一次地形引起的特大暴雨雨量增幅过程分析

本文对9608号台风倒槽造成的庐山特大暴雨增幅进行了分析，结果表明，庐山的这次特大暴雨不仅与地形抬升作用有关，而且还与地形的冷中心效应有关。     

工程点偏离勘探线的偏差及其投影距的坐标增量计算法

本文介绍的方法与传统方法相比较主要是投影距的概念、几何意义、长度值及其个数不同。这里所谓的投影距,是指工程点i所在坐标格网的下限坐标纵、横线和勘探线相交的两个交点及其与工程点的连线,该线段在勘探线上的投影(△Xi,△Yi);实质上就是以上述两个交点为依据,计算工程点沿勘探线方向的坐标增量。其数值小,长度短,作图方便,无坐标格网的累积误差,而且有检核。这恰好弥补了传统方法的不足。又采用电算器程序计算,工作效率高。     

强震前的小震活动增强图象研究

以地震破裂理论和大震前区域地震活动水平增强事实为依据，选取地震频次和应变量两个统计参数，对新疆境内天山北缘、南缘地震带和西昆仑地震带共７５平方度区域进行时空扫描。根据两个参数与其前３年均值之比的大小组合，确定小震活动增强区，并分析其与目标地震的对应关系，提出地震预报判据。通过Ｒ值评分检验，说明小震活动增强图象方法具有较好的中期地震预报效能。     

Long-term changes in the tree radial growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency of Chuanxi spruce (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana</Emphasis>) in southwestern China

Elevated CO₂ level in the atmosphere is expected to improve the tree growth rates and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). Although current results inferring from tree rings found the tree growth decline in water-limited area, it is still unclear whether spruce trees in humid southwestern China benefit from the increasing CO₂. In this study, tree-ring width data were used to investigate the tree radial growth rate of Chuanxi spruce (Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana). Moreover, combining with the tree-ring carbon isotope date, we analyzed the physiological responses of Chuanxi spruce to rising CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere (Ca) associated with climatic change in southwestern China. From 1851 to 2009, iWUE of Chuanxi spruce rose by approximately 30.4%, and the ratio of atmospheric CO₂ to leaf intercellular CO₂ concentration (Ci/Ca) showed no significant trend in the study area. The result suggested that Chuanxi spruce used an active response strategy when Ca was significantly increased. iWUE showed a significant increasing trend in parallel with tree radial growth, indicating that the increasing iWUE resulted in an increase in radial growth. These results suggest that spruce forests in southwestern China have not shown declining trends under increasing Ca and climate change scenarios, in contrast to trees growing in water-limited areas. Therefore, spruce forests benefit from the increasing CO₂ in the atmosphere in the humid areas of southwestern China.     

INVESTIGATIONS ON MOISTURE TRANSPORTS, BUDGETS AND SOURCES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CHINA

In the context of global warming, apparent decdal-interdecdal variabilities can be detected in summer precipitation in southern China. Especially around the 1990s, precipitation in South China experienced a phase transition from a deficiency regime to an abundance regime in the early 1990s, while the Yangtze River Valley witnessed a phase shift of summer precipitation from abundance to deficiency in the late 1990s. Pertinent analyses reveal a close relationship between such decadal precipitation shifts and moisture budgets, which is mainly modulated by the meridional component. This relationship can be attributed to large-scale moisture transport anomalies. Further, the HYSPLIT model is utilized to quantitatively evaluate relative moisture contributions from diverse sources during different regimes. It can be found that during the period with abundant precipitation in South China, the moisture contribution from the source of Indochina Peninsula-South China Sea increased significantly, while during the deficient precipitation regime in the Yangtze River Valley, moisture from local source, western Pacific and Indochina Peninsula-South China Sea contributed less to precipitation. It means some new features of relative moisture contributions from diverse sources to precipitation anomaly in southern China took shape after 1990s.     

