地震海洋学研究进展

传统船舶调查获取海洋水体温盐资料的方法在水平方向上分辨率较低,而用反射地震探测海洋水体特性的方法--地震海洋学,能有效提高海水温盐资料在水平方向上的分辨率.概述了近5年来地震海洋学的发展过程,重点介绍了地震海洋学方法在海洋锋面观测、水团边界划分、海洋内波分析、中尺度涡旋等方面的研究成果,以及AVO、全波形反演等反射地震处理方法在海洋水体特性研究中的应用.比较了地震海洋学方法与声层析技术、高频声技术等声学方法应用于海洋水体特性研究的异同.并展望了下一步研究工作的重点:①有关地震反射剖面的各种参数与海洋水体温盐结构物理模型的联系及其定量分析;②以研究海洋水体特性为目标的地震反射剖面的处理方法;③海洋地震调查历史数据的应用.     

由环境应力值寻找地震危险区的尝试

作者根据位错理论,采用二维矩形破裂模式,在导出了平均震源速度谱的基础上,导出了用地震波计算环境剪应力τ_0的公式。计算了1987—1991年中国和邻区大约1000多次4级以上中强地震的环境剪应力值τ_0,并把τ_0≥10MPa的地震看作是高剪应力值地震。自1987—1991年5年内,我国及邻区共发生M_s≥6.0的强震45次,和160余次高剪应力中强地震(M=4.0-5.0,τ_0≥10MPa),大约有1/4的强震和1/3的高应力值地震发生在台湾地区。说明台湾地区是一个高地震活动区和高应力值地区。新疆的喀什—乌恰—乌什地区也是高地震活动区和高应力值地区。我们对发生在其地区的强震,向前追溯了环境应力值τ_0的变化。发现有11个强震事件(约占全部事件80%)在震前1—5年内,在以强震为圆心,半径为200km范围内(个别略远),均有1—2个或多个高应力值地震出现。说明当高应力值地震发生时,该地区环境应力在增高,它可以作为将要发生强震的前兆。据此,推测了今后3年内大陆强震发生的可能地区是:①中印缅三国边境地区;②西藏波密地区;③青海北部到宁夏北部地区;④新疆伊宁地区;⑤纵贯新青藏90°E±2°线地带;⑥晋北忻州地区;⑦苏北及黄海地区;⑧山东长岛地区。     

福建气象综合业务平台融入“天擎”技术方案设计及实现

为加快推进福建省气象业务系统的集约化、云化转型,需要依托福建气象大数据云平台(“天擎·福建”)对业务系统进行融入改造。本文介绍了“天擎·福建”的概况、总体架构和功能,重点阐述了福建气象综合业务平台融入“天擎”的技术方案及实现方法,从平台融入“天擎”、数据源切换至“天擎”、算法纳入加工流水线、数据产品存入“天擎”、系统监控进“天镜”、前端页面改造等6个方面实现了应用融入并投入业务运行,融入后综合业务平台的数据汇聚、加工和服务全流程进一步优化和规范,系统运行效率和访问速度显著提高,为其他的业务系统融入天擎提供借鉴。     

珠江口二类水体水色三要素的优化反演

根据2003年1月份珠江口实测资料获得了适合该海域的相关参数,建立了适用于该海域的二类水体水色三要素优化反演模型,同步优化反演得到了与2003年1月25～26日实测站点相对应的2003年1月29日的SeaWiFs图像像元点的水色三要素,反演与实测水色三要素的平均相对误差分别为：叶绿素14．9％,悬浮泥沙12．1％,黄色物质13．6％。研究结果说明本研究建立的优化反演模型比较适用于珠江口二类水体水色三要素的反演,且具有较高的反演精度。     

线性向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型最小二乘估计的比较

研究了最小二乘准则下线性向量半参数模型的核估计、近邻估计及样条估计3种估计方法,分析了向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型在这几种估计方法中的差异。     

