Response of low‐angle dunes to variable flow

Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough.     

Weakness and mechanical anisotropy of phyllosilicate-rich cataclasites developed after mylonites of a low-angle normal fault (Simplon Line,Western Alps)

The Simplon Fault Zone is a late-collisional low-angle normal fault (LANF) of the Western Alps. The hanging wall shows evidence of brittle deformation only, while the footwall is characterized by a c. 1 km-thick shear zone (the Simplon Fault Zone), which continuously evolved, during exhumation and cooling, from amphibolite facies conditions to brittle-cataclastic deformations. Due to progressive localization of the active section of the shear zone, the thermal-rheological evolution of the footwall resulted in a layered structure, with higher temperature mylonites preserved at the periphery of the shear zone, and cataclasites occurring at the core (indicated as the Simplon Line). In order to investigate the weakness of the Simplon Line, we studied the evolution of brittle/cataclastic fault rocks, from nucleation to the most mature ones. Cataclasites are superposed on greenschist facies mylonites, and their nucleation can be studied at the periphery of the brittle fault zone. This is characterized by fractures, micro-faults and foliated ultracataclasite seams that develop along the mylonitic SCC′ fabric, exploiting the weak phases mainly represented by muscovite and chlorite. Approaching the fault core, both the thickness and frequency of cataclasite horizons increase, and, as their thickness increases, they become less and less foliated. The fault core itself is represented by a thicker non-foliated cataclasite horizon. No Andersonian faults or fractures can be found in the footwall damage zone and core zone, whilst they are present in the hanging wall and in the footwall further from the fault. Applying a stress model based on slip tendency, we have been able to calculate that the friction coefficient of the Simplon Line cataclasites was <0.25, hence this fault zone is absolutely weak. In contrast with other fault zones, the weakening effect of fluids was of secondary importance, since they accessed the fault zone only after an interconnected fracture network developed exploiting the cataclasite network.     

Smoothing and re-roughening processes: The geometric evolution of a single fault zone

The geometry of a fault zone exerts a major control on earthquake rupture processes and source parameters. Observations previously compiled from multiple faults suggest that fault surface shape evolves with displacement, but the specific processes driving the evolution of fault geometry within a single fault zone are not well understood. Here, we characterize the deformation history and geometry of an extraordinarily well-exposed fault using maps of cross-sectional exposures constructed with the Structure from Motion photogrammetric method. The La Quinta Fault, located in southern California, experienced at least three phases of deformation. Multiple layers of ultracataclasite formed during the most recent phase. Crosscutting relations between the layers define the evolution of the structures and demonstrate that new layers formed successively during the deformation history. Wear processes such as grain plucking from one layer into a younger layer and truncation of asperities at layer edges indicate that the layers were slip zones and the contacts between them slip surfaces. Slip surfaces that were not reactivated or modified after they were abandoned exhibit self-affine geometry, preserving the fault roughness from different stages of faulting. Roughness varies little between surfaces, except the last slip zone to form in the fault, which is the smoothest. This layer contains a distinct mineral assemblage, indicating that the composition of the fault rock exerts a control on roughness. In contrast, the similar roughness of the older slip zones, which have comparable mineralogy but clearly crosscut one another, suggests that as the fault matured the roughness of the active slip surface stayed approximately constant. Wear processes affected these layers, so for roughness to stay constant the roughening and smoothing effects of fault slip must have been approximately balanced. These observations suggest fault surface evolution occurs by nucleation of new surfaces and wear by competing smoothing and re-roughening processes.     

2012/2013年冬季中国气温异常成因分析

2012/2013年冬季,我国平均气温为-3.8℃,较常年同期(-3.4℃)偏低0.4℃,就空间分布来看,我国东北、华北、黄淮、江淮和新疆北部气温较常年同期偏低。利用1951-2013年国家气候中心整理的全国160站月平均气温资料、英国Hadley中心全球海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料、德国不莱梅大学提供的海冰卫星遥感资料,通过EOF分析、回归分析、合成分析、相关分析方法研究了引起2012/2013年冬季我国气温异常的东亚中高纬大气环流异常,并从海洋环境要素异常的角度分析造成这种环流异常的原因。分析结果表明:2012/2013年冬季我国气温异常分布主要是由于北极涛动(AO,Arctic Oscillation)呈负位相,西伯利亚地区高度场异常偏高,东亚大槽明显偏深的环流形式引起的。而太平洋年代际振荡(PDO,Pacific Decadal Oscillation)负位相是引起西伯利亚高压强度偏强和东亚冬季风强度偏强的年代际海洋背景,前期9月海冰范围异常偏小是导致2012/2013年冬季AO呈现负位相及我国东北和新疆北部呈现异常低温的主要原因。     

Development of a new method for efficiently calculating of evaporation from the phreatic aquifer in variably saturated flow modeling

In this paper, we proposed a new method that has been developed based on the surface soil moisture content (SSMC) to more efficiently calculate the groundwater evaporation in variably saturated flow modeling. In this method, the empirical formula to calculate evaporation was modified and the value of the formula varies from zero to one as a closed interval. In addition, the simulation code for calculating the groundwater evaporation based on the SSMC method was incorporated into the EOS9 module of Tough2, a variably saturated flow modeling code. Finally, two numerical tests and a case simulation were conducted to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the SSMC method. Simulation results indicate that the SSMC method is capable of appropriately simulating the characteristics of water flow in vadose zone and the amount of evaporation with the variable water table. And such results are in coincidence with the value calculated by the logistic function method, and fit well with the measured data globally rather than locally.     

