全球海洋资料同化系统ZFL_GODAS的研制和初步评估试验

本研究发展了一个全球海洋资料同化系统ZFL_GODAS。该系统是一个短期气候数值预测业务系统的子系统,为短期气候预测海气耦合模式提供全球海洋初始场。系统能够同化的观测资料包括卫星高度计资料、卫星海表温度(SST)资料,以及Argo、XBT、TAO等各种不同来源的现场温盐廓线资料。系统使用的海洋模式为中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室开发的气候系统海洋模式LICOM1.0,同化方案为集合最优插值(EnOI)方案。系统使用一个由海洋模式自由积分得到的静态样本来估计背景场误差协方差。这样的基于集合样本的背景场误差协方差具有多变量协变、各向异性的特征,且能反映海洋物理过程固有的空间尺度特征。针对EnOI同化程序的特点,开发了一套特色鲜明、负载均衡、高效的并行化同化程序。本文通过与不同类型观测资料的比较,对同化系统的性能进行了评估。通过比较海表温度和海面高度的年际变率,海表温度异常随时间的变化,SST、海面高度异常(SLA)以及次表层温盐预报产品的均方根误差,5年平均温度偏差廓线、平均盐度廓线、平均纬向流速廓线等发现:系统工作正常、同化效果较好;经过同化以后,各变量都更加接近观测,误差更小,与观测场的相关性更好,可以为短期气候预测系统提供较好的海洋初始场,也可以为物理海洋学的研究提供有效的再分析资料。     

地下水动态观测网优化设计研究

本文采用状态空间分析法,通过对地下水流系统输入变量、输出变量及地下水动态测量值的研究,提出了地下水流系统确定一随机性数值模型。运用该模型的模拟解,进行地下水动态观测网优化设计。该方法把地下水动态观测网密度、位置及观测频率优化与地下水流系统结合起来研究。为了克服该模型计算量大的缺陷,本文提出了一种改进算法,使这一观测网优化方法适于在微机上实现,减少了计算工作量。该方法曾用于陕西某地区地下水位动态观测网的优化设计,取得了显著经济效益。     

有序样品聚类的最优分割应用程序开发

在地层划分、蚀变、矿化、圈定矿体的研究中，有序样品聚类的最优分割法——数学处理方法是一个十分有效的方法，而该方法的数据处理是一个复杂而繁琐的过程。为了有志于地质研究的爱好者，根据最优分割的数学处理原理，将最优分割法编制成易于为非计算机专业人员所利用的处理软件，并免费共享。该程序使用方便，操作简单，只要按文中说明加以编辑，即可投入使用。     

Minimum conformal mapping distortion according to Chebyshev’s principle: a case study over peninsular Spain

Defining the distortion of a conformal map projection as the oscillation of the logarithm of its infinitesimal-scale σ, Chebyshev’s principle states that the best (minimum distortion) conformal map projection over a given region Ω of the ellipsoid is characterized by the property that σ is constant on the boundary of that region. Starting from a first map of Ω, we show how to compute the distortion δ₀(Ω) of this Chebyshev’s projection. We prove that this minimum possible conformal mapping distortion associated with Ω coincides with the absolute value of the minimum of the solution of a Dirichlet boundary-value problem for an elliptic partial differential equation in divergence form and with homogeneous boundary condition. If the first map is conformal, the partial differential equation becomes a Poisson equation for the Laplace operator. As an example, we compute the minimum conformal distortion associated with peninsular Spain. Using longitude and isometric latitude as coordinates, we solve the corresponding boundary-value problem with the finite element method, obtaining δ₀(Ω)=0.74869×10⁻³. We also quantify the distortions δ_l and δ_utm of the best conformal conic and UTM (zone 30) projections over peninsular Spain respectively. We get δ_l=2.30202×10⁻³ and δ_utm=3.33784×10⁻³.     

