鞍山某基坑支护工程事故分析

论述了鞍山某基坑支护工程设计参数的选取与加固措施,分析了出现事故及险情的原因,总结了鞍山地区基坑支护设计与施工的经验和教训。     

基于 MATLAB 的坐标转换方法研究

利用MATLAB强大矩阵计算功能,精确地计算不同坐标系之间的转换参数,实现不同坐标系之间的坐标快速转换。实践结果表明,该方法使用方便,结果准确,转换精度高,可满足不同坐标转换精度需求。     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

岩石地球化学图解信息分析辅助系统的研究与开发

在岩石地球化学理论的框架下,用该领域专家在实际工作中的思维方法来描述岩石地球化学数据处理与分析的固有流程,以岩石地球化学参数和图解为应用研究对象,利用岩石地球化学与计算机软件技术交叉的研究方法,概括岩石地球化学数据的特征及其处理方法。通过对双变量图解、三变量图解特征的分析,将数据计算分为主量和微量元素相关参数计算、主量和微量元素标准矿物计算、同位素相关计算,设计合理、有效的算法,实现岩石地球化学图解的数据管理、分类、参数选择与计算、表达式识别、绘制、坐标转换、投点等图解成图全过程的自动化。     

面向同化的探空温度数据质控参数优化及误差特性分析

针对双权重标准差法对探空温度质量控制中阈值参数不确定的问题,提出了以正态波形指标偏度和峰度为判定依据的阈值Z参数优化算法。利用2017年福建3部探空温度资料和ERA5模式再分析温度数据,对探空温度增量数据进行不同数据集质控前后对比分析总结出：峰偏值C_KS随阈值Z的分布曲线表明阈值Z偏大则会造成质控不完全,阈值Z偏小则会造成过度质控;以峰偏值C_KS所确定的最优阈值Z双权重标准差法比固定阈值的更符合模式同化系统正态分布要求,为探空温度数据在模式同化的应用提供了更好的质控方法。在质控前后温度增量分布特征上,温度观测增量总是以某一固定增量值在整个气压高度上剔除离群值,其中57.15%的离群点主要分布在0～100 hPa范围内,42.85%的离群点均匀分布在100～1000 hPa范围内,其中0～100 hPa范围内温度增量绝对值大于10℃的异常点是由于温度传感器受太阳辐射等因素影响超出了正常探测误差范围,这些异常点可以在质控前提前剔除,进一步提升探空温度数据质量。     

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究

利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。     

相关法雷达反演风场在台风监测和分析中的应用

随着我国沿海雷达网的建设,雷达资料正逐步成为沿海气象台站台风临近登陆时的一个重要监测手段。利用相关法雷达风场反演对2001年登陆台风“百合”和“飞燕”作了环流和强度估测分析。结果表明,通过适当的质量控制,该方法可以有效地反演得到台风强风分布特征,分析精度与业务中常用的卫星估测方法相当。     

基于AMSR-E的北疆地区积雪深度反演

利用北疆地区2007/2008-2009/2010年度积雪季(12月至次年2月)的AMSR-E降轨19 GHz与37 GHz波段的水平极化亮温数据, 结合北疆地区45个气象台站的实测雪深数据, 建立了北疆地区基于AMSR-E亮度温度数据的雪深反演模型, 并对模型的精度进行评价. 结果显示: 雪深在3~10 cm时, 模型反演的雪深值负向平均误差为-5.1 cm, RMSE值为6.1 cm; 雪深在11~30 cm时, 模型反演雪深值的平均误差仅为2.6 cm, RMSE、 正向平均误差、 绝对平均误差均较小; 雪深大于30 cm时, 模型反演的各项误差较大. 用合成方法反演北疆地区2006/2007-2010/2011年度5个积雪季的平均雪深分布和最大雪深分布, 结果显示北疆地区积雪主要分布于北部阿尔泰山和南部天山一带, 其中阿勒泰地区所占比重最大, 中部的准噶尔盆地腹地、 克拉玛依地区雪层较浅.     

On the solar cycle dependence of winds and planetary waves as seen from mid-latitude D1 LF mesopause region wind measurements

At the Collm Observatory of the University of Leipzig LF D1 low-frequency total reflection nighttime wind measurements have been carried out continuously for more than two decades. Using a multiple regression analysis to derive prevailing winds, tides and the quasi-2-day wave from the half-hourly mean values of the horizontal wind components, monthly mean values of mesopause wind parameters are obtained that can be analysed with respect to long-term trends and influences of solar variability. The response of the prevailing wind to the 11-year solar cycle differs throughout the year. While in winter no significant correlation between the zonal prevailing wind and solar activity is found, in spring and summer a negative correlation between the TWC can be seen from the measurements. This is connected with stronger vertical gradients of the zonal prevailing wind during solar maximum than during solar minimum. Since the amplitude of the quasi-2-day wave is dependent on the zonal mean wind vertical gradient, this is connected with a positive correlation between solar activity and quasi-two-day wave activity.Paper Presented at the Second IAGA/ICMA (IAMAS) Workshop on Solar Activity Forcing of the Middle Atmosphere, Prague, August 1997