蒙特卡罗法在资源评价中的应用

结合陕西灞源地区金矿预测实例,探讨了在蒙特卡罗法应用中潜在矿床总数估计及资源总量概率分布向资源潜力分布转换两个环节的合理实现方法。在一定条件下,矿点空间分布模型和发现过程模型可有效地用于估计潜在矿床总数。通过坐标平移或求截尾分布而将资源总量的概率分布转变为资源潜力的概率分布,可得到较为符合地质实际的评价结果。     

Monte-Carlo Simulations of Cosmic-ray and Internal Radiation Effects on ISOCAM on Board ISO

One of the main limitations to the sensitivity of the infrared camera ISOCAM on-board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) comes from responsivity variations and glitches caused by the impacts of charged particles in photo-detectors. Glitch rate measurements, glitch properties and removal methods have already been addressed during the first ISO detector workshop(Madrid, 1998) and published in a special issue of Experimental Astronomy. It appeared that glitch rate and most of glitch properties could be reproduced by Monte-Carlo simulations. This is very interesting in order to predict before launch the effect of charged particles in photo-detectors operated in space. This paper presents results of Monte-Carlo simulations of radiation effects on ISOCAM detectors. Glitch rates, spatial and energetic properties of glitches have been computed and are compared with measured values. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Simulation Study on High Energy Cosmic Electron Detection by Shower Image

Many projects have recently been carried out and proposed for observing high energy electrons since it is realized that cosmic ray electrons are very important when studying the dark matter particles and the acceleration mechanism of cosmic rays. An imaging calorimeter, BETS （Balloon-borne Electron Telescope with Scintillator fiber）, has been developed for this purpose. Using pattern analysis of the shower development, the electrons can be selected from those primary cosmic ray proton events with flux heights one-tenth that of the electrons. The Monte-Carlo simulation is indispensable for the instrument design, the signal trigger and the data analysis. We present different shower simulation codes and compare the simulation results with the beam test and the flight data of BETS. We conclude that the code FLUKA2002 gives the most consistent results with the experimental data.     

Joint PDF Modelling of Turbulent Flow and Dispersion in an Urban Street Canyon

The joint probability density function (PDF) of turbulent velocity and concentration of a passive scalar in an urban street canyon is computed using a newly developed particle-in-cell Monte Carlo method. Compared to moment closures, the PDF methodology provides the full one-point one-time PDF of the underlying fields containing all higher moments and correlations. The small-scale mixing of the scalar released from a concentrated source at the street level is modelled by the interaction by exchange with the conditional mean (IECM) model, with a micro-mixing time scale designed for geometrically complex settings. The boundary layer along no-slip walls (building sides and tops) is fully resolved using an elliptic relaxation technique, which captures the high anisotropy and inhomogeneity of the Reynolds stress tensor in these regions. A less computationally intensive technique based on wall functions to represent the boundary layers and its effect on the solution are also explored. The calculated statistics are compared to experimental data and large-eddy simulation. The present work can be considered as the first example of computation of the full joint PDF of velocity and a transported passive scalar in an urban setting. The methodology proves successful in providing high level statistical information on the turbulence and pollutant concentration fields in complex urban scenarios.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), composite analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer (colder) than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases (decreases) in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.     

An analysis of the radar backscatter from oil-covered sea surfaces using moment method and Monte-Carlo simulation: preliminary results

An analysis of the radar backscattering from the ocean surface covered by oil spill is presented using a microwave scattering model and Monte-Carlo simulation. In the analysis, a one-dimensional rough sea surface is numerically generated with an ocean waveheight spectrum for a given wind velocity. A two-layered medium is then generated by adding a thin oil layer on the simulated rough sea surface. The electric fields backscattered from the sea surface with two-layered medium are computed with the method of moments (MoM), and the backscattering coefficients are statistically obtained with N independent samples for each oil-spilled surface using the Monte-Carlo technique for various conditions of surface roughness, oil-layer thickness, frequency, polarization and incidence angle. The numerical simulation results are compared with theoretical models for clean sea surfaces and SAR images of an oil-spilled sea surface caused by the Hebei (Hebei province, China) Spirit oil tanker in 2007. Further, conditions for better oil spill extraction are sought by the numerical simulation on the effects of wind speed and oil-layer thickness at different incidence angles on the backscattering coefficients.     