An Optimal Adaptive Kalman Filter

In a robustly adaptive Kalman filter, the key problem is to construct an adaptive factor to balance the contributions of the kinematic model information and the measurements on the state vector estimates, and the corresponding learning statistic for identifying the kinematic model biases. What we pursue in this paper are some optimal adaptive factors under the particular conditions that the state vector can or cannot be estimated by measurements. Two optimal adaptive factors are derived, one of which is deduced by requiring that the estimated covariance matrix of the predicted residual vector equals the corresponding theoretical one. The other is obtained by requiring that the estimated covariance matrix of the predicted state vector equals its theoretical one. The two related optimal adaptive factors are given. These are analyzed and compared in theory and in an actual example. This shows, through the actual computations, that the filtering results obtained by optimal adaptive factors are superior to those obtained by adaptive factors based on experience.     

Optimal design of a regional seismological network for the Arab countries

The Arab countries cover a large portion of the African and Arabian plates, a region characterized by seismic activity along complex continental collision zones, active seafloor spreading, rifting, and intraplate earthquakes. Establishing a standardized regional seismic network in these countries, then, is of great importance. Considerable effort of some Arab countries and UNESCO under project PAMERAR is under way to achieve this goal. A design for the spatial distribution of a regional seismic network in the area, based on a D-optimal planning criterion, is proposed in this paper. The method, which involves optimizing the geographical locations of stations, is based on the probability of earthquake occurrence at a given point in the seismic region, travel times of seismic waves, and minimization of the ellipsoid volume of earthquake location errors.     

汾渭地震带及晋陕豫交界区的地震活动分期

本文应用“最优分割法”,分别对汾渭地震带及晋陕豫交界区的地震活动进行了分期,并对结果进行了讨论。     

CNOP-P-based parameter sensitivity for double-gyre variation in ROMS with simulated annealing algorithm

Reducing the error of sensitive parameters by studying the parameters sensitivity can reduce the uncertainty of the model,while simulating double-gyre variation in Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P)is an effective method of studying the parameters sensitivity,which represents a type of parameter error with maximum nonlinear development at the prediction time.Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP).In the paper,we proposed an improved simulated annealing(SA)algorithm to solve CNOP-P to get the optimal parameters error,studied the sensitivity of the single parameter and the combination of multiple parameters and verified the effect of reducing the error of sensitive parameters on reducing the uncertainty of model simulation.Specifically,we firstly found the non-period oscillation of kinetic energy time series of double gyre variation,then extracted two transition periods,which are respectively from high energy to low energy and from low energy to high energy.For every transition period,three parameters,respectively wind amplitude(WD),viscosity coefficient(VC)and linear bottom drag coefficient(RDRG),were studied by CNOP-P solved with SA algorithm.Finally,for sensitive parameters,their effect on model simulation is verified.Experiments results showed that the sensitivity order is WD>VC>>RDRG,the effect of the combination of multiple sensitive parameters is greater than that of single parameter superposition and the reduction of error of sensitive parameters can effectively reduce model prediction error which confirmed the importance of sensitive parameters analysis.     

The Crustal Velocity Structure of Western Inner Mongolia

The terrain of Inner Mongolia is long and narrow, and the geological structure is complicated. The South China crustal velocity model and Inner Mongolias optimal crustal velocity model 2015 cannot fully meet the earthquake location requirements of Inner Mongolia. Based on the seismological observations produced by Inner Mongolia Seismic Digital Network from 2009 to 2016,the initial model was obtained by using the linear fit of the seismic phases and the converted travel time curve. The Hyposat results of 225 earthquakes that occurred in western Inner Mongolia were scanned using this model,and the velocity model for western Inner Mongolia was determined as follows: V1= 6. 06 km/s;VPb= 6. 61 km/s; Vn= 8. 12 km/s; H1= 30 m; and the Moho depth H = 44 km. Comparison of the test results of the new model and the reference model shows that the residual error of the new model and the mean deviation of the epicenter location have obviously decreased.     

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SUBMERGENCE RATIO OF A RECTANGULAR SUBMERGED VANE WITH A COLLAR

1 INTRODUCTION Odgaard and Kennedy (1983) suggested that for values of angle of attack, α greater than or equal to approximately 20o, a persistent scour hole is produced near the upstream end of a vane. As α was reduced the number of vanes producing obj…