控制论与人工影响天气 I: 人工增雨作业中的正反问题及最优调控

利用自然控制论的观点,重新审视了人工影响天气诸多方面的问题,提出了人工调控有限区域天气的正问题和反问题,并对最优调控问题,根据观测实例进行了分析讨论.结果表明,自然控制论是指导开展人工影响天气的一个好的理论框架,不仅要加强观测以了解自然降水过程,发展数值模式以更好的模拟实际降水过程,更需要开展反问题的研究;对最优调控的讨论表明,不能仅仅局限于有无催化可能,更应全面考虑降水云系的结构.     

条件非线性最优扰动方法在适应性观测研究中的初步应用

针对适应性观测中敏感性区域的确定问题,考虑初始误差对预报结果的影响, 比较了条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)与第一线性奇异向量(FSV)在两个降水个例中的空间结构的差异,考察了它们总能量范数随时间发展演变的异同。结合敏感性试验的分析,揭示了预报结果对CNOP类型的初始误差的敏感性要大于对FSV类型的初始误差的敏感性,因而减少初值中CNOP类型误差的振幅比减少FSV类型的收益要大。这一结果表明可以把CNOP方法应用于适应性观测来识别大气的敏感区。关于将CNOP方法有效地应用于适应性观测所面临的挑战及需要采取的对策等也进行了讨论。     

Origin of the LLSVPs at the base of the mantle is a consequence of plate tectonics——A petrological and geochemical perspective

In studying the petrogenesis of intra-plate ocean island basalts(OIB) associated with hotspots or mantle plumes, we hypothesized that the two large-low-shear-wave-velocity provinces(LLSVPs) at the base of the mantle beneath the Pacific(Jason) and Africa(Tuzo) are piles of subducted ocean crust(SOC)accumulated over Earth's history. This hypothesis was formulated using petrology, geochemistry and mineral physics in the context of plate tectonics and mantle circulation. Because the current debate on the origin of the LLSVPs is limited to the geophysical community and modelling discipline and because it is apparent that such debate cannot be resolved without considering relevant petrological and geochemical information, it is my motivation here to objectively discuss such information in a readily accessible manner with new perspectives in light of most recent discoveries. The hypothesis has the following elements:(1) subduction of the ocean crust of basaltic composition to the lower mantle is irreversible because(2) SOC is denser than the ambience of peridotitic composition under lower mantle conditions in both solid state and liquid form;(3) this understanding differs from the widespread view that OIB come from ancient SOC that returns from the lower mantle by mantle plumes, but is fully consistent with the understanding that OIB is not derived from SOC because SOC is chemically and isotopically too depleted to meet the requirement for any known OIB suite on Earth;(4) SOC is thus the best candidate for the LLSVPs, which are, in turn, the permanent graveyard of SOC;(5) the LLSVPs act as thermal insulators, making core-heating induced mantle diapirs or plumes initiated at their edges, which explains why the large igneous provinces(LIPs) are associated with the edges of the LLSVPs;(6) the antipodal positioning of Jason and Tuzo represents the optimal momentum of inertia, which explains why the LLSVPs are stable in the spinning Earth.     

消化性溃疡病的医学气象研究

根据1984～1993年北京友谊医院的病例资料和北京地区同期气象资料的对比分析,揭示了消化性溃疡病检出率的季节变化规律和年际变化特点以及不同季节该病症高发过程的气象条件,并在此基础上应用最优子集回归法设计了对冬、秋、夏各季检出率具有预测意义的数学模型。     

碳中和目标下中国燃煤电厂CCUS集群部署优化研究

燃煤电厂作为中国最大的CO₂排放源,是中国实现碳中和目标的关键点。CO₂捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）技术是目前煤电行业实现深度减排的唯一途径,碳约束情景下,CCUS技术将在实现煤电碳达峰、碳中和目标中发挥不可或缺的作用。研究中首先使用综合环境控制模型（IECM）对燃煤电厂捕集技术环节的成本构成和经济性进行核算,得到中国燃煤电厂逐厂CO₂捕集成本和捕集量;其次,基于地质利用封存潜力及分布特征,构建CCUS源汇匹配优化模型,得到碳中和目标下的煤电CCUS项目分阶段布局方案;最后,以优化基础设施建设并通过规模经济降低成本为前提,使用聚类分析方法对煤电CCUS项目集群进行识别,进一步构建改进成本最小生成树模型,得到CCUS项目集群最低成本CO₂输送管道网络的路线优化策略。研究表明：碳中和目标约束下,需要对总装机容量约为355 GW的300个燃煤电厂进行CCUS技术改造,2030—2060年间可实现累积减排190.11 亿t CO₂。煤电CCUS项目集群主要分布在华中、华北和西北地区,通过建立CCUS枢纽以实现CO₂运输基础设施共享,在松辽盆地、渤海湾盆地、苏北盆地和鄂尔多斯盆地优先开展CCUS早期集成示范项目,能显著降低运输成本,推动CCUS技术大规模、商业化发展。     

