长江中游江汉—洞庭盆地全新世以来水文环境演变与人类活动

本文基于长江中游江汉—洞庭盆地18个钻孔岩性、沉积特征及年代数据,结合研究区考古遗址点时空分布特征,恢复研究区全新世以来水文环境演变过程,并探讨了区域水文环境演变的成因机制及其与人类活动的关系。结果表明,受东海海面上升和泥沙淤积等因素影响,距今11.5—5.5 ka,长江中游地区河湖水位呈上升趋势,随着新石器文化的发展及稻作农业活动的增加,人类文化聚落自山前平原地带逐渐向盆地平原中部扩展;距今5.5—4.0 ka,长江中游河湖水位有所下降,新石器晚期的屈家岭—石家河文化迅速发展,聚落数量增多,平原腹地聚落比例增加;距今4.0 ka前后,河湖水位再次有所上升,洪泛过程加剧,可能是石家河文化快速衰落的主要原因。     

Land use change in Bohai Rim: a spatial-temporal analysis

Land use change is one of the important aspects of global change[1-3]. The Bohai Rim is a hot spot of economic development in China, where land use changes remarkably. Analyzing land use change in this area is significant to the research of global change and regional sustainable land use. Although there has been much work undertaken on regional land use change in China, it was mainly on urban land use change[4-11], and few researches integrated remote sensing and GIS method. Based on data f…     

中国耕地转型与土地整理:研究进展与框架

土地利用转型研究是开展土地利用/覆被变化( LUCC) 综合研究的一条新途径。通过整合 社会和环境变化的时间尺度与历史背景, 开展中国耕地转型与土地整理方面研究, 属于IGBP 和 IHDP 联合发起的全球土地计划(GLP) 的重要研究内容。本文在综述土地变化科学( LCS) 的理论 与模型、土地利用转型、耕地变化与土地整理的研究进展基础上, 提出中国耕地转型与土地整理 的研究框架： 运用GIS 技术, 通过综合分析遥感解译的土地覆被数据及建国以来国土资源系统的 耕地面积变化数据, 探讨中国耕地变化的空间格局, 结合自然要素和社会经济要素分析耕地转型 的影响因子; 借鉴国外相关研究, 通过分析特定时期内中国耕地变化的影响因素及相应的管理政 策, 在了解中国耕地变化过程的基础上提出中国耕地转型的理论假设; 结合中国耕地的时空变化 模拟, 进而确定中国耕地变化的区域类型及其所处的转型阶段, 并以此作为指导我国耕地保护的 重要举措———土地整理的理论基础和科学依据。     

作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性,亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元（陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区）为研究对象,运用全球生态区模型（GAEZ）分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势,探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异,辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素,结果显示：（1） 1980—2015年间,陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×10⁴ t,小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×10⁴ t。（2） 关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大,陕北高原次之,秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小;陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势,关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小;关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势,陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。（3） 土地利用变化呈现减产效应,这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著,其次为陕北高原;气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加,使小麦生产潜力下降;气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同,在陕北高原表现为增产效应,在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。（4） 在陕北高原,气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因,气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素;在关中盆地,作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响,小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大,以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响;在秦巴山区,土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因,而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。     

Coping with water scarcity in Kashafroud G-WADI Basin,Iran: climate change or growing demands?

This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature, less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change.     

贵州乌蒙山区资源相对承载力的时空动态变化

贵州乌蒙山区是国家划定的18片贫困区之一,随着人口增长和社会经济发展的加速,山区人地资源矛盾日趋突出,已严重阻碍了乌蒙山区社会经济的可持续发展。运用并改进了相对资源承载力的研究思路和计算方法,研究了1995~2006年贵州乌蒙山区自然资源、经济资源、生活水平的相对承载力和综合承载力的时空动态变化过程。对于认清和把握乌蒙山区资源承载力变化规律,完善山区资源环境承载力研究成果具有重要指导意义。研究表明:贵州乌蒙山区人口严重超载,而承载人口的主要资源为土地资源,经济资源和生活水平承载力偏低;相对资源承载力空间差异显著,绝大多数县域综合承载力均处于超载状态。     

江苏淤泥质潮滩对海平面变化的形态响应

通过对江苏滨海平原淤泥质潮滩1980年以来19个固定潮滩断面112个测次滩面高程测量的统计分析，探讨典型淤泥质潮滩剖面形态对海平面变化的形态响应过程。结果表明，典型淤涨岸段海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面仍将淤积加高，但淤高幅度除多年平均高潮线附近滩面相对较大外，其余均较小，表明随海平面上升该滩带总体淤积速率将趋于减小；与此相反，多年平均潮位线以下滩面则趋于蚀低，且侵蚀强度较大，表明该滩带的侵蚀有加剧趋向，最终滩面总体形态将因上带不断淤高和下带不断蚀低而逐渐变陡，剖面上凸形态的曲率不断加大。曲型侵蚀岸段，海平面上升的效应则相反，海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面强烈蚀低；而多年平均潮位线以下滩面则强烈淤积加高，剖面的上凹形态最终将因上带不断蚀低和下带不断淤高而趋于平直。     

全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。     

Finding common ground? Spaces of dialogue and the negotiation of Indigenous interests in environmental campaigns in Australia

Critiquing the usefulness of cosmopolitanism this paper argues that we need a more nuanced and subtle understanding of how commonalities are found, created and maintained across difference. This paper uses two juxtapositions of perspective (around place and environment) to explore how such boundaries of difference can be negotiated. It uses an examination of the ways in which environmental groups in Australia have sought to negotiate Indigenous interests through creating spaces of dialogue and changing working practices. It is based on 30 interviews with both Indigenous and non-Indigenous activists across two case regions; Cape York (Queensland) and Barmah-Millewa (Victoria/New South Wales). Four issues were identified that have proved particularly contentious in negotiations to build collaborative campaigns: language; power and ownership; scale and timeframes; and economics. There are examples of both successes and ongoing problematic practices across these tensions. However there is also a growing mutual ownership of the issues. Moving beyond a colonial paternal sense of responsibility, to a dynamic and engaged mutuality of concern for both processes and outcomes has resulted in gradual, small, and progressive steps forward in Indigenous/non-Indigenous collaborative environmental campaigning.     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…