东亚季风气候对Heinrich2事件的响应:来自石笋的高分辨率记录

据湖北省神农架天鹅洞一支石笋11个230Th年龄和254个δ18O数据,建立了28.5～22.0kaB.P.同位素分辨率平均约30a的东亚季风气候变化序列。该石笋δ18O曲线与南京葫芦洞石笋记录在重叠时段基本一致,说明本区石笋δ18O反映了区域性东亚季风经向环流特征。在24.3kaB.P.左右,石笋δ18O明显正偏,持续时间近1ka,指示一次显著的弱夏季风事件,与北大西洋倒数第二次冰漂碎屑事件(Heinrich2)同步发生,可视为东亚季风气候对H2事件的响应。高分辨率的δ18O序列揭示了H2事件的内部结构特征:(1)事件发生的突变性,石笋δ18O记录指示事件发生时在100a内δ18O从-8.59‰迅速正偏为-6.75‰,振幅达1.84‰;(2)事件结束的渐变性,δ18O正偏到-6.75‰后便以阶梯状缓慢负偏到-8.86‰至事件结束,持续时间近900a。这一过程与末次盛冰期东亚季风气候H1事件表现的季风强弱转换方式基本一致,说明末次盛冰期东亚季风气候H型事件具有共同的内部结构特征。研究表明,末次盛冰期东亚季风气候H事件的突变可能受北大西洋驱动并经青藏高原冰川变化放大。     

顾及有色噪声的自适应粒子滤波UWB定位算法

传统卡尔曼滤波算法要求噪声模型符合高斯分布,在UWB室内定位中,由于载体本身的机制等干扰,观测噪声不仅仅是白噪声,也存在有色噪声的情况,而粒子滤波可以处理有色噪声的问题。本文通过增加似然分布自适应调整来改进粒子滤波用于目标跟踪的精度,同时研究在白噪声、有色噪声下似然分布自适应调整粒子滤波和拓展卡尔曼滤波在UWB中的优势与不同。试验结果表明：观测噪声为白噪声时,拓展卡尔曼滤波和粒子滤波均可以较好地实现对行人的定位跟踪;观测噪声为有色噪声时,自适应粒子滤波定位效果优于粒子滤波、拓展卡尔曼滤波。     

Current-induced scour beneath initially elevated subsea pipelines

When a subsea pipeline is laid on an uneven seabed, certain sections may have an initial elevation with respect to the far-field seabed, e_o, and thus potentially affecting the on-bottom stability of the pipeline. This paper focuses on quantifying the effects of the upstream dimensionless seabed shear stress, θ_∞, and Reynolds number, Re, on: (1) the maximum dimensionless seabed shear stress beneath the pipe, θ_max, to be compared to the critical shear stress in order to determine whether scour would occur and progress towards an equilibrium state; and, (2) the dimensionless equilibrium scour depth beneath the pipe, S_eq/D. Using a 2-D Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach along with the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, a parametric study involving 243 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations was conducted. The simulation results were used to develop a closed-form equation for the prediction of θ_max. Subsequently, experimental measurements of S_eq/D have been compiled from published literature, to develop a new closed-form equation for the prediction of S_eq/D with a high correlation to the experimental data. In summary, we present two closed-form equations for the prediction of θ_max and S_eq/D for pipelines with an initial e_o/D, which are applicable for both clear-water and live-bed conditions. The effects of θ_∞ and Re have been included, albeit Re having a small influence as compared to the other parameters.     

一种优化模糊度搜索方法的研究

对于高精度测量和导航,GPS载波相位整周模糊度的快速求解仍然是一个难点,尤其对于单频接收机。提出一种快速求解整周模糊度的方法,其基本思想采用分步求解,首先应用最小二乘模糊去耦调节法(LAMBDA)搜索出来的模糊度作为初始值,然后应用卫星分组方法降低搜索维数,并应用极大似然准则,构造搜索函数,最后应用最优化原理,搜索出最优的模糊度参数,并从三个方面对其进行检验,即RATIO检验,OVT检验,多项式拟合残差检验。为验证该算法,我们用单频GPS接收机进行了实验,利用本文方法在11 S以内正确确定了模糊度,其基线长误差小于3MM,表明该方法不但可以改进模糊度的搜索速度,而且可以进一步提高其可靠性和成功率。该方法可广泛应用于定向及姿态测量。     

Introducing a transferable fishing day management regime for Pacific Island countries

On 1 December 2007, eight ‘Small Island Developing States’ in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean implemented a management regime restricting the total number of days fished by tuna purse seine vessels within their waters, commonly referred to as the Vessel Day Scheme (VDS). The VDS is seen as one component of management arrangements to reduce fishing mortality on bigeye and yellowfin tuna, constrain fishing effort, and increase the rate of return from access fees by Distant Water Fishing Nations.     

川东南长宁地区地震活动及b值演化特征

利用全国统一目录和流动台站目录,研究了四川盆地东南部长宁地区的地震活动特征和b值的空间分布特征.研究结果显示,长宁地区的地震活动在时间上呈现明显的分段特征,地震活动在2015年后明显增强;在空间上,长宁地区的地震活动主要集中在以28.3°N为界限的南、北2个地区,对于这2个区域的b值演化,计算结果显示出不同的分段特征....     

Holocene alpine glaciation inferred from lacustrine sediments on northeastern Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

With accelerated melting of alpine glaciers, understanding the future state of the cryosphere is critical. Because the observational record of glacier response to climate change is short, palaeo‐records of glacier change are needed. Using proglacial lake sediments, which contain continuous and datable records of past glacier activity, we investigate Holocene glacier fluctuations on northeastern Baffin Island. Basal radiocarbon ages from three lakes constrain Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat by ca. 10.5 ka. High sedimentation rates (0.03 cm a^?1) and continuous minerogenic sedimentation throughout the Holocene in proglacial lakes, in contrast to organic‐rich sediments and low sedimentation rates (0.005 cm a^?1) in neighbouring non‐glacial lakes, suggest that glaciers may have persisted in proglacial lake catchments since regional deglaciation. The presence of varves and relatively high magnetic susceptibility from 10 to 6 ka and since 2 ka in one proglacial lake suggest minimum Holocene glacier extent ca. 6–2 ka. Moraine evidence and proglacial and threshold lake sediments indicate that the maximum Holocene glacier extent occurred during the Little Ice Age. The finding that glaciers likely persisted through the Holocene is surprising, given that regional proxy records reveal summer temperatures several degrees warmer than today, and may be due to shorter ablation seasons and greater accumulation‐season precipitation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.     

重磁解释中健全的极大似然法及三维反演

本文介绍了JOAO.B.C.SILVA提出的重磁解释中健全的(Robust)极大似然反演方法的基本原理,讨论了重力二度体非线性几何参数的反演情况,并将该方法扩展到三维重、磁非线性几何参数反演中。重点讨论了场值中有较大随机干扰、有不同类型的地质噪音源影响下的反演结果。理论反演结果表明,该方法有比最小二乘反演方法更接近实际的解,从而提高了解的可靠性,对于重磁局部异常或孤立异常有较好的反演效果。