围海造陆条件下排海高温浓盐水对渤海湾温盐场分布影响模拟及预测

自2000年以来围绕渤海湾的围海工程剧增,致使工程区附近潮流场发生变化,进而影响排海高温浓盐水的时空分布特征。本文通过建立2000年和2015年两种不同岸线、地形条件下的三维数学模型对渤海湾沿岸3个电厂高温浓盐水表层排海问题进行模拟,研究结果表明,渤海湾的潮流场和高温浓盐水输移扩散特征在近十几年发生了较大变化:工程后,渤海湾平均盐度增大0.203,平均温度升高了0.105℃,同时曹妃甸附近海域浓盐水输移扩散速度明显增加。增大排放口流量至12.7 m3/s,湾内最高温度为26.46℃,较2015年最高温度增加了2.72℃。本文模型可准确模拟及预测排海废水盐度、温度分布特征,为合理布置水电联产设备排放口的位置提供理论基础。     

胶州湾营养盐的现状和变化

报道了１９９１年５月至１９９４年２月１２个航次胶州湾ＮＯ３－Ｎ，ＮＯ２－Ｎ，ＮＨ４－Ｎ，ＰＯ４－Ｐ和ＳｉＯ３－Ｓｉ的时空分布基本特征，６０年代于至９０年代的变化表明，胶州湾营养盐的浓度和分布已发生显变化。尤其从６０年代至８０年代，３０年来，胶州湾中东部水城ＰＯ４－Ｐ，ＮＯ３－Ｎ和ＮＨ４－Ｎ浓度分别增加２．２，７．３和７．１倍，ＴＯＮ浓度也增加了３．５倍，ＴＩＮ／ＰＯ４－Ｐ从１０增加至２４．２；Ｔ     

渤海的平均余环流

利用72个渤海石油平台、站点测流资料,阐明了渤海的平均余环流特征,并用已有的数值计算结果阐明了其形成机制。观测表明在黄河三角洲近海存在一支北-东北向的流动,可抵达秦皇岛附近水域,数值计算表明该支流动主要是潮生的;在辽东湾北部存在一顺时针向的涡旋运动,在冬半年该涡旋是风生的;在渤海湾北部存在潮生的逆时针向的余环流。     

金衢盆地第四纪红土沉积粒度组成特征

浙江金衢盆地第四纪红土分布广泛,是开展红土与全球变化研究的理想场所之一。汤溪红土沉积剖面的粒度组成研究表明:砂(>63μm)含量极少,平均1.58%,粉砂(4~63μm)和黏粒(<4μm)为众数粒组,其含量的平均值分别为48.51%和49.91%,频率曲线呈双峰式,推测红土母质具风成特性,沉积后经历了较强的风化成壤作用;均质红土与网纹红土具有相似的粒度分布特征,但网纹红土的分选更为复杂,底部有近源物质的混入;汤溪红土粒度的纵向变化旋回和纵向变化趋势,可能指示了中更新世以来南方气候的不稳定性和气候逐渐变干冷的趋势。     

基于栅格叠合的沉积物底质图生成方法

文章提出了一种基于GIS空间插值和栅格图叠合技术,分析生成沉积物底质图的方法,并以曹妃甸海区为例,以170个海底表层沉积物样的粒度分析结果为依据,应用本文设计的方法生成这一海区的底质分布图,并用预留的20个采样点进行了精度分析和检验,在此基础上比较了不同的空间插值方法对生成的底质图结果的影响.结果显示出这一方法成图速度快、自动化程度高,但也存在对原始数据精度要求高、插值方法带来误差等问题.在借鉴传统底质图生成方法的基础上,运用三维TIN模型对成图结果进行改进,最终形成一种结合地貌要素的栅格叠合的沉积物底质图生成方法.     

点模式条件下的犯罪嫌疑人时空同现模式挖掘与分析

现有时空同现模式挖掘方法因其在空间和时间频繁阈值等参数值的设定上存在困难且缺乏客观依据的问题而难以被应用到犯罪地理研究中。为此,本文通过引入时空状态同现模式和最小时空参与率等概念对现有挖掘方法进行了重新建模,并结合广义Grubbs异常值检验提出了一种点模式分布下的犯罪嫌疑人时空同现模式挖掘框架。基于该框架对中国某省部分犯罪嫌疑人的真实移动轨迹数据的实验分析结果表明,本文所提出的方法能够有效地挖掘出嫌疑人间显著的时空同现模式,且这些模式的时空分布特征不仅与犯罪活动易发生在非农业生产区这一共识基本相符,还与日常活动理论的基本观点相适应。本文拓展了时空同现模式挖掘在犯罪地理研究中的应用,研究成果对公安机关等执法部门在重点监控某些犯罪嫌疑人以及合理分配和部署警力资源方面具有重要意义。     

A mixing-length model for predicting vertical velocity distribution in flows through emergent vegetation

Abstract

The vertical profiles of streamwise velocities are computed on flood plains vegetated with trees. The calculations were made based on a newly developed one-dimensional model, taking into account the relevant forces acting on the volumetric element surrounding the considered vegetation elements. A modified mixing length concept was used in the model. An important by-product of the model is the method for evaluating the friction velocities, and consequently bed shear stresses, in a vegetated channel. The model results were compared with the relevant experimental results obtained in a laboratory flume in which flood plains were covered by simulated vegetation.     

Statistical estimation of mineral age by K-Ar method

Statistical estimation of age of⁴⁰Ar/⁴⁰K ratios may be considered a result of convolution of uniform and normal distributions with different weights for different minerals. Data from Gul'shad Massif (Nearbalkhash, Kazakhstan, USSR) indicate that⁴⁰Ar/⁴⁰K ratios reflecting the intensity of geochemical processes can be resolved using convolutions. Loss of⁴⁰Ar in bioties is shown whereas hornblende retained the original content of⁴⁰Ar throughout the geological history of the massif. Results demonstrate that different estimation methods must be used for different minerals and different rocks when radiometric ages are employed for dating.     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.