大地形变监测预报在中国西部防震减灾事业中的基础作用

本文以巩固和发挥大地形变地震监测预报基础地位和作用、积极推进中国西部防震减灾事业可持续性和协调性发展为主旨,回顾了西部地区20世纪70年代初至“九五”前期大地形变监测与地震预测研究工作基础,介绍了“九五”后期至今大地形变监测与地震预测研究的主要进展,并对该领域发展中所面临的一些问题进行了初步探讨。     

昆仑Ms 8.1地震前青藏块体北、东缘水平运动变形的关联特征

青藏块体东北缘和川滇GPS监测区1991(1993)、1999和2001年高精度GPS观测资料揭示：2001年11月14日昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体北、东缘构造区域水平运动变形场动态演变具有一定的关联性特征。即：在继承性运动总体背景下，临近大震发生时两区域运动强度同步减弱且变形状态发生变化。结合地质构造分析研究认为，昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体边界运动变形的关联性变化与大震孕育后期大范围应力应变快速积累所形成的扰动应力场有关；随着块体内部大震的发生、应变能的大量释放和构造应力场的调整，可能会促使块体边界地带具有较高应变积累的相关构造部位(尤其是未被历史强震破裂贯通的地带)的应力应变的进一步积累或破裂释放。     

Numerical simulation for 1975 Haicheng and 1999 Xiuyan earthquake processes by DDA+FEM

Introduction The Xiuyan earthquake(MS=5.4)on Nov.29,1999,occurred between Hushan town and Pi-anling town at the southeast end of the aftershocks of Haicheng earthquake(MS=7.3).These two earthquakes′sequences are highly similar in the way that the foreshocks are very frequent,focal mechanisms of the main shocks are about the same and fault strikes are approximately in the same direction.It is important to study these earthquakes for further research on seismogenesis to fore-cast earthquake…     

A new approach of single epoch GPS posi- tioning for landslide monitoring

Introduction China is a country with many landslides and debris flows. These disasters bring out a large amount of losses of life and property. It is significant to predict landslide incident by monitoring the deformations of these landslides. At past, triangulation and trilateration are traditional tools, but it is very difficult for them to realize real-time monitoring, and it is more dangerous for obser- vation workers when the deformation becomes larger. Because of many advantages such as…     

Dike intrusion associated with the 2000 eruption of Miyakejima Volcano, Japan

The model for the 2000 dike intrusion event between Kozushima and Miyakejima volcano, Japan, was reinvestigated. After the sudden earthquake swarm in Miyakejima volcano, a dike intrusion of large volume was detected by the nationwide GPS network (Geonet). The displacements detected with GPS stations over an area with a radius of about 200 km shows a distribution that is consistent with the dike source being located near Miyakejima volcano.The dike was intruded northwestwards between Miyakejima and the neighboring Kozushima volcano. We searched for the parameters in the models that reproduce the regional displacements due to dike intrusion between Miyakejima and Kozushiima islands. We tested three models, (1) the model with a single dike, (2) the model with a dike and a point dislocation source which represents a creep dislocation source and (3) the model with a dike and a deflation source which represents a magma reservoir. Though all three models can match the horizontal displacements near the source area, model 1 fails to reproduce the regional displacements in the central part of Japan. Both models 2 and 3 can reproduce the regional displacement for horizontal components. Model 3 produces slightly better results than model 2 for vertical components. The balance in the volume budget for models 2 and 3 is also consistent with the observations. These results show that we cannot distinguish between the two models using only GPS observation. As there is no direct evidence for such a large creep or ductile source (corresponds to M7 or more) as proposed in model 2 and the active seismic region migrated back and forth within the linear swarm region, the model with a dike and a deep magma source is preferable. For the deflation point source, we obtained a deflation volume of 1.5 km³ at the depth of 20 km below the dike. An additional ~0.95 km³ of volume loss through caldera collapse and edifice deflation took place at Miyakejima. We conclude that the magma that intruded the dike came in part from below Miyakejima and in part from below the sea floor between Miyakejima and Kozushima, perhaps from reservoirs at the Moho.Editorial responsibility: S Nakada, T Druitt     

Ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano (Greece) for the period 1995–2002: Results from DInSAR and DGPS observations

Differential GPS (DGPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) analyses were applied to the Kos-Yali-Nisyros Volcanic Field (SE Hellenic Volcanic Arc) to quantify the ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano. After intense seismic activity in 1996, a GPS network was installed in June 1997 and re-occupied annually up to 2002. A general uplift ranging from 14 to 140 mm was determined at all stations of the network. The corresponding horizontal displacements ranged from 13 to 53 mm. The displacement vectors indicate that the island is undergoing extension towards the East, West and South. A two-source “Mogi” model combined with assumed motion along the Mandraki Fault was constructed to fit the observed deformation. The best-fit model assumes sources at a depth of 5500 m NW of the centre of the island and at 6500 m offshore ESE of Yali Island. DInSAR analysis using four pairs of images taken between May 1995 and September 2000 suggests that deformation was occurring during 1995 before the start of the seismic crisis. An amplitude of at least 56 mm along the slant range appeared for the period 1996 through 1999. This deformation is consistent with the two-source model invoked in DGPS modelling. Surface evidence of ground deformation is expressed in the contemporaneous reactivation of the Mandraki Fault. In addition, a 600 m long N-S trending irregular rupture in the caldera floor was formed between 2001 and 2002. This rupture is interpreted as the release of surface stress in the consolidated epiclastic and hydrothermal sediments of the caldera floor.     

Discussion on Characteristics of Crustal Deformation along the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea Seismotectonic Zone

INTRODUCTIONThe Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone has drawnextensive attentionfromseismologists and geologistssince it was determinedinthe1980’s(Zheng Binghua,et al.,1981).Ma Xingyuan,et al.(1989)consideredit asthe north boundaryof North China sub-block.Int…     

云南省祥(云)-临(沧)公路红土坡隧道变形原因及加固方案

云南省祥(云)-临(沧)公路红土坡隧道，在施工过程中变形严重，洞内数次冒顶、产生地面陷落，并诱发滑坡，严重影响了施工进度并造成较大经济损失。文章根据现场勘查及变形监控量测资料，详细论述了隧道变形特点，从地层岩性、构造、地应力条件、地下水作用、施工工艺、滑坡影响等方面综合分析了隧道变形原因。红土坡隧道变形是软弱的地层岩性、地应力条件改变、地下水作用、施工工艺以及滑坡偏压等各种因素共同作用的结果。且隧道变形诱发滑坡，滑坡又促使隧道进一步变形。基于此，文章提出了首先对滑坡进行支挡，再对隧道围岩进行加固的整治思路，并提出具体工程方案。整治工程实施后，红土坡隧道变形已得到完全控制，取得良好的治理效果。