西安白鹿塬北缘黄土边坡稳定的可靠度分析

在西安白鹿塬北缘实测了14个黄土自然边坡断面,建立了地质模型,通过采样测试并收集已有的测试资料,获得了各时代黄土地层的物理力学参数,将Morgenstern-Price法稳定性计算公式作为极限状态方程,分别采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法进行了边坡稳定的可靠度分析。结果表明:采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到的14个边坡稳定系数分别为1.11～1.41和1.09～1.33,显示这些边坡处于基本稳定—稳定状态;采用上述两种方法得到的边坡可靠指标分别为0.56～1.79和0.39～1.60,得到的失效概率分别为3.4%～29.0%和5.5%～34.8%,并且共有75%的边坡失效概率大于10%,失效可能性较大。统计结果表明:白鹿塬区边坡的坡高和坡度存在负相关性。低而陡的边坡潜在最危险滑面剪出口较高,失效概率较小;坡高达到50m及以上时,边坡高而缓,剪出口较低,失效概率较大,其中河流下切深,有N2泥岩出露的极高边坡,稳定性最差。Duncan法求解的稳定系数略小于Monte-Carlo法求得的结果,而前者求解的失效概率略大于后者,两种方法计算结果较为接近。由于Duncan法理论简单,计算量小,更宜于在实际工程中应用。     

基于三角模糊数随机模拟的地下水环境系统综合风险评价模型

采用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及函数间运算简化为普通的实数之间运算,建立基于三角模糊数随机模拟的地下水环境系统综合风险评价模型(ARA-SSTFN)。结果说明:以置信区间形式表示的ARA-SSTFN评价结果,比现有常规方法结果提供评价结果可靠性方面更多信息,能反映受多种不确定性因素综合影响的地下水环境系统综合风险评价客观实际情况;ARA-SSTFN在流域水资源、水环境和水旱灾害等有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性因素综合作用的各种资源环境系统综合风险评价问题中有推广应用价值。     

库水位波动条件下万州瓦窑坪滑坡稳定性分析

库水位波动对滑坡的稳定性变化有重要影响,传统的定值分析方法未能考虑土体强度参数取值的不定性,而概率分析法能考虑土体强度参数分布的随机性,对库区滑坡的稳定性分析提供了更有力的依据。文章以万州瓦窑坪滑坡为例,在基于库水位实际波动进行拟合的条件下对滑坡的渗流场进行了模拟,同时对不同水位下滑坡的稳定性和破坏概率进行了分析。结果表明,滑坡在库水位波动条件下整体稳定性系数均大于1,处于基本稳定状态,滑坡具有低危险性。库水位下降到160.47 m水位时,边坡破坏概率超过30%,具有中等危险性。采用R/S分析法对监测数据进行分析,结果表明滑坡具有持续性的小变形,滑坡处于基本稳定状态,与稳定性分析结果一致。     

鸡西盆地构造演化及煤层气资源量概率分布

鸡西盆地是松辽盆地外围东部勘探的重要目标区之一。早白垩世发育有多套煤系地层, 且分布面积广, 储量丰富, 是重要的烃源岩。本文在研究鸡西盆地地质构造特征的基础上, 恢复了鸡D1井区沉降史。沉降史曲线反映出该盆地经历了早期的快速断陷沉降, 但其间发生过三次短期抬升与剥蚀。从下白垩统上部猴石沟组沉积开始, 盆地进入了相对稳定沉降时期。海浪组沉积之后, 本地区发生了较长时间(约28 Ma) 的抬升与剥蚀, 而这一时期是鸡西盆地演化史上一次主要的构造变动期, 是盆地基本构造格局的形成期。根据早期的强烈快速断陷阶段形成的煤系相关参数并运用蒙特卡罗法计算的煤层气资源量在0.1、0.5、0.9的概率下分别为81.7 ×1011 m3、5.36 ×1011 m3、2.41 ×1011 m3。