影响热带气旋路径的敏感性试验与研究

针对热带气旋观测中的敏感区域问题,用数值模拟的方法,以GRAPES-TCM为试验模式,对登陆中国的2个热带气旋“派比安”与“圣帕”进行了敏感性试验,并通过模拟其他4个热带气旋路径对试验结果进行了验证.结果显示,初始场的不确定性导致了热带气旋路径的不确定性,但初始场中涡旋场的变化对路径几乎没有影响,环境场中位于涡旋外、距...     

两种样本生成方法对DRP-4DVar同化方法性能影响的比较及分析

降维投影四维变分同化方法(DRP-4DVar)利用历史预报的集合来统计背景误差协方差,并将分析变量投影到样本空间下求解代价函数,因而集合样本的质量对DRP-4DVar同化方法的性能有着重要影响.文中尝试使用三维变分(3DVar)控制变量的扰动方法来产生集合样本,并与原来的历史预报扰动方法做比较.历史预报扰动样本具有随流...     

LEO卫星轨道设计中的主要摄动源影响评估

对地球低轨道卫星 (LEO)轨道设计中的摄动力模型进行了分析 ,并估计了其量级。然后针对用于GPS无线电掩星的LEO卫星轨道设计对掩星地面测点稳定性的要求 ,对力学模型进行了取舍 ,同时估计了各摄动力模型对轨道设计目标的影响     

Modeling groundwater velocity uncertainty in nonstationary composite porous media

Despite the intensive research over the past decades in the field of stochastic subsurface hydrology, our ability to analyze and model heterogeneous groundwater systems remains limited. Most existing theories are either too restrictive to handle practical complexity or too expensive to be applied to realistic problem sizes. In this paper we present approximate, closed-form equations that allow modeling 2D nonstationary flows in statistically inhomogeneous aquifers, including composite aquifers containing multiple zones characterized by different statistical models. The composite representation has the effect of decreasing the variance of deviations from the mean, relaxing the limitation of the small-perturbation assumption. The simple formulas are illustrated with a number of examples and compared with a corresponding first-order nonstationary numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that, despite the gross simplifications, the closed-form equations are robust and able to capture complex variance dynamics, reproducing surprisingly well the first-order numerical solutions and the Monte Carlo simulation even in highly nonstationary, variable situations.     

A Parameterisation of the Effective Roughness Length over Inhomogeneous, Flat Terrain

A parameterisation ofthe effective roughness length is presented for an arbitrary givenroughness distribution z₀(x,y) over flat terrainat neutral stratification.Beyond pure averaging, it takes into account the spatial structure of the distribution, especially the influence of length scales, and inflow direction.To allow for interactions between different rough areas, Boussinesq-approximated equations with a turbulence closure of first order are considered and solved using perturbation theory.As a result, the logarithm of the effective roughness length isrepresented as a sum over the product of the Fourier transformation of log z₀ and a so-called dynamic function, which describesthe response of the flow field to a single wavelength of z₀.Although the numerical expenditure is larger than for simple averaging formulae,this method could be used by large-scale models to calculateeffective roughness lengths in every close-to-surface grid cell.     

Effects of cross-shore boundary condition errors in nearshore circulation modeling

The paper analyzes the effect which prescribed errors in the cross-shore boundary conditions for a computational domain along a beach have on the flow field predicted inside the domain. This problem is relevant because errors in boundary conditions are unavoidable when modeling limited domains of a nearshore region. For simplicity, we consider a longshore uniform plane beach with monochromatic, obliquely incident waves, and assume depth uniform currents. It is then studied analytically and numerically how small perturbations of the boundary conditions along both upstream and downstream cross-shore boundaries spread inside the computational domain. It is found that the errors at the upstream cross-shore boundary tend to spread over a long distance downstream of the boundary, while the influence of the errors in the downstream boundary condition is limited to the adjacent upstream area of the computational domain. Both the numerical and analytical solutions show that the errors introduced at the upstream boundary decay exponentially in the surf zone at a rate proportional to the bottom friction. A simple formula is developed to estimate the influence distance of the upstream errors. If we consider the mismatch in the volume flux at the upstream boundary, the error merely redistributes in the cross-shore direction to conserve volume. In the case of excessive flux or velocity specified at the cross-shore boundaries, a circulation cell tends to appear in the offshore region where the errors caused by the boundary mismatch increase with the cross-shore width of the model domain.     

Wave pressures on a vertical wall due to short-crested waves: fifth-order approximation

Non-linear wave pressure induced by short-crested waves on a vertical wall is an important factor to be considered in the design of coastal structures. The existing models to estimate the wave pressure in engineering design are limited to the third-order solution ([Hsu et al., 1979]). In this paper, an analytical solution up to the fifth-order is derived through perturbation approximation. This analytical closed-form solution is used to investigate the contributions of the higher-order components in short-crested waves. It is found that fifth-order components significantly affect the change of pressure, especially in shallow water and larger waves.     

声衍射层析成像中吸收型散射体的Rytov二阶近似重建

文中详细讨论了Rytov二阶近似下的声逆散射微扰论公式，并考察了它的适用范围. 介 绍了吸收型散射体的Rytov二阶近似重建算法，重建了散射体内部的波数和吸收系数. 这种 散射体的重建与纯位相型散射体的重建一样，不同的只是在计算正散射时考虑了吸收的影响 . 数值模拟给出了Born一阶、二阶和Rytov一阶、二阶近似重建的例子，说明Rytov二阶近似 在一定范围内比其他三种近似算法好.