Minimum mean squared error (MSE) adjustment and the optimal Tykhonov–Phillips regularization parameter via reproducing best invariant quadratic uniformly unbiased estimates (repro-BIQUUE)

In a linear Gauss–Markov model, the parameter estimates from BLUUE (Best Linear Uniformly Unbiased Estimate) are not robust against possible outliers in the observations. Moreover, by giving up the unbiasedness constraint, the mean squared error (MSE) risk may be further reduced, in particular when the problem is ill-posed. In this paper, the α-weighted S-homBLE (Best homogeneously Linear Estimate) is derived via formulas originally used for variance component estimation on the basis of the repro-BIQUUE (reproducing Best Invariant Quadratic Uniformly Unbiased Estimate) principle in a model with stochastic prior information. In the present model, however, such prior information is not included, which allows the comparison of the stochastic approach (α-weighted S-homBLE) with the well-established algebraic approach of Tykhonov–Phillips regularization, also known as R-HAPS (Hybrid APproximation Solution), whenever the inverse of the “substitute matrix” S exists and is chosen as the R matrix that defines the relative impact of the regularizing term on the final result. The delay in publishing this paper is due to a number of unfortunate complications. It was first submitted as a multi-author paper in two parts. Due to some miscommunication among the original authors, it was reassigned to one of the J Geod special issues, but later reassigned at this author’s request to a standard issue of J Geod. This compounded with a difficulty to find willing reviewers to slow the process. We apologize to the author.     

Cost Optimization of Reinforced Earth Walls

This paper deals with optimum cost (objective function) design of geosynthetic reinforced earth retaining walls subjected to static and dynamic loading. The design restrictions are imposed as design constraints in the analysis. Choice of the initial designed length and strength of the reinforcement, which are the elements of the design vectors are made in a way that it forms an initial feasible design vector. Thus the problem is one of mathematical programming. The constraints and the objective function being nonlinear in nature, the Sequential Unconstrained Minimization Technique (SUMT) has been used in conjunction with conjugate direction and quadratic fit methods for multidimensional and unidirectional minimization to arrive at the optimal (minimum) cost of the reinforced earth wall. Optimal cost tables are presented for different combinations of the loading and the developed procedure is validated by taking up an example problem. It has been found from the typical example problem that saving of the order of 7–8% can be made over the conventional design of mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls with the aid of design charts.     

淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值研究

基于淮河上游地区11个气象站点1959—2015年降水资料,利用夏玉米气候产量与生育期降水序列进行相关性分析,确定降水影响夏玉米生长的关键时段,定义为夏玉米生长降水关键期,并采用21种分布函数对降水关键期内降水序列进行拟合,选取K-S和A-D方法进行拟合优度检验,建立最优概率分布模型,再基于降水概率分位数法定量化设计夏玉米各级旱涝的降水阈值R,并验证指标的合理性。结果表明:(1)淮河上游地区夏玉米抽雄-成熟生育时段及前一旬降水量对夏玉米产量影响显著;(2)各站点夏玉米生长降水关键期内降水序列的最优概率分布模型差异明显;(3) 11个站点夏玉米各级旱涝灾害的降水阈值地区差异较大,利用泰森多边形法确定整个淮河上游地区夏玉米生长降水关键期内旱涝致灾降水阈值分别是:重旱R73 mm,旱73 mm≤R138 mm,正常138 mm≤R337 mm,涝337 mm≤R475 mm,重涝R≥475 mm。     

A universal nutrient application strategy for the bioremediation of oil-polluted beaches

Biostimulation by nutrient application is a viable technology for restoring oil-contaminated beaches. Maximizing the nutrient residence time is key for achieving a rapid cost-effective cleanup. We considered the nutrient injection strategy through a perforated pipe at the high tide line and we simulated numerically beach hydraulics, which allowed us to estimate the optimal injection flow rate of nutrient solution. Our results indicate that the optimal application is one that starts following the falling high tide and lasts for half tidal cycle. The saturated wet-front of the nutrient solution on the beach surface would move seaward with the same speed of the falling tide keeping a constant distance with the tide line. The numerical results were generalized to beaches of wide ranges of hydraulic and tidal properties using a novel dimensionless formulation for water flow and solute transport in porous media. Nomographs were presented to provide the flow rate based on four parameters: The beach slope and hydraulic conductivity, and tidal amplitude and period.     

云台凤凰山太阳光谱最佳观测时间讨论

将一年中可以进行光谱观测的时间相对最多,同时太阳成像质量相对较好的月份作为光谱观测最佳时间。为此我们统计了光谱仪1976年到1987年的观测资料,初步分析得出云台凤凰山太阳光谱最佳观测时间的年分布情况,相对好一些的是9月份,其次是3～4月份。