Geography of asbestos contamination near the World Trade Center site

Despite the dust cleanup and indoor air testing program led by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and offered to all residents of Lower Manhattan (south of Canal Street), concern remains about local chemical residues from the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) buildings. Data on post-cleanup indoor airborne asbestos concentration, available from EPA Region 2, were analyzed to assess the possibility that the WTC site is the source of geographically concentrated rare post-cleanup exceedances of the health-based standard for asbestos. Recognizing that these rare exceedances may be attributable to sources other than the WTC disaster, and that these sources are very likely to exhibit geographic patterns, the data were analyzed using a spatial filter specification of the auto-Poisson probability model. Our analysis shows that ignoring geographic patterns latent in these exceedances affects the empirical probability of exceeding the health-based standards for airborne asbestos. We did not find any statistically-significant geographic pattern in the exceedance events that would indicate the WTC site as the source of the post-cleanup exceedances. Apparent geographic patterns may be due to the geographic variability in sampling intensity. Our analysis indicates the Residential Dust Cleanup Program lead by EPA Region 2 has been effective at reducing the concentration of air-borne asbestos in indoor air to below the health-based benchmark.     

Influence of the turbulence closure scheme on the finite-element simulation of the upwelling in the wake of a shallow-water island

A three-dimensional finite-element model is used to investigate the tidal flow around Rattray Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Field measurements and visual observations show both stable eddies developing at rising and falling tide in the wake of the island. The water turbidity suggests intense upwelling able to carry bed sediments upwards. Based on previous numerical studies, it remains unclear at this point whether the most intense upwelling occurs near the centre of the eddies or off the island's tips, closer to the island. All these studies resorted to a very simple turbulence closure, with a zero-equation model whereby the coefficient of vertical viscosity is computed via an algebraic expression. In this work, we aim at studying the influence of the turbulence closure on model results, with emphasis on the prediction of vertical motions. The Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 closure scheme is used and an increase in the intensity of vertical transport is observed. This increase is partly explained by the fact that the Mellor and Yamada model takes into account the hysteresis effect in the time variation of turbulence variables. The influence of the advection of turbulence variables is estimated to be negligible. By a better representation of transient coastal phenomena, the Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure improves the model to a significant degree.     

数字滤波器在高台地震台地震记录日常分析中的应用

简要介绍了滤波器的一般原理与Butterworth低通滤波器、高通滤波器和带通滤波器在高台地震台日常工作中的应用。     

Fast ensemble smoothing

Smoothing is essential to many oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological applications. There are two predominant classes of smoothing problems. The first is fixed-interval smoothing, where the objective is to estimate model states within a time interval using all available observations in the interval. The second is fixed-lag smoothing, where the objective is to sequentially estimate model states over a fixed or indefinitely growing interval by restricting the influence of observations within a fixed window of time ahead of the evolving estimation time. In this paper, we use an ensemble-based approach to fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing, and synthesize two algorithms. The first algorithm is a fixed-interval smoother whose computation time is linear in the interval. The second algorithm is a fixed-lag smoother whose computation time is independent of the lag length. The complexity of these algorithms is presented, shown to improve upon existing implementations and verified with identical-twin experiments conducted with the Lorenz-95 system. Results suggest that ensemble methods yield efficient fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing solutions in the sense that the additional increment for smoothing is a small fraction of either filtering or model propagation costs in a practical ensemble application. We also show that fixed-interval smoothing can perform as fast as fixed-lag smoothing, and it may not be necessary to use a fixed-lag approximation for computational savings alone.     

