低纬高原地区短时强降水与雷电活动相关性研究

为了研究短时强降水过程与雷电活动过程的相关性,统计了 2012-2016年云南省126个国家级气象站的短时强降水次数和降水量,以及强降水时段内、强降水前1小时站点周边50公里、30公里、10公里半径范围内的地闪次数.运用概率统计理论分析强降水过程发生时、过程前1小时周边不同尺度范围内地闪发生的概率.同时应用相关回归方法...     

初值协调性对模式数值积分结果的影响

利用国家气候中心新一代全球大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0.1,考虑了初值协调性对模式数值积分结果的影响,进行了两组数值回报试验(简称S1,S2),对27年(1980～2006年)的夏季基本气候态进行了对比分析,并考察了该模式对夏季气候的回报技巧。使用交叉检验的方法,计算了对模式结果的评估参数值,包括时间和空间距平相关系数,对该模式性能进行了评估和检验。结果表明,BCC_AGCM2.0.1对季节尺度的大气环流场具有良好的模拟性能,模式基本上再现了观测位势高度场、温度场、流场的分布特征以及大尺度降水分布特征。500 hPa位势高度、温度空间距平相关系数对比表明,平均而言,500 hPa位势高度、温度的空间距平相关性,热带区域(30°S～30°N)高于东亚区域(0°～60°N,60°E～150°E)和全球区域。回报与观测的降水距平百分率相关系数分布对比表明,试验S2在我国江淮地区及南方地区的回报技巧要明显优于S1。     

Influences of Physical Processes and Parameters on Simulations of TOA Radiance at UV Wavelengths: Implications for Satellite UV Instrument Validation

Numerous factors can influence the radiative transfer simulation of hyper-spectral ultraviolet satellite observation,including the radiative transfer scheme, gaseous absorption coefficients, Rayleigh scattering scheme, surface reflectance, aerosol scattering, band center wavelength shifts of sensor, and accuracy of input profiles. In this study, a Unified Linearized Vector Radiative Transfer Model(UNL-VRTM) is used to understand the influences of various factors on the top of atmosphere(TOA) normalized radiance in the ultraviolet(UV) region. A benchmark test for Rayleigh scattering is first performed to verify the UNL-VRTM accuracy, showing that the model performances agree well with earlier peer-reviewed results. Sensitivity experiments show that a scalar radiative transfer approximation considering only ozone and a constant surface reflectance within the UV region may cause significant errors to the TOA normalized radiance. A comparison of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite(OMPS) radiances between simulations and observations shows that the surface reflectance strongly influences the accuracy for the wavelengths larger than 340 nm. Thus, using the surface reflectivity at 331 nm as a proxy for simulating the whole OMPS hyperspectral ultraviolet radiances is problematic. The impact of rotational Raman scattering on TOA radiance can be simulated through using SCIATRAN, which can also reduce the difference between measurements and simulations to some extent. Overall, the differences between OMPS simulations and observations can be less than 3% for the entire wavelengths. The bias is nearly constant across the cross-track direction.     

Numerical models of RC elements and their impacts on seismic performance assessment

This paper aims to provide a guideline for numerical modeling of reinforced concrete (RC) frame elements for the seismic performance assessment of a structure. Several types of numerical models of RC frame elements are available in nonlinear structural analysis packages. Because the numerical models are formulated based on different assumptions and theories, the models' accuracy, computing time, and applicability vary, which poses a great difficulty to practicing engineers and limits their confidence in the analysis results. In this study, the applicability of five representative numerical models of RC frame elements is evaluated through comparison with 320 experimental results available from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research column database. The accuracy of a numerical model is evaluated according to its initial stiffness, peak strength, and energy dissipation capacity of the global responses. In addition, a parametric study of a cantilever RC column subjected to earthquake excitation is carried out to systematically evaluate the consequence of the adopted numerical models on the maximum inelastic structural responses. It is found from this study that the accuracy of the numerical models is sensitive to shear force demand–capacity ratio. If a structural period is short and the structure is shear critical, the use of numerical models that can explicitly capture the shear deformation and failure is suggested. If the structural period is long, the selection of a numerical model does not greatly influence the global response of the structure. The paper also presents statistical parameters of each numerical model, which can be used for probabilistic seismic performance assessment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODIS Terra Collection 6 fractional snow cover validation in mountainous terrain during spring snowmelt using Landsat TM and ETM+

Daily swath MODIS Terra Collection 6 fractional snow cover (MOD10_L2) estimates were validated with two‐day Landsat TM/ETM + snow‐covered area estimates across central Idaho and southwestern Montana, USA. Snow cover maps during spring snowmelt for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 were compared between MODIS Terra and Landsat TM/ETM + using least‐squared regression. Strong spatial and temporal map agreement was found between MODIS Terra fractional snow cover and Landsat TM/ETM + snow‐covered area, although map disagreement was observed for two validation dates. High‐altitude cirrus cloud contamination during low snow conditions as well as late season transient snowfall resulted in map disagreement. MODIS Terra's spatial resolution limits retrieval of thin‐patchy snow cover, especially during partially cloudy conditions. Landsat's image acquisition frequency can introduce difficulty when discriminating between transient and resident mountain snow cover. Furthermore, transient snowfall later in the snowmelt season, which is a stochastic accumulation event that does not usually persist beyond the daily timescale, will skew decadal snow‐covered area variability if bi‐monthly climate data record development is the objective. As a quality control step, ground‐based daily snow telemetry snow‐water‐equivalent measurements can be used to verify transient snowfall events. Users of daily MODIS Terra fractional snow products should be aware that local solar illumination and sensor viewing geometry might influence fractional snow cover estimation in mountainous terrain. Cross‐sensor interoperability has been confirmed between MODIS Terra and Landsat TM/ETM + when mapping snow from the visible/infrared spectrum. This relationship is strong and supports operational multi‐sensor snow cover mapping, specifically climate data record development to expand cryosphere, climate, and hydrological science applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时变行星际太阳风模拟及其结果评估

