区域极轨卫星ATOVS辐射偏差订正方法研究

近年来,卫星辐射资料在数值天气预报(NWP)系统中的直接同化研究取得了长足进展。为了利用TIROS业务垂直探测器(ATOVS)的辐射资料,必须对卫星观测辐射值的系统性偏差进行订正。在ECMWF原全球TOVS辐射偏差订正方案基础上,结合ATOVS资料特征和中国的实际情况,建立了适用于区域NOAA-15/16/17极轨气象卫星ATOVS辐射资料的偏差订正方案。该方案偏差订正分两步进行:首先进行扫描偏差订正,然后进行气团偏差订正。扫描偏差是临边测量相对于星下点测量的系统偏差,统计显示该种偏差具有一定的纬度依赖性,所以订正时按每10度的纬度带分别进行订正。气团偏差订正主要就是根据当时的天气条件进行订正,而天气条件一般用预报因子来定量表示。文中从中国国家气象中心T213背景场导出预报因子:(1)1000—300 hPa的厚度,(2)200—50 hPa的厚度,(3)模式地表温度,(4)总可降水量。模式预报因子的使用从观念上将对观测值的订正变为对计算前向辐射值的订正问题。试验结果表明,订正结果显著。     

用多角度遥感数据反演混合像元组分温度的可行性分析

利用多通道信息反演陆面温度的传统方法,由于通道间信息的高度相关使反演结果的精度难以提高,并且无法得到混合像元中的组分温度。文中以非同温混合像元热红外辐射方向性规律为基础,建立了连续植被类型非同温混合像元热红外辐射模型,用蒙特卡罗方法模拟分析了连续植被的组分有效比辐射率与变量的关系。结果表明:连续植被热辐射亮度值是组分温度T_v、T_s,叶面积指数LAI,叶倾角分布LAD,以及单叶面比辐射率ε_v(θ)和土壤表面比辐射率ε_v(θ)的函数。利用先验知识对变量进行分析后表明,6个变量中只有T_v、T_s、LAI、ε_v(0)需要反演。由于多角度间组分辐射亮度的相关性低,从理论上讲只需要4个角度的辐射亮度观测值就可以解出4个未知量而达到反演组分温度的目的。这4个角度数据除选择垂直方向上辐射亮度数据外,应在30°～50°视角范围内选择另外3个热辐射亮度数据。     

GPM卫星反演降水产品在江苏地区的适用性

以江苏省70个地面雨量站分钟观测数据为基准,对比分析了一个完整年周期GPM卫星搭载的双频降水雷达(DPR)反演降水产品精度。结果表明DPR常规模式(NS)、匹配模式(MS)和高灵敏度模式(HS)扫描产品反演降水与地面雨量计观测数据均在过境后几分钟内达到最佳匹配效果。以NS产品为例,全年反演降水均方根误差大致为2mm/h,相关系数在0.5以上,相对偏差为-20%左右。并且降水产品在夏季反演精度最高。对反演误差进行初步分析发现,卫星反演降水率算法精度对校正因子ε有非常强的敏感性,并且选择ε值的算法约束不足会导致最终计算求解模块SLV的路径积分衰减PIA值异常,引起极端降水反演的误差。     

6.3μm附近水汽通道的选择

本文用LOWTRAN 6程序计算了5.7—7.1μm和6.5—7.6μm两个水汽通道的透过率、射出辐射及权重函数,并将两者加以比较,探讨降低水汽通道探测高度的可能性。     

Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.     

人居环境治理视域下地质文化村建设路径研究

地质文化村是脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴背景下衍生出的乡村地质遗迹保护和开发利用相结合的新概念,目前正在全国多地推广设立,现有研究主要集中在内涵分析和规划设计方面,其具体建设过程中缺乏科学的路径参考。本研究从乡村人居环境治理的视角出发,首先,在讨论的基础上将地质文化村归类于人居环境“景区化治理”的一种形式;其次,基于扎根理论的研究方法将筛选的39篇“人居环境治理”主题文献作为研究资料,利用NVivo11对文献内容进行编码,构建了“人居环境治理”主题分析框架;最后,在归纳和借鉴人居环境领域研究成果的基础上,从“响应国家战略”、“建设思路”、“保障措施”“建设手段”四个方面提出了地质文化村的建设路径。     