北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨之间的关系

本文通过对中国地区实测降水及北极海冰卫星数据的分析,研究了北极秋季海冰密集度与中国初冬降雨的关系。合成分析的研究结果表明2000年之前中国南方和北方冬季降水偏少,中部降水偏多,这之后中国南方和北方冬季降水增加,中部降水减少。SVD研究结果显示,北极海冰减少使得近三十年来中国南方和北方冬季降雨呈现逐渐增多,中部地区(从青藏高原向东北方向至日本)降雨逐步减少的趋势。随着北极海冰的进一步减少,如遇合适的气候条件,南方冻雨出现的概率会加大。北极秋季海冰异常的回复过程加之冬季海冰异常的延续信号在中国、蒙古及日本北部激发一个阻塞高压,以巴伦支海/卡拉海为中心激发一个异常低压。这使得来自北冰洋大西洋扇区的冷空气南下至欧洲大陆和亚洲北部,在阻塞高压的影响下,冷空气进一步南下,进入东亚地区。这不仅使得亚洲冬季温度降低,也为中国北部降水增加提供条件。     

Formation of low permeability reservoirs and gas accumulation process in the Daniudi Gas Field,Northeast Ordos Basin,China

The Daniudi Gas Field is a typical large-scale coal-generated wet gas field located in the northeastern Ordos Basin that contains multiple Upper Paleozoic gas-bearing layers and considerable reserves of gas. Based on integrated analysis of reservoir petrology, carbonate cement C–O isotope, geochemistry of source rocks and HC gas and numerical basin modeling, a comprehensive study focusing on the formation of low permeability reservoirs and gas generation process uncovers a different gas accumulation scene in Daniudi Gas Field. The gas accumulation discovered was controlled by the reservoir permeability reduction and gas generation process, and can be divided into two distinct stages by the low permeability reservoir formation time: before the low permeability reservoir formation, the less matured gas was driven by buoyancy, migrated laterally towards NE and then accumulated in NE favorable traps during Late Triassic to early Early Cretaceous; after the low permeability reservoir formation, highly matured gas was driven by excessive pressure, migrated vertically and accumulated in-situ or near the gas-generating centers during early to late Early Cretaceous. The coupling relationship between reservoir diagenetic evolution and gas generation process controlled on gas accumulation of the Daniudi Gas Field. This study will aid in understanding the gas accumulation process and planning further E&D of the Upper Paleozoic super-imposed gas layers in the whole Ordos Basin and other similar super-imposed low permeability gas layer basins.     

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

冰上丝绸之路与北极油气资源

油气是重要的战略资源。其中天然气作为清洁能源,它曾经是,现在是,在可预期的未来——全球碳减排、中国碳达峰情景下,仍然是最重要的能源资源。能源进口渠道的多元化一直是中国缓解能源紧张的有效措施之一。北极地区油气资源丰富且以天然气为主,已发现的油气资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,尤其是天然气。但是俄罗斯天然气生产的油气田80%以上已经进入北极圈。2012年,中俄合作开发北极亚马尔液化天然气项目正式启动,标志着中国参与北极油气资源开发利用取得重要进展,也事实上开启了中国主导的"丝绸之路经济带建设"和俄罗斯主导的"欧亚经济联盟建设"对接合作的进程。北极地区已发现的油气资源共计3289.4亿桶油当量,其中石油605.4亿桶（84.1亿吨）油当量,仅为全球已发现石油资源的2.5%;天然气41.4万亿立方米（约合2683亿桶,372.6亿吨油当量）,占全球已发现天然气资源的15.5%。北极地区已发现的油气总资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,俄罗斯已发现的北极油气资源合计2905亿桶油当量（403.5亿吨）,占88.3%;其中天然气约39.47万亿立方米,约合2557.9亿桶（355.3亿吨）油当量,占北极地区已发现天然气总资源的95%以上。北极待发现的油气资源量也非常可观,约占世界待发现常规石油资源的15%;天然气占世界待发现常规天然气资源的30%,其分布也主要在俄罗斯。随着全球气候变暖和能源战略博弈,俄罗斯为确保其天然气出口及财政来源,必然要加大北极油气、特别是天然气的开采和开发,并通过北极航道运到中国和其他消费国。本文在概括分析北极油气资源分布特点、俄罗斯油气资源与北极战略及北方海航道通行能力的基础上,回顾了北极亚马尔液化天然气项目诞生、发展演变及其国际博弈的背景;概括介绍了中国成功介入北极油气资源项目这一标志性事件过程,并进一步提出了中国对北极油气资源利用战略举措的建议。      

Polar WRF模式海冰密集度方案对北极海雾模拟效果的个例研究

全球变暖的背景下,北极航线的常规通航甚至商业运营有望实现,而海雾会严重影响航道上船只的航行安全。海冰的存在使海气之间相互作用变得更为复杂,是研究北极海雾不可忽略的因素。船载观测发现,与中纬度常见平流冷却雾形成时气温下降速度往往超过海水降温速度不同,北极海雾发生时海冰的存在还会使海水降温速度超过空气降温速度。然而目前海冰分布是否会影响模式模拟海雾的准确性还不得而知,因此本文利用Polar WRF（Polar Weather Research and Forecasting）模式模拟了中国第七次北极考察中观测到的一次海雾过程,并进行海冰密集度敏感性试验。通过与船载观测和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据比对发现,在低浮冰区内（海冰密集度小于50%）考虑海冰分布时可以更加准确地刻画潜热通量与水汽通量,模拟出与观测事实相符的表层空气降温与增湿过程以及相对湿度的变化,因此能够更好地刻画海雾的三维结构及其生消演变。