背景太阳风对于地球附近的空间环境有着重要的影响,三维磁流体力学太阳风模型是背景太阳风研究和预报的重要工具.通过太阳光球磁场数据驱动的边界条件,我们发展了一个时变的行星际三维磁流体力学太阳风模型.使用这个模型,我们模拟了2008年全年的行星际背景太阳风,分析了该年太阳风结构全球特征的演化和行星际局地观测与日冕结构间的联系.实现了一套太阳风连续参数和特征结构模拟质量的定量评估方法.对2008年模拟结果的评估表明,模型较好地重现了背景太阳风的大尺度特征.模拟与观测速度间的相关性系数达到了0.6以上,行星际磁场强度与观测吻合得较好,捕获了全部的行星际磁场极性反转和82.76%的流相互作用区,行星际磁场极性反转的误报率仅为6.67%,流相互作用区的误报率仅为11.11%,两种结构的到达时间误差在1天左右.同时,通过综合分析评估结果,我们明确了高速流结构、内边界磁场分布等模型在进一步改进中需要重点注意的问题.

     

Fluid sensitivity study of elastic parameters in low-medium porosity and permeability reservoir rocks

In this article, based on the acoustic measurements of core samples obtained from the low to medium porosity and permeability reservoirs in the WXS Depression, the densities and P and S wave velocities of these core samples were obtained. Then based on these data, a series of elastic parameters were computed. From the basic theory and previous pore fluid research results, we derived a new fluid identification factor (F). Using the relative variations, A_g/w and A_o/w, of the elastic parameters between gas and water saturated samples and between oil and water saturated samples, λρ, σ _HSFIF, Kρ, λρ − 2μρ, and F as quantitative indicators, we evaluate the sensitivity of the different fluid identification factors to identify reservoir fluids and validate the effects by crossplots. These confirm that the new fluid identification factor (F) is more sensitive for distinguishing oil and water than the traditional method and is more favorable for fliud identification in low to medium porosity and permeability reservoirs.     

The influence of parametric uncertainty on the relationships between HBV model parameters and climatic characteristics

Abstract

An HBV rainfall–runoff model was applied to test the influence of climatic characteristics on model parameter values. The methodology consisted of the calibration and cross-validation of the HBV model on a series of 5-year periods for four selected catchments (Axe, Kamp, Wieprz and Wimmera). The model parameters were optimized using the SCEM-UA method which allowed for their uncertainty also to be assessed. Nine climatic indices were selected for the analysis of their influence on model parameters, and divided into water-related and temperature-related indices. This allowed the dependence of HBV model parameters on climate characteristics to be explored following their response to climate change conditioned on the catchment’s physical characteristics. The Pearson correlation coefficient and weighted Pearson correlation coefficient were used to test the dependence. Most parameters showed a statistically significant dependence on several climatic indices in all catchments. The study shows that the results of the correlation analysis with and without parametric uncertainty taken into account differ significantly.     

Impact of model simplifications on soil erosion predictions: application of the GLUE methodology to a distributed event‐based model at the hillslope scale

In this paper, we analyse how the performance and calibration of a distributed event‐based soil erosion model at the hillslope scale is affected by different simplifications on the parameterizations used to compute the production of suspended sediment by rainfall and runoff. Six modelling scenarios of different complexity are used to evaluate the temporal variability of the sedimentograph at the outlet of a 60 m long cultivated hillslope. The six scenarios are calibrated within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework in order to account for parameter uncertainty, and their performance is evaluated against experimental data registered during five storm events. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, percent bias and coverage performance ratios show that the sedimentary response of the hillslope in terms of mass flux of eroded soil can be efficiently captured by a model structure including only two soil erodibility parameters, which control the rainfall and runoff production of suspended sediment. Increasing the number of parameters makes the calibration process more complex without increasing in a noticeable manner the predictive capability of the model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validating a Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model (the PTVA Model) Using Field Data from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

The “PTVAM” tsunami vulnerability assessment model [Papathoma and Dominey-Howes: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 733–744; Papathoma et al.: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 377–389], like all models, requires validation. We use the results from post-tsunami surveys in the Maldives following the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to ‘evaluate’ the appropriateness of the PTVAM attributes to understanding spatial and temporal vulnerability to tsunami damage and loss. We find that some of the PTVAM attributes are significantly important and others moderately important to understanding and assessing vulnerability. Some attributes require further investigation. Based upon the ground-truth data, we make several modifications to the model framework and propose a revised version of the PTVAM (PTVAM 2).