Assimilation of ASAR data with a hydrologic and semi-empirical backscattering coupled model to estimate soil moisture

The most promising approach for studying soil moisture is the assimilation of observation data and computational modeling.However,there is much uncertainty in the assimilation process,which affects the assimilation results.This research developed a one-dimensional soil moisture assimilation scheme based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF)and Genetic Algorithm(GA).A two-dimensional hydrologic model-Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model(DHSVM)was coupled with a semi-empirical backscattering model(Oh).The Advanced Synthetic Apertture Radar(ASAR)data were assimilated with this coupled model and the field observation data were used to validate this scheme in the soil moisture assimilation experiment.In order to improve the assimilation results,a cost function was set up based on the distance between the simulated backscattering coefficient from the coupled model and the observed backscattering coefficient from ASAR.The EnKF and GA were used to re-initialize and re-parameterize the simulation process,respectively.The assimilation results were compared with the free-run simulations from hydrologic model and the field observation data.The results obtained indicate that this assimilation scheme is practical and it can improve the accuracy of soil moisture estimation significantly.     

Numerical study on the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current

A 1.5-layer reduced-gravity model forced by wind stress is used to study the bifurcations of the North Equatorial Current(NEC).The authors found that after removing the Ekman drift,the modelled circulations can serve well as a proxy of the SODA circulations on the σθ=25.0 kg m～-3 potential density surface based on available long-term reanalysis wind stress data.The modelled results show that the location of the western boundary bifurcation of the NEC depends on both zonal averaged and local zero wind stress curl latitude.The effects of the anomalous wind stress curl added in different areas are also investigated and it is found that they can change the strength of the Mindanao Eddy(ME),and then influence the interior pathway.     

Probability Distribution of the Hull Motion and Mooring Line Tension of Two Floating Systems

The statistical and distribution characteristics of the responses of a floater and its mooring lines are essential in designing floating/mooring systems.In general,the dynamic responses of offshore structures obey a Gaussian distribution,assuming that the structural system,and sea loads are linear or weakly nonlinear.However,mooring systems and wave loads are considerably nonlinear,and the dynamic responses of hull/mooring systems are non-Gaussian.In this study,the dynamic responses of two types of floaters,semi-submersible and spar platforms,and their mooring lines are computed using coupled dynamic analysis in the time domain.Herein,the statistical characteristics and distributions of the hull motion and mooring line tension are discussed and compared.The statistical distributions of the dynamic responses have strong non-Gaussianity and are unreasonably fitted by a Gaussian distribution for the two floating and mooring systems.Then,the effects of water depth,wave parameters,and low-frequency and wave-frequency components on the non-Gaussianity of the hull motion,and mooring line tension are investigated and discussed.A comparison of the statistical distributions of the responses with various probability density functions,including the Gamma,Gaussian,General Extreme Value,Weibull,and Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM)distributions,shows that the GMM distribution is better than the others for characterizing the statistical distributions of the hull motion,and mooring line tension responses.Furthermore,the GMM distribution has the best accuracy of response prediction.     

参数调整对气象预测的B-P网络模型性能的影响

为了探索ＢＰ网络的参数调整特性,进行了参数α、β的选取对ＢＰ算法的收敛速度和模型的稳定性的影响研究。通过ＢＰ网络用于气象预测建模的参数调整个例分析表明：参数α、β的取值对ＢＰ模型的稳定性无显著影响,但参数值的调整尤其是β值的调整对建模的收敛速度有明显的影响。     

地震断层气监测的现状与展望

断层气测量是地震科学研究的重要方法之一，断层气测量具有实用、轻便、快便、价廉等优点，在地震监测预报和减灾活动中具有广阔的应用前景和巨大的潜力。本文对断层气测量在地震科学中的应用和现状作了简要的介绍，同时探讨了我国地震断层气监测系统中存在的一些主要问题，对今后的发展进行了展望。最后简单介绍了几种断层气监测新技术及新型气敏传感器。