据生长系数计算结果,正断层形成于晚志留世,在泥盆纪和石炭纪持续活动,于石炭纪末停止活动。正断层活动的高峰期为晚志留世。该期伸展构造在塔中和塔北地区也有发育,反映当时塔里木盆地处于区域性伸展构造背景。塔里木盆地晚志留世-石炭纪的伸展构造,是昆仑早古生代晚期（晚奥陶世-中志留世）碰撞造山后构造应力松弛作用的产物。     

引入松弛因子的高分辨率遥感影像自动多层次分割

针对当前高分辨率遥感影像多层次分割尺度参数设置缺少理论框架支持、人为因素影响较多等缺点,提出一种引入松弛因子的高分辨率遥感影像自动多层次分割方法。该方法利用1个松弛因子调节引导区域对象合并的异质性值大小,通过控制每次递归合并区域的对象个数,提高了整体分割的速度;以区域对象间异质性平均值作为基数,引入另一个松弛因子控制分割过程中层次输出的尺度参数,使整个分割过程自动得到不同尺度的多层次分割结果。实验结果表明,该方法具有较高的分割质量,能够满足遥感影像分析及地物提取的精度要求,并且减少了人为因素影响,提高了自动化程度。但是,对于复杂图像内容的地物目标边界处理和减少狭长区域对象的出现还需要进一步深入研究和实践。