The Impact of Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation within a Frequently Updated Regional Forecast System Using a GSI-based Ensemble Kalman Filter

A regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) and forecast system was recently established based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. The EnKF DA system was tested with continuous threehourly updated cycles followed by 18-h deterministic forecasts from every three-hourly ensemble mean analysis. Initial tests showed negative to neutral impacts of assimilating satellite radiance data due to the improper bias correction procedure. In this study, two bias correction schemes within the established EnKF DA system are investigated and the impact of assimilating additional polar-orbiting satellite radiance is also investigated. Two group experiments are conducted. The purpose of the first group is to evaluate the bias correction procedure. Two online bias correction methods based on GSI 3DVar and EnKF algorithms are used to assimilate AMSU-A radiance data. Results show that both variational and EnKF-based bias correction procedures effectively reduce the observation and background radiance differences, achieving positive impacts on forecasts. With proper bias correction, we assimilate full radiance observations including AMSU-A, AMSU-B, AIRS, HIRS3/4, and MHS in the second group. The relative percentage improvements(RPIs) for all forecast variables compared to those without radiance data assimilation are mostly positive, with the RPI of upper-air relative humidity being the largest. Additionally, precipitation forecasts on a downscaled 13-km grid from 40-km EnKF analyses are also improved by radiance assimilation for almost all forecast hours.     

水位上升与荷载耦合作用下土坡稳定极限分析方法研究

边坡失稳产生的灾害不仅会给工农业生产带来巨大损失,也会对人民的生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。目前,滑坡灾害已与地震、火山并列成为全球3大地质灾害之一,其中由水库水位变化诱发的滑坡近来得到重视。因此,建立合理的边坡稳定性分析方法对预测以及防控滑坡灾害十分重要。实际中的边坡失稳过程往往在多种荷载因素的耦合作用下发生,但现有边坡极限分析等稳定性解析方法偏重于考虑单一荷载因素,难以合理考虑多类荷载耦合作用条件,缺乏对边坡稳定性依赖加载过程这一现象的合理解释。本文在极限分析原理的基础上,将水库区边坡所受荷载凝练为水位上升与坡顶加载的耦合作用。将水位荷载简化为水位线以下土体受到浮力以及黏聚力的减小,建立了一个土坡稳定性分析方法,编写了相应的数值计算程序,通过与离心模型试验结果进行对比验证了方法的有效性。该方法计算结果表明,边坡稳定性随坡顶荷载增加单调下降,而随水位上升表现出先降低后增加的非单调变化。因此,坡顶荷载与水位上升耦合加载过程中,边坡稳定性对于加载过程具有显著的依赖性。     

Atmospheric correction for China''s coastal water color remote sensing

INTRODUcrIONMeasurements from satellite have demonstrated that space sensor can be applied to measurethe sPectra of water-leaving radiance and proven that ocean color remote sensing is a powerfultcol for understanding oceanic, biological and physical processes. One sPecial ocean color satel-lite heaStar was successfully launched in August l997. It has brought to oceanOgraphers a wel-comed and improvd renewal of the ocean color of CZCS, VHRSR and arS. ffeaWiFS con-tributes much bette…     

二类水体的MODIS数据大气校正及在渤海表层水体叶绿素浓度监测反演中的应用研究

提出一种适用于中国近岸二类水体的大气校正方法,解决了水色遥感软件SEADAS由于无法计算近岸的二类水体离水辐射率而简单地将其设为0的问题。应用该方法计算出的离水辐射率反演了渤海表层水体的叶绿素浓度,并选取近岸同期监测点的实测值对反演结果进行验证。通过对比反演值与实测值,多数相对误差值均较小于10%,证明了反演结果较为准确,同时反演的叶绿素浓度的空间分布也符合冬季渤海的水团和环流状况。这说明应用改进后的大气校正方法能够很好地用于渤海表层水体的叶绿素浓度反演。     

太湖长孢藻属(Dolichospermum)生物量长期动态变化及驱动因子

针对近年来太湖水体中长孢藻（Dolichospermum,曾用名鱼腥藻Anabaena）比例增加的趋势,本文研究了2005—2019年太湖春季不同湖区长孢藻生物量的长期变化趋势和空间差异,探究了冬、春季气象条件（气温、日照时长、风速、降雨量）和营养盐（总氮、总磷）水平对其的影响.结果表明,2005—2019年太湖监测数据显示春季长孢藻生物量有比较明显的升高现象,主要发生在竺山湖富营养程度较高的区域,其次是湖心区、梅梁湾和南部湖区.偏最小二乘路径建模（PLS-PM）结果表明,不同湖区长孢藻生物量变化的主要驱动因素存在差异.在湖心区,春季长孢藻的生物量主要受冬季气候条件（气温、风速、日照时长）的影响,其次受春季营养盐和春季气候条件的影响.在梅梁湾、竺山湖和南部湖区,春季长孢藻的生物量主要受春季气候条件的影响.在梅梁湾和竺山湖,春季风速、日照时长是春季长孢藻生物量的显著影响因子;在南部湖区,春季长孢藻生物量的主要驱动因素是春季的日照时长和春季气温.本研究从长时间序列角度,对太湖固氮蓝藻的时空分布特征和影响因素开展了研究,为太湖不同湖区开展针对性的藻类水华防控和富营养化治理提供理论基础.     

