Quality Assessment and Forecast Sensitivity of Global Remote Sensing Observations

The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction(NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation(GPSRO)satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments(observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact(nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer(IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder(AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.     

Rationalizing tax increment financing in Chicago

A central problem in planning is how planners can be both technical experts and political actors sensitive to the moral consequences of planning. Rationality refers to the reasons for choosing a means to achieve an end; a rationality that considers the morality of means and ends is value rationality, and one that does not is instrumental rationality. Through the case of using Tax Increment Financing (TIF) to subsidize corporate headquarters relocation in Chicago, I follow City follows planners’ struggle with TIF policy and their engagement with instrumental and value rationality within a state that exercised an entrepreneurial planning strategy. This position meant that planners were constrained from acting value-rationally to consider and then take action on questions about the moral content of TIF projects. Nonetheless, planning staff developed an instrumentally-rational planning and policy exercise, which they performed as a way to channel their value-rational concerns about the assumption that every economic development project is an unambiguously valuable goal.     

The effect of temperature and salinity on survival and growth of Crangon uritai (Decapoda: Crangonidae) larvae reared in the laboratory

Larvae of the decapod Crangon uritai were reared in the laboratory in a factorial experiment employing three temperatures (9, 12 and 15 °C) and three salinities (29‰, 32‰ and 35‰) from hatching to the post‐larval stage. The effects of temperature and salinity on survival, intermolt period (IP) and molt increment (MI) were investigated. Larvae from one brood were subdivided into groups of 20 and reared in glass bowls containing filtered sea‐water at a number of temperature–salinity combinations. The reared larvae were transferred daily to the clean bowls prepared with newly hatched Artemianauplii, and number of molts and mortality within each bowl were recorded. The zoeal size (carapace length) was determined from exuvia and dead larvae, and the IP was also recorded. Larvae of C. uritai completed larval development only at 15 °C temperature. The first zoeal stage completed their development at all temperature–salinity combinations and exhibited the highest survival rate. IP at each stage increased with increasing size and greatly decreased with increasing temperature, and intermolt duration (range of days) increased with larval development especially at the lower temperature. Although the MI decreased with increasing size, it was little affected by temperature. This led to a better growth rate with increasing temperature.     

精密卫星钟差的内插方法研究

分析了几种精密卫星钟差的内插方法,将插值结果和IGS提供的数据相比较,采用统计量和差值图表来显示不同方法的插值结果,得到0.11～0.38 ns的精度.结果表明,内插方案的最佳选择取决于不同卫星钟类型的钟差变化特性以及插值方法本身的特点.     

一种目标快照差结合缓冲区分析的地形图面状要素变化检测方法

地形图变化检测一直是地理信息更新保持地形图现势性的难点之一。针对地形图面状要素的变化检测问题,在分析了目前常用的面状要素变化检测方法优缺点的基础上,提出一种基于目标快照差和缓冲区分析的地形图面状要素变化检测方法。该方法首先对配准后的地形图面状要素建立缓冲区;然后对于部分落在缓冲区、完全不在缓冲区的影像面状要素,计算其目标快照差;最后依据目标快照差的三元组值判定地物变化类型。实验结果表明,该方法不但能够有效地检测变化地物,而且能够明确给出地物的变化类型,降低了虚检率,检测精度较高。     

基于土壤湿度和年际增量方法的我国夏季降水预测试验

选取欧亚大陆9个关键区的土壤湿度年际增量作为预测因子,采用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)结合集合典型相关分析(ECC)方法建立集合预测模型,对我国东部夏季降水的年际增量进行预测,进而预测夏季降水。其中,1980~2004年的资料用于历史预测试验,而2005~2014年的资料用于独立样本预测试验。首先利用BP-CCA方法对9个因子分别建立单因子预测模型,然后采用ECC方法对9个预测因子按照不同的组合方式建立集合预测模型,并且对独立样本检验的效果进行了评估。结果表明,不同预测因子的组合对我国夏季降水均表现出一定的预测能力:东欧平原、贝加尔湖以北、我国河套地区及长江以南地区的土壤湿度对华北夏季降水预测效果较好;而巴尔喀什湖以北地区、我国西北地区、河套地区以及长江以南地区的土壤湿度对江淮夏季降水有较好预测效果;东欧平原、巴尔喀什湖以北地区以及我国河套地区的土壤湿度对华南降水预测技巧较高。这三组模型预测出的降水变化趋势与相应区域的观测结果较为一致,且预测评分(PS)均超过70分,距平相关系数(ACC)均为正值。研究表明土壤湿度因子中包含了对我国夏季降水有用的预测信号,可以考虑将土壤湿度应用于夏季降水的预测业务中。     

Stabilization procedures in coupled poromechanics problems: A critical assessment

Numerical solutions for problems in coupled poromechanics suffer from spurious pressure oscillations when small time increments are used. This has prompted many researchers to develop methods to overcome these oscillations. In this paper, we present an overview of the methods that in our view are most promising. In particular we investigate several stabilized procedures, namely the fluid pressure Laplacian stabilization (FPL), a stabilization that uses bubble functions to resolve the fine‐scale solution within elements, and a method derived by using finite increment calculus (FIC). On a simple one‐dimensional test problem, we investigate stability of the three methods and show that the approach using bubble functions does not remove oscillations for all time step sizes. On the other hand, the analysis reveals that FIC stabilizes the pressure for all time step sizes, and it leads to a definition of the stabilization parameter in the case of the FPL‐stabilization. Numerical tests in one and two dimensions on 4‐noded bilinear and linear triangular elements confirm the effectiveness of both the FPL‐ and the FIC‐stabilizations schemes for linear and nonlinear problems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

引入拉格朗日算子的最佳线性回归模型选择

基于同时考虑自变量和因变量测量误差的线性回归模型,首先将众多待选模型统一为附有约束条件的线性回归模型,然后采用含有多个备选假设的假设检验理论,并以拉格朗日算子构造假设检验统计量,提出最佳线性回归模型选择方法。实验结果表明,该算法可以获得符合观测数据实际的最佳线性回归模型,而且较改进后的线性假设法更简便。     

含不同半径孔洞的颗粒体模型的力学行为数值模拟

本文通过编程建立了非连续介质(颗粒体材料)模型,采用FLAC软件模拟了静水压力条件下不同半径的巷道围岩中的剪切应变增量、最小主应力及最大主应力的分布规律。研究表明,随着孔洞半径的增大,呈圆环形的剪切应变增量与最小主应力的高值区的圈数、呈辐射状的最大主应力的高值区的延伸范围及剪切应变增量的最大值都呈先慢后快的增长趋势。模型中最大的拉应力接近于在模型四周所施加的压应力,而最大的压应力约为所施加的压应力的5～10倍。模型内部的剪切应变增量、最小主应力及最大主应力的分布是高度不均匀的。具有较高的差应力的位置与具有较高的剪切应变增量的位置具有很好的一致性。     

导航电子地图数据增量更新研究

随着经济建设的快速发展,人们出行对地图的需求越来越大,特别是导航电子地图得到了广泛应用,随之而来的就是导航地图数据的定位精度和现势性问题,而动态增量更新是解决地图现势性的唯一途径,但是长期以来受终端硬件性能瓶颈的影响,进展不大,而当前随着微电子技术的迅猛发展,导航终端硬件设备的处理运算和存储能力的提高,导航仪硬件设备成...