2010年7~8月东北地区暴雨过程的水汽输送特征分析

本文根据影响天气系统和雨带位置的不同将2010年7~8月东北地区出现的22个暴雨日划分成了三类暴雨,在以欧拉方法分析了各类暴雨的水汽输送和收支的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式(HYSPLIT v4.9),模拟计算了各类暴雨的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道以及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明,影响暴雨的水汽输送通道有三支,一支是沿西太平洋副高边缘东南气流的水汽输送,另一支是起源于南海北部向北偏东气流的水汽输送,第三支是西风带西北气流的水汽输送。第一类暴雨中,来自于西太平洋通道和南海通道的水汽输送大体相当,均很重要,两者可以占总水汽输送的87.4%。第二类暴雨中,水汽输送路径偏东,西太平洋通道的水汽输送贡献可达近70%。第三类暴雨中,虽然西太平洋通道水汽输送仍占主导地位,但北方通道的水汽输送也变得不可忽视。西太平洋通道的水汽沿途损失较小,并主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa及以下的大气之中,而南海通道的水汽沿途损失较多,与北方通道的水汽一样,主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa以上的大气之中。     

GPS卫星精密星历内插方法比较分析

借助GPS卫星精密星历,使用Lagrange多项式插值法和Chebyshev多项式拟合法内插出GPS卫星的瞬时位置,确定了插值精度与插值阶数的关系,并对这两种方法的优缺点进行了对比分析。计算结果表明:内插卫星瞬时坐标时所选取的插值阶数不应过高或过低,三维坐标分量在最佳插值精度时选取的插值阶数并不完全相同,Chebyshev多项式拟合法相比Lagrange多项式插值法的插值效果更好。因此,建议在优先选用Chebyshev多项式拟合法内插卫星瞬时坐标的同时,对三维坐标分量分别选取不同的插值阶数,以达到最优的插值精度。     

Euler–Lagrange equations for the spectral element shallow water system

We present the derivation of the discrete Euler–Lagrange equations for an inverse spectral element ocean model based on the shallow water equations. We show that the discrete Euler–Lagrange equations can be obtained from the continuous Euler–Lagrange equations by using a correct combination of the weak and the strong forms of derivatives in the Galerkin integrals, and by changing the order with which elemental assembly and mass averaging are applied in the forward and in the adjoint systems. Our derivation can be extended to obtain an adjoint for any Galerkin finite element and spectral element system.We begin the derivations using a linear wave equation in one dimension. We then apply our technique to a two-dimensional shallow water ocean model and test it on a classic double-gyre problem. The spectral element forward and adjoint ocean models can be used in a variety of inverse applications, ranging from traditional data assimilation and parameter estimation, to the less traditional model sensitivity and stability analyses, and ensemble prediction. Here the Euler–Lagrange equations are solved by an indirect representer algorithm.     

温度骤升对中华绒螯蟹( Eriocheir sinensis) 几种免疫化学指标的影响

以中华绒螯蟹为材料，将水体温度从14℃骤然升到28℃，然后在升温后9h内测定中华绒螯蟹肝胰腺中过氧化氢酶(CAT)、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)的活性和丙二醛(MDA)的含量以及血细胞的吞噬能力，比较温度变化对这些指标的影响。结果表明，肝胰腺中CAT和SOD的活性在温度升高后马上出现显著降低，在6h后开始趋于稳定；MDA的含量在升温后随时间的延长逐步增加；血细胞的吞噬力和吞噬指数在温度升高后有所增加并于3h时达到最高，然后逐渐下降到温度升高前的水平。该结果表明，温度的骤然升高会影响机体的生理功能和机体的免疫防御能力，导致自由基代谢的紊乱，这可能是诱导病害发生的环境因素之一。     

陆源污染物对连云港海域环境影响研究

应用沿深平均二维模型模拟了连云港海域的潮流场,分析了该海域的潮波特性,在此基础上,应用扩散方程对连云港海域的水污染扩散进行了数值模拟,得到了港域水体的半交换期;比较分析了西大堤对该水域水交换的影响;计算了港域水体的Lagrange余流场,并分析了其对污染物运移的影响,得到了港域几个典型位置的Lagrange轨迹;计算了港域的纳潮量,综合分析了港域水体的物理自净能力。