ATOVS卫星资料同化对三江源暴雨预报影响的试验研究

选取3个三江源的典型降水个例(2018年6月30日、7月5日、8月24日),利用NCEP FNL再分析数据,并加入ATOVS湿度探测器MHS资料同化,基于WRF模式及其三维变分同化系统对三江源区域3次降水过程进行循环同化试验,分析3次事件的模拟状况,并定量分析降水结果。结果表明,3次降水事件在加入MHS资料同化后,1)模拟的水汽增大,在中层体现最明显且更符合实际情况,高空水汽和风模拟较好,地面温度预报欠佳;2)MHS资料对降水预报的影响主要体现在降水区面积和降水量的增大,提高了降水预报水平,但也带来较多空报区域;3)从TS、ETS、POD评分结果来看,有两个降水试验的提升较为明显,其中“0630”试验TS评分结果在0.5～10 mm之间提升了0.05～0.1,ETS在5 mm提升超过0.08,在10～20 mm之间也有少量提升,POD检验在0.5～20 mm之间均有提升,在0.5～10 mm之间提升最为明显,提升了0.1～0.25,“0824”试验TS与ETS在10～20 mm之间提升超过0.1,POD检验在6～20 mm之间提升了0.1～0.4,同化后降水预报有所改善,且在大阈值降水尤为明显;4)MHS资料同化对“0705”试验降水预报改善不明显,说明同化并不是每次都能给结果带来正效应,因此在使用MHS资料时不能过于信赖它,但总体上,同化MHS资料能够提升预报质量。     

Paleomagnetic results of Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks from Xingshan-Zigui section in Hubei Province, South China

The paleomagnetic reconnaissance study of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks from the Yangtze Block (YZB) was made to conduct the Apparent Polar Wander Path (APWP) of the YZB during the Phanerozoic. A total of 825 samples from 84 sites were collected from a continuous section along the Xiangxi River valley in Xingshan and Zigui counties in Hubei Province, northern margin of the YZB. Stepwise thermal/alternating demagnetization isolated well defined characteristic magnetization (ChRM) at a higher temperature in most of the samples, and relatively thermal stability and high coercivity were revealed from these samples. All the ChRMs can pass the fold and/or reversal tests, suggesting that they are probably primary. Therefore, new pole positions are presented for the YZB. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49334050).     

线目标空间冲突自动检测研究现状

由于线要素的特殊性和复杂性,线要素逐步成为空间冲突检测的重点和难点。通过对线目标空间冲突自动检测技术和方法现状的研究,指出了当前研究方法的不足和局限,并以道路空间冲突检测为例,提出了利用基于空间关系思想检测线线空间冲突的方法。     

基于S2000光谱仪的小型海面高光谱辐射计的研制

将普通的小巧型S2000光谱仪组装改造成用于海面测量的高光谱辐射计,安装在船只等移动平台上进行原位测量,可以获得向下辐照度和向上辐亮度的实验数据.阐述了整体设计思路,说明了其光路结构,光学采集单元分为光谱辐照度光学探头和光谱辐亮度光学探头.叙述了通过机械结构的调整来更准确地测量离水辐亮度,并给出了基于计算机进行显示和存储的编程软件.此系统获得的试验测量结果可以为海洋学研究提供充分的现场光学数据,有一定的实用价值.     

青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)贝壳形态性状对软体部重的影响分析

随机抽取中国及日本海域的1龄青蛤(Cyclina shiensis)245个,分别测量其壳高、壳长、壳宽、韧带长、壳重及软体部重等形态学和生产性状,采用相关分析、通径分析、决定系数分析和多元回归分析方法,讨论了贝壳各形态性状对软体部重的影响.结果表明,青蛤的壳高对软体部重相关系数r1y和直接影响通径系数Pi分别达到了0.953和0.938,统计检验均达到了极显著水平(P<0.01).此外,壳高对软体部重的决定系数R12为0.9080,多元回归分析亦显示出青蛤的壳高与软体部重具有显著的相关性(P<0.01).实验结论认为,壳高对青蛤的生产性状影响最大,可以作为青蛤种质选育的重要甄别性状.