岩土力学参数空间变异性的集合卡尔曼滤波佶值

岩土参数具有结构性和随机性的空间变异特征，该特征导致岩土参数具有不确定性。以地质统计学作为岩土参数空间变异性分析的理论基础，将分布于研究区的岩土参数视为区域化变量，变异函数既描述了岩土参数整体的空间结构性变化，又描述了其局部的随机性变化，用变异函数理论模型作为描述岩土参数空间变异规律的数学模型。引入集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）分析方法，利用时空分布的观测数据，对岩土参数空间变异性进行估值。数值算例表明，EnKF能够有效地融合观测数据，较好地提供岩土参数空间变异性的估值。     

有色噪声作用下的抗差卡尔曼滤波

根据用GPS载波相位三差观测量进行动态定位或精密导航的需求,推导了动态噪声、观测噪声为有色噪声的抗差卡尔曼滤波公式。白噪声的抗差卡尔曼滤波是有色噪声的抗差卡尔曼滤波的特例,有色噪声的抗差卡尔曼滤波为白噪声的抗差卡尔曼滤波的推广。     

中国1950年代初地质科学发展的历史研究——李四光致章鸿钊书札整理

章鸿钊、李四光二位大师,都是中国地学界举足轻重的人物。新中国建立初期,为更好地服务国家经济社会发展,以李四光为代表的老一辈地质人,推动了新中国地质事业的艰难起步。本文收录了这一时期李四光致章鸿钊的六通书札,略做考释,个别书札附有章鸿钊回函,其中一则为其回函时所书写的底稿/草稿,更为难得。内容主要涉及建国初期地质机构设置等,可为此一时期研究提供一手珍贵历史资料。     

GPS结构振动监测数据滤波方法及其性能实验研究

使用GPS监测结构振动的目的在于提取振动信号特征,但GPS观测量受多种误差源的影响,因此,选用合理的数据处理方法有效地分离各误差项,对于提高GPS的监测精度具有重要意义。将Vondrak滤波、小波滤波、自适应FIR滤波和卡尔曼滤波等四种方法应用于资料序列中振动信号的分离,通过对模拟振动实验观测资料的分析表明:运用滤波法可提高GPS测量微小动态变形和变频振动信号的检测能力;4种滤波法均能有效地提高GPS监测结构振动的精度,其中,Vondrak滤波和小波滤波的性能相当,且优于自适应FIR和卡尔曼滤波。同时,在对各滤波法参数选择的优缺点进行分析的基础上,提出不同情况下选择滤波器的建议。     

基于中值滤波的灰色预测模型及其在大坝变形预测中的应用

在大坝变形监测中,当用GM(1,1)模型对稳定变化的变形数据序列进行预测时,效果较好。但是,影响坝体变形的因素多种多样,且处于动态变化之中,观测数据中将不可避免地存在着一些随机扰动,这些扰动使大坝的变形曲线发生异常波动。此时仅用GM(1,1)模型进行预测,其精度和可靠性就会下降。为此,本文提出一种基于中值滤波的GM预测模型,即先用中值滤波算法对发生波动的原始变形监测数据进行滤波处理,而后再建立GM模型进行灰色预测。实例证明,基于中值滤波的GM预测模型可以有效地提高大坝变形的预测精度。     

基于蒸散发数据同化的径流过程模拟

采用集合卡尔曼滤波算法,以遥感反演的蒸散发作为观测数据,构建一种基于新安江模型的蒸散发同化系统;根据同化后的蒸散发,采用粒子群算法估计新安江模型的土壤张力水蓄量,进而改进模型的径流模拟效果。选取地表能量平衡系统模型进行汉江流域蒸散发（ET_SEBS）反演,采用基于GRACE水储量距平数据的水量平衡蒸散发（ET_GRACE）进行验证,结果显示ET_SEBS总体表现好于蒸散发产品ET_GLDAS、ET_Zhang、ET_MODIS,且相关系数（R）、均方根误差（E_RMS）、偏差（B）为0.93、11.93 mm/月、-3.47 mm/月,表明SEBS模型能够较好地估算蒸散发。将同化方案在旬河流域进行应用,结果显示同化后径流的纳什效率系数（E_NS）为0.85,较同化前0.81明显提高,且模型对枯水期径流的低估问题有一定改善,对径流峰值模拟效果提高明显。