象山皇城海滩稳定性分析与防护对策

以浙江岬湾砂质海岸象山皇城海滩为例,运用抛物线模型,分析得出皇城海滩的冲淤演化动态,并通过历史岸线形态对比探讨皇城海塘对其的影响,最终提出防止海岸侵蚀的对策。研究结果表明,皇城海滩北部有一定的侵蚀,其平面形态还未达到静态平衡,处于不稳定状态;皇城海滩北段海塘修建得过于靠海,致使海滩最重要的泥沙补给源——后滨沙丘被阻断,甚至消失,同时大潮水位可直接淹没海塘堤脚,加上海塘前为近破波,滩面水流和泥沙运动剧烈,最终导致堤前滩面的冲刷。基于此,防止海岸侵蚀的最佳对策是在拆除、重建海滩北部部分海塘后再进行适当的海滩养护。通过对皇城海滩的稳定性研究,了解海塘建设的影响,可为浙江岬湾海滩资源的合理开发、海岸防护工程建设提供一定的科学依据。     

湘鄂赣二叠纪岩相古地理研究

湘鄂赣二叠纪沉积盆地是在华南陆块基础上发育而成,具有扬子克拉通北缘被动大陆边缘盆地、扬子克拉通盆地、湘赣板内拉张盆地和华夏克拉通边缘盆地等四类。根据古暴露等标志,建立了各类盆地的沉积层序,并进行了区域对比。在此基础上,本文着重运用层序地层编图法编制了湘鄂赣二叠纪岩相古地理图,深化了该区岩相古地理研究,详细建立了沉积体系域模式和岩相古地理演化特点和控制因素。     

THE APPLICATION OF IMAGE-BASED MODELING IN PALEOEARTHQUAKE TRENCH STUDY

The geological structure exposed by paleoearthquake trenches is the key material to the right cognition of fault activity and paleoearthquake. However, paleoearthquake trenching inevitably destroys active tectonic geomorphic evidence and trench exposures are usually difficult to reserve. The conventional process of recording the delicate geological information, manually constructing photomosaics by image-editing software, is time-consuming and produces undesirable artificial distortions. Herein, we explored the process of constructing trench orthophotomosaics and the 3D image model using the Image-based Modeling technology and applied it to the Liutiaohe trench across the Tianqiaogou-Huangyangchuan Fault, Gansu Province. Based on the 3D image modeling and orthophotomosaic, we firstly constructed the control points and scale bars on cleaned trench walls and collected photos of all sections of the trench with a digital camera in the field, and then reconstructed the 3D model of the trench through the Agisoft PhotoScan, an efficient image-based modeling software, and finally yielded the 3D image model of the trench and othophotomasaics of the trench exposures. The results show that the automated workflow can produce seamless, sub-millimeter-level high-resolution photomosaics more quickly, with precision in the centimeter range, and the 3D image model is of great help to identify strata and geological structures in trenches with much lower capital and labor costs and low expertise levels compared with LiDAR, meanwhile, the 3D archive benefits the share and communication and even allows future reinterpreting the site using new insights.     

流速逆变张量隐式求解方法及其在航道港池流场计算中的应用

运用高分辨率的边界适应网格进行流体动力学数值计算时,如何提高计算稳定性和减少计算量成为数值求解的关键性问题.在非正交的边界适应坐标系中,每个动量方程中同时出现了两个交叉方向的水位偏导数项,给隐式求解带来困难,而显式格式下的时间步长由于受与空间步长有关的Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy条件限制,计算量成倍增加.本文从广义曲线坐标系下浅海动力学方程组出发,导出了流速的逆变张量所满足的动量方程组,使方程中的水位偏导数项变成了沿某一协变基向量方向占优的形式,方便地采用了交替方向隐式差分格式,从而提高了计算稳定性并减小了计算量.本文通过对澳门海域航道和港池中流场的计算,证实了该模式是一种进行高分辩率数值计算的有效方法.     

