基于MRPs无陀螺卫星姿态确定的抗差估计算法

针对精确航天器姿态问题,采用修正罗德里格参数(MRPs)表示姿态,用动力学方程进行角速率的传播,分别基于等价协方差和观测残差统计特性的协方差调整方法,实现UKF算法的抗差效果,并通过仿真验证该方法的有效性。仿真结果表明：在含有粗差的情况下,两种抗差UKF算法均能得到稳定的状态估计值,而第二种方法计算效率更高。     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Under stress permeability determination of the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone

In the underground waste isolation projects such as the ANDRA'one in the site of Bure, the transport properties of the surrounding rock mass is of fundamental importance. To measure very low permeability, we use the modified version of the pulse test proposed by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] which enables the intrinsic permeability, k, and the specific storage coefficient, S_s, of rocks such as mudstone to be characterized. In this paper, the special effort performed on the laboratory apparatus design, to ensure a good sensitivity of the rock response with respect to both parameters, k and S_s, is presented. In addition, two parameters identification procedures are proposed: the graphical method given by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] and a parameter identification based on the solution of an inverse problem. The efficiency of the apparatus design and the parameters identification procedures is then demonstrated though some pulse tests performed on the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone.     

样本输入方式对极端学习机预报日长变化的影响

针对极端学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)用于日长(Length-Of-Day,LOD)变化预报过程中,样本输入方式对预报结果的影响进行了研究。采用跨度、连续和迭代3种样本输入方式对日长变化进行预报。结果表明,不同的样本输入方式对预报结果有很大影响,样本按跨度输入的预报精度最低;样本采用连续输入方式在短期和中长期预报中预报精度较高,但计算速度较慢,较适合中长期预报;样本按迭代输入方式的短期预报精度稍优于连续输入方式,而中长期预报精度则不如连续输入方式,但具有较高的预报效率。这对于日长变化的实时快速预报有着较高的现实意义。     

Mkn501长期光变性质

在R和I波段对Mkn 501进行了测光观测,并结合历史文献得到Mkn 501在近30年间的光学、红外和射电等多个波段的光变曲线;讨论了光变与色指数之间的关系,发现色指数(B—V)与(B—R)之间有强相关,相关系数r=0.73.利用DCF方法分析了多波段光变的相关性,发现B波段与4.8GHz和红外波段的光变存在一定的正相关,利用CLEANest方法对B波段的光变曲线进行频谱分析,结果表明Mkn 501的光变曲线存在2个可能的周期,即(10.06±0.04)年和(21.60±0.17)年.     

电法勘探在常德市松散孔隙含水层中涌水量预测的应用

常德市水文地质及电测深、电测井的资料反映了孔隙水含水层涌水量的大小与含水层厚度、颗粒组分及其结构的多因素的复杂组合──—厚度（Ｍ）与视电阻率（ρ＿ｓ）的乘积密切相关，据此可预测单井涌水量。     

基于GIS和洛伦兹曲线的辽宁省海岛空间分布特征探析

为合理开发利用和保护辽宁海岛资源,优化海岛产业结构和布局,以辽宁纳入中国海域海岛标准名录的633个海岛为研究对象,在对其地理坐标、陆域面积等基础数据进行数理统计的基础上,通过GIS的空间分析和绘制洛伦兹曲线、计算基尼系数,对辽宁海岛的空间分布特征进行了分析与研究。结果表明:辽宁海岛属集聚型分布类型,在空间上呈组团与带状分布,按聚集程度来看,形成了黄海北部长山群岛集聚区、辽东半岛南部浅海集聚带与辽东湾西部浅海集聚带三个区域;约60%的海岛处在离大陆岸线直线距离在10 km以内的范围内,近陆程度高;海岛陆域面积分布不均衡,基尼系数达0.9。     

基于大地形变测量的中国大陆中长期强震危险区研究

应用GPS、 水准、 重力和跨断层形变观测资料, 在以往研究成果的基础上, 分析中国大陆现今地壳形变场、 重力场变化形态, 分析主要活动断裂带应变积累状态, 识别强闭锁、 高应变积累段, 结合大震对区域应变积累的影响, 估计未来10年尺度中国大陆地区可能发生大地震的危险区域。     

短期气候预测的评估问题

该文系统地介绍了国内外评估月、季尺度短期气候预测结果的方法 ,比较了相关系数(R)、预报技巧分 (S)和准确率 (P)的特点 ,并对当前国内外气候预测业务水平进行了分析 ,着重对大气环流、气温、降水及 ENSO的预测水平进行了评估 ,指出国内外月、季尺度的降水预报的水平目前在 55%～ 60 %左右 ,对 ENSO的发生、结束和强度的预报水平有限 .文中探讨了短期气候预测的可预报性问题 ,提出月、季尺度气候预测的可预报性的理论上限可能为 6～ 1 2月 ,准确率在 80 %～ 85%之间 .     

Exploring hyperspectral bands and estimation indices for leaf nitrogen accumulation in wheat

Hyperspectral sensing can provide an effective means for fast and non-destructive estimation of leaf nitrogen (N) status in crop plants. The objectives of this study were to design a new method to extract hyperspectral spectrum information, to explore sensitive spectral bands, suitable bandwidth and best vegetation indices based on precise analysis of ground-based hyperspectral information, and to develop regression models for estimating leaf N accumulation per unit soil area (LNA, g N m⁻²) in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Three field experiments were conducted with different N rates and cultivar types in three consecutive growing seasons, and time-course measurements were taken on canopy hyperspectral reflectance and LNA under the various treatments. Then, normalized difference spectral indices (NDSI) and ratio spectral indices (RSI) based on the original spectrum and the first derivative spectrum were constructed within the range of 350–2500 nm, and their relationships with LNA were quantified. The results showed that both LNA and canopy hyperspectral reflectance in wheat changed with varied N rates, with consistent patterns across different cultivars and seasons. The sensitive spectral bands for LNA existed mainly within visible and near infrared regions. The best spectral indices for estimating LNA in wheat were found to be NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆), and the regression models based on the above four spectral indices were formulated as Y = 26.34x^1.887, Y = 5.095x − 6.040, Y = 0.609 e^3.008x and Y = 0.388x^1.260, respectively, with R² greater than 0.81. Furthermore, expanding the bandwidth of NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀) and RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀) from 1 nm to 100 nm at 1 nm interval produced the LNA monitoring models with similar performance within about 33 nm and 23 nm bandwidth, respectively, over which the statistical parameters of the models became less stable. From testing of the derived equations, the model for LNA estimation on NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆) gave R² over 0.79 with more satisfactory performance than previously reported models and physical models in wheat. It can be concluded that the present hyperspectral parameters of NDSI (R₈₆₀, R₇₂₀), RSI (R₉₉₀, R₇₂₀), NDSI (FD₇₃₆, FD₅₂₆) and RSI (FD₇₂₅, FD₅₁₆) can be reliably used for estimating LNA in winter wheat.