东亚和西太平洋闪电时空尺度及光辐射能

利用2002—2014年的TRMM/LIS（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/lightning imaging sensor,热带测雨卫星/闪电成像仪）闪电观测数据分析了18°~36°N和70°~160°E范围内闪电尺度和光辐射能空间分布特征,并选取6个区域（区域1~6）,探讨09:00—14:00（地方时,下同）和18:00—次日06:00两个时段闪电上述属性的逐月变化和参数分布特征。研究指出:闪电空间尺度和光辐射能在深海最大,次之为近海和陆地,持续时间在中国东部近海最大,次之为深海和陆地。不同闪电属性大值分布区域差异明显,小值则分布在区域1和区域2。多数区域分析时段内闪电空间尺度和光辐射能的逐月变化趋势较一致,陆地上它们与闪电活动逐月变化的反向对应关系较明显。分析时段内闪电时空尺度和光辐射能均呈对数正态分布,陆地闪电各属性值比海洋闪电更向小值方向集中。在LIS观测性能较高的18:00—次日06:00,各区域内闪电持续时间中值为0.18~0.29 s,通道延展距离中值为12~21 km,光辐射能中值为0.11~0.52 J·m-2·sr-1·μm-1。分析时段内闪电空间尺度与光辐射能的相关性明显优于它们与持续时间的相关性。     

卫星探测辐射率在数值天气预报中的直接应用

该文叙述在数值天气预报中直接应用辐射率而不经过反演的原因，变分法在辐射率直接应用中的作用，以及介绍变分问题计算中的伴随方法。还指出ATOVS辐射率同样可以在NWP中直接应用。最后，介绍业务NWP直接应用辐射率的情况。     

Scientific objectives of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer mission

The 1981–82 Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) mission is described. The SME experiment will provide a comprehensive study of mesospheric ozone and the processes which form and destroy it. Five instruments will be carried on the spinning spacecraft to measure the ozone density and its altitude distribution from 30 to 80 km, monitor the incoming solar ultraviolet radiation, and measure other atmospheric constituent which affect ozone. The polar-orbiting spacecraft will be placed into a 3pm-3 am Sun-synchronous orbit. The atmospheric measurements will scan the Earth's limb and measure: (1) the mesospheric and stratospheric ozone density distribution by inversion of Rayleigh-scattered ultraviolet limb radiance, and the thermal emission from ozone at 9.6 m; (2) the water vapor density distribution by inversion of thermal emission at 6.3 m; (3) the ozone photolysis rate by inversion of the O₂(¹g) 1.27 m limb radiance; (4) the temperature profile by a combination of narrow-band and wide-band measurements of the 15 m thermal emission by CO₂; and, (5) theNO₂ density distribution by inversion of Rayleighscattered limb radiance at 0.439 m. The solar ultraviolet monitor will measure both the 0.2–0.31 m spectral region and the Lyman-alpha (0.1216 m) contribution to the solar irradiance. This combination of measurements will provide a rigorous test of the photochemical equilibrium theory of the mesospheric oxygen-hydrogen system, will determine what changes occur in the ozone distribution as a result of changes in the incoming solar radiation, and will detect changes that may occur as a result of meteorological disturbances.     

基于改进A*算法的水下重力匹配导航路径规划

水下重力匹配导航作为辅助手段,能够有效克服惯性导航系统在水下长时间航行产生的误差积累.重力场的不规则性,使得不同海域重力场适配性存在差异,重力特征变化显著的海域匹配精度较高,反之精度较低.在适配性评价基础上,对导航路径进行规划有助于提高作业任务可行性,合理规避不利因素.本文采用重力异常标准差、粗糙度等特征参数对海域重力场适配性进行评价,形成重力场适配格网参考图,引入A^*算法规划起始点和目标点间路径,达到了有效规避非适配区、提高航路设计合理性的目的.传统A^*算法存在的问题是,规划路径折线较多、线路总弯曲度大,本文设计了一种改进方法,通过前后向对比分析,对单个路径节点逐个进行筛选过滤,有效减少了冗余航向调整,实现了路径的平滑优化.