Tropospheric Ozone in a Global-Scale Three-Dimensional Lagrangian Model and Its Response to NOX Emission Controls

A three-dimensional Lagrangian tropospheric chemistry modelis used toinvestigate the impact of human activities on the tropospheric distributionofozone and hydroxyl radicals. The model describes the behaviour of 50 speciesincluding methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide andnineorganic compounds emitted from human activities and a range of other sources.Thechemical mechanism involves about 100 chemical reactions of which 16 arephotochemical reactions whose diurnal dependence is treated in full. The modelutilises a five minute chemistry time step and a three hour advection timestepfor the 50,000 air parcels. Meteorological data for the winds, temperatures,clouds and so on are taken from the UK Meteorological Office global model for1994 onwards. The impacts of a 50% reduction in European NO_Xemissions onglobal ozone concentrations are assessed. Surface ozoneconcentrations decrease in summertime and rise in wintertime, but to differentextents.     

HYSPLIT模式轨迹计算误差分析

基于NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料GDAS和NCEP2.5°×2.5°再分析资料GBL,利用美国NOAA 空气资源实验室ARL研发的一种用于计算和分析大气污染物输送、扩散轨迹的混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模式HYSPLIT,对2010年3月12日12时和田站距地100 m高度空气质点的3 d前向轨迹进行了模拟,分析了轨迹计算中的积分误差和分辨率误差.此次轨迹模拟试验中,积分误差对轨迹计算误差的贡献很小.随着积分时间的延长,积分误差略有增大.积分误差并未随着驱动数据分辨率的提高而减小.分辨率误差在积分的各个时刻并不相同,它与地形高度与天气系统有关.在轨迹模式中,轨迹计算基于风速在时间和空间上的线性插值,轨迹模拟的不确定性也与插值有关.使用不同分辨率的驱动数据对轨迹计算结果影响显著,分辨率误差对轨迹计算误差的贡献远大于积分过程中截断近似等带来的积分误差.     

惠民凹陷南坡石炭二叠系煤层二次生气模式

利用开放体系程序升温热模拟实验方法,对惠民凹陷南坡石炭—二叠系煤岩样品的热演化规律进行了研究,建立了该区石炭二叠系含煤地层有机质的生气模式,探讨了影响二次生气潜力的各种主控因素,为准确评价其资源潜力和计算远景资源量奠定了基础,对渤海湾盆地其他类似地区煤型气勘探具有指导意义。     

青藏高原净生态系统碳交换量的遥感评估模型研究

青藏高原作为世界海拔最高的区域,是全球气候变化的敏感区之一。定量估算这一区域的净生态系统碳交换量（NEE）有利于理解陆地生态系统碳平衡对未来气候变化的响应。本文构建了一个模拟该地区NEE动态变化的净碳收支模型（NCBM）。该模型由来源于MODIS影像的增强型植被指数（EVI）、陆地表面水分指数（LSWI）以及来源于地面观测的空气温度和短波辐射共同驱动,并利用青藏高原地区的3种植被类型（包括高寒灌丛、高寒湿地和高寒草甸）的碳通量长期观测数据对模型进行了校准和验证。结果表明,在模型校准站点年,NCBM模型可以模拟NEE观测值81%的变化,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.03molC/m2/d,模型效率（EF）为0.81。在模型验证站点年,NCBM模型可以预测NEE观测值84%的变化,RMSE为0.03molC/m2/d,EF为0.81。在大多数情况下,NCBM模型可以清晰地模拟各植被类型的NEE季节和年际变化。此外,NCBM模型因为结构简单,模型驱动变量易于获取等优势,具有在区域尺度上模拟NEE时空变化的潜力。但是该模型还需要进一步的改进和发展,特别需要提高对植被非常稀疏地区NEE变化的模拟能力。     

Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

我国劳动力市场动态均衡分析与实证研究

运用蛛网模型对劳动力市场进行动态均衡分析，给出劳动力市场均衡的条件及影响因素，利用中国劳动力市场的有关数据对其进行实证，采用时间序列分析方法对中国未来几年的劳动力市场均衡状态进行预测，并提出改善我国劳动力市场均衡状态的思路。