Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis.By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI),typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen.We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons.In addition,the Yah Meng(YM)wind field model was introduced,and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed.Using the YM wind field model,extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons.The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.     

风暴液化沉积的波动分选Monte-Carlo模拟

风暴潮会引起近岸沉积物再沉积,重新沉积的沉积物具有上细下粗的正粒序排列特征。通过风暴液化沉积模拟试验,我们研究了液化沉积物波动分选的问题,即试验堆中不同粒径颗粒的成层问题。为了更好地了解颗粒成层问题,基于MonteCarlo方法,本文根据简化后的砂砾碰撞模型模拟了液化波动后砂砾的分层并给出了砂砾碰撞轨迹图及液化波动分布图。结果解释了两个关键问题:(1)液化沉积物在长时间的波动振荡过程后,相对粗的颗粒在液化沉积物层的下部聚集较多,上部较少,相对细的颗粒在液化沉积物层的上部聚集较多,下部较少;(2)作为标识的砂和砾石没有集中在样品柱的下部。     

地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性影响分析

本文基于全概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法,利用蒙特卡罗模拟研究在不同临界屈服加速度a_c、永久位移模型、场地类别和断层距情况下,地震动强度参数相关性对地震滑坡危险性结果的影响规律。主要结果表明:在进行滑坡危险性分析时,不考虑多地震动强度参数相关性会造成预测位移值偏小,滑坡风险被低估。因此,考虑地震动强度参数相关性对滑坡危险性评价很有必要,这能使预测结果反映地震动参数样本作为输入时的实际相关性特征,为合理进行滑坡防护提供理论依据和参考。     

江淮北区6～7月降水异常与北太平洋海温的SVD分析

REOF结果表明,江淮地区6~7月降水可以分为南、北两个区;江淮北区6~7月降水和海温的SVD分析结果表明:影响江淮北区6~7月降水异常的海温关键区(关键区)是北太平洋海域,关键时段是当年的1~2月;当年1~2月北太平洋关键区海温异常偏高(偏低),同年6~7月中国的江淮、华南、东北地区降水偏多(少),华北、西北、西南呈降水偏少(多),其中江淮北区相关系数绝对值最大,通过0.05的Monte-Carlo显著性水平检验。     

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Surface Crack Growth Rate for Offshore Structural Steel E36 Z35

—The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate foroffshore structural steel E36-Z35,and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in theParis equation.By this method,the time and cost of fatigue crack propagation testing can be reduced.Theapplication of the method is demonstrated by use of four sets of fatigue crack propagation data foroffshore structural steel E36-Z35.A comparison of the test data with the theoretical prediction for surfacecrack growth rate shows the application of the simulation method to the fatigue crack propagation tests issuccessful.     

Modeling soil variability as a random field

The observed variability in the spatial distribution of soil properties suggests that it is natural to describe such distribution as a random field. One of the ways to study engineering problems in such a stochastic setting is by the use of the Monte-Carlo simulation procedure. Application of this technique requires the capability to generate a large number of realizations of a given random field. A numerical procedure for the generation of such realizations in two-dimensional space is introduced as a finite difference approximation of a stochastic differential equation. The equation used was that suggested by Heine (1955). The resulting procedure is essentially similar to other autoregressive procedures used for the same purpose (Whittle, 1954; Smith and Freeze, 1979). However, contrary to these procedures, the present one is defined in terms of physically significant parameters:r ₀, the autocorrelation distance;, the discretization size; and the standard deviation, . Formulating the simulation procedure in terms of the physically significant parameters (r ₀,, ) greatly simplifies the task of generating realizations that are compatable with a given soil deposit.     

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures

During the life of an offshore structure,its structural strength declines due to various kinds ofdamages related to the time factor.In this paper,four major kinds of damages,including damages causedby fatigue,dent,corrosion and marine life,are discussed.Based on these analyses,formulas for theevaluation of the damaged structure reliability are derived.Furthermore the computer program ISM forthe analysis of structural reliability is developed by the use of Advanced First Order Second Moment meth-od and Monte-Carlo Importance Sampling method.The reliability of a turbular joint and a beam are stu-died as numerical examples.The results show that the theory and the analysis method given in this paperare reasonable and effective.     

辽东湾锥体平台结构疲劳冰荷载的蒙特卡洛模拟

利用辽东湾JZ20-2海域的海冰现场监测和数值推算资料,确定了海冰的厚度、速度和弯曲强度等海冰参数的概率分布特征;通过构造锥体结构动冰力函数,对该海域锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载进行了蒙特卡洛模拟.统计结果表明冰力幅值和冰力周期均符合对数正态分布.为更加合理地确定锥体平台结构的疲劳冰荷载,对冰力幅值和周期进行了联合概率分析.研究成果可用于辽东湾JZ20-2海域锥体平台结构的可靠性设计和疲劳寿命评估。     

岩石质量指标的计算机模拟及其风险分析

利用Monte Carlo法在计算机上生成岩体节理网络图，然后建立了模拟计算不同阀值的岩石质量指标RQDt的计算机模拟方法。进一步可作出岩石质量描述图和岩石质量风险分析，分析了岩体中大于10cm的完整岩石的具体分析规律。实例表明，该方法能较全面地描述岩石质量。