Estimation of pH optima and tolerances of diatoms in lake sediments by the methods of weighted averaging,least squares and maximum likelihood,and their use for the prediction of lake acidity

Ecological optima and tolerances with respect to autumn pH were estimated for 63 diatom taxa in 47 Finnish lakes. The methods used were weighted averaging (WA), least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML), the two latter methods assuming the Gaussian response model.WA produces optimum estimates which are necessarily within the observed lake pH range, whereas there is no such restriction in ML and LS. When the most extreme estimates of ML and LS were excluded, a reasonably close agreement among the results of different estimation methods was observed. When the species with unrealistic optima were excluded, the tolerance estimates were also rather similar, although the ML estimates were systematically greater.The parameter estimates were used to predict the autumn pH of 34 other lakes by weighted averaging. The ML and LS estimates including the extreme optima produced inferior predictions. A good prediction was obtained, however, when prediction with these estimates was additionally scaled with inverse squared tolerances, or when the extreme values were removed (censored). Tolerance downweighting was perhaps more efficient, and when it was used, no additional improvement was gained by censoring. The WA estimates produced good predictions without any manipulations, but these predictions tended to be biased towards the centroid of the observed range of pH values.At best, the average bias in prediction, as measured by mean difference between predicted and observed pH, was 0.082 pH units and the standard deviation of the differences, measuring the average random prediction error, was 0.256 pH units.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Geographic Software Reviewed in this article: THE DIFFUSION GAME . Christopher J. Lovelock and Charles B. Weinberg . MAPIT . Raymond J. Kalush , Jr . SIMODEL . Peter A. Williams and A. Stewart Fotheringham . WEATHER FRONTS . P. C. Moyer . WORLD DYNAMICS . Mark Lewis Baldwin     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Air–Sea Exchange due to Calcium Carbonate and Organic Matter Storage,and its Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle

Release of CO₂ from surface ocean water owing to precipitation of CaCO₃ and the imbalance between biological production of organic matter and its respiration, and their net removal from surface water to sedimentary storage was studied by means of a quotient θ = (CO₂ flux to the atmosphere)/(CaCO₃ precipitated). θ depends not only on water temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration but also on the CaCO₃ and organic carbon masses formed. In CO₂ generation by CaCO₃ precipitation, θ varies from a fraction of 0.44 to 0.79, increasing with decreasing temperature (25 to 5°C), increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration (195–375 ppmv), and increasing CaCO₃ precipitated mass (up to 45% of the initial DIC concentration in surface water). Primary production and net storage of organic carbon counteracts the CO₂ production by carbonate precipitation and it results in lower CO₂ emissions from the surface layer. When atmospheric CO₂ increases due to the ocean-to-atmosphere flux rather than remaining constant, the amount of CO₂ transferred is a non-linear function of the surface layer thickness because of the back-pressure of the rising atmospheric CO₂. For a surface ocean layer approximated by a 50-m-thick euphotic zone that receives input of inorganic and organic carbon from land, the calculated CO₂ flux to the atmosphere is a function of the CaCO₃ and C_org net storage rates. In general, the carbonate storage rate has been greater than that of organic carbon. The CO₂ flux near the Last Glacial Maximum is 17 to 7×10¹² mol/yr (0.2–0.08 Gt C/yr), reflecting the range of organic carbon storage rates in sediments, and for pre-industrial time it is 38–42×10¹² mol/yr (0.46–0.50 Gt C/yr). Within the imbalanced global carbon cycle, our estimates indicate that prior to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ to the atmosphere the land organic reservoir was gaining carbon and the surface ocean was losing carbon, calcium, and total alkalinity owing to the CaCO₃ storage and consequent emission of CO₂. These results are in agreement with the conclusions of a number of other investigators. As the CO₂ uptake in mineral weathering is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, the CO₂ weathering pathway that originates in the CO₂ produced by remineralization of soil humus rather than by direct uptake from the atmosphere may reduce the relatively large imbalances of the atmosphere and land organic reservoir at 10²–10⁴-year time scales.     

北京夏季日最大电力负荷预报模型建立方法探讨

为了探索夏季(6～8月)日气象负荷的最佳分离方式和引起日最大电力负荷波动的主要因子,以及建立预报模型最佳个数,基于北京市2005～2010年逐日最大电力负荷和同期的气象资料,分析了北京地区日最大电力负荷的变化规律,采用不同方法将气象负荷从夏季日最大电力负荷中分离出来,分析北京夏季气象负荷与气温、相对湿度、降水及炎热指数、高温持续日数、炎热日数持续时间、前一日气象负荷等因子之间的关系,并基于2005～2009年夏季逐日气象负荷和其主要影响因子采用逐步回归方法建立日最大电力负荷的预报模型,将2010年夏季北京日最大电力负荷作为预报效果的独立样本检验。结果显示:2005～2010年,北京逐日最大电力负荷具有明显的线性增长趋势,夏季日最大电力负荷具有显著的星期效应;与去掉逐年夏季日最大电力负荷趋势和夏季平均日最大电力负荷趋势相比,去掉全年逐日最大电力负荷变化趋势的夏季日气象负荷预报模型的拟合能力更优;北京夏季日气象负荷与当日气温的相关系数最高,与前一日气象负荷也关系密切;利用前一日相对气象负荷和当日气象要素一周逐日分别建立预报模型的拟合和预测效果较好。     

近46年来华东及周围地区最高与最低气温时空演变的气候特征

选用华东及周围地区157个气象观测站1960-2005年6~8月逐日最高、 最低气温资料, 利用分段线性突变检验、 EOF分解等方法, 分析了我国华东地区最高, 最低气温的空间分布及时间演变特征。结果表明： 高温主要出现在长江以南; 长江以北夏季气温分布受地形影响显著。最高气温分布具有良好的空间一致性, 主要受大尺度天气系统影响; 最低气温更多表现出局地变化特征; 华东夏季最高、 最低气温分布形态较为类似, 有“全区一致型”和“南北反向型”两种, 1980年是夏季气温的一个突变点。1980年以前, 最高、 最低气温都呈下降趋势; 1980年以后则呈升温趋势; 最高气温的演变以“高温-低温-高温”的年代际振荡为主, 极端高温主要发生在两个时段： 第一次在1960-1965年之间; 第二次在2000年以后, 而极端最低气温以升温趋势为主。     

COMPRESSION OF nth-ORDER DATA ARRAYS BY B-SPLINES.PART 1:THEORY

For efficient handling of very large data arrays,pretreatment by compression is mandatory.In the presentpaper B-spline methods are described as good candidates for such data array compression.Themathematical relation between the maximum entropy method for compression of data tables andthe B-spline of zeroth degree is described together with the generalization of B-spline compression tonth-order data array tables in matrix and tensor algebra.     

A study on the limit void ratio characteristics of medium to fine mixed graded sands

The minimum and maximum void ratios, corresponding to states of densest and loosest packing, of 111 systematically prepared mixed graded sand samples are determined with Method 2A and Method B according to ASTM D 4253 and ASTM D 4254 standards, respectively. Although, those standards are applicable to soils that may contain up to at most 15% fines content, for the harmony of the results even for samples having fines content greater 15%, no other methods are used throughout the experimental program. The test results show that 3rd degree polynomial equations derived from existing experimental data, as a function of packing material percentage, are quite reasonable (R² ≈ 1.0) to estimate the variation of minimum and maximum void ratios for the sands considered. Furthermore, error analysis of the limit void ratios is also carried out. It is found that predictability of maximum void ratio for the soil types and gradations considered is more accurate than that of minimum void ratio.