中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值

在区域农田生态系统生产力模拟模型研究中，空间插值可以提供每个计算栅格的气象要素资料。然而，在众多的气象要素空间插值方法中，并没有一种适合每一个气象要素的普适的最佳插值方法。本文以全国７２５站１９５１～１９９０年整编资料中的旬平均温度和计算得来的６７５站的月乎均光合有效辐射日总量（ＰＡＲ）为数据源，选用了距离平方反比法（ＩＤＳ）、梯度距离平方反比法（ＧＩＤＳ）和普通克立格法（ＯＫ）等３种插值方法，进行了方法选取的探讨。交叉验证结果表明：３种方法中，温度插值的平均绝对误差（ＭＡＥ）的排序为ＩＤＳ＞ＯＫ＞ＧＩＤＳ，其值分别为２．１５℃、１.９０℃和 ｌ．３２℃；在作物生长季节（４－１０月），ＭＡＥ分别 ２０℃、１．９℃和 １.２℃ ，表明ＧＩＤＳ在温度插值方面更具实用价值；对于ＰＡＲ，ＭＡＥ的排序为ＯＫ＞ＧＩＤＳ＞ＩＤＳ，其值分别为 ０．８３ＭＪ／ｍ２、０７１ＭＪ／ ｍ２和 ０．４６ＭＪ／ｍ２，说明复杂的方法并不必然具有更好的效果。对这２个气象要素的空间分布特征分析表明：温度和ＰＡＲ的经、纬向梯度和高度梯度均具有明显的季节性变化特征；温度的纬向梯度有近似正弦曲线的较强的季节变化，表现为夏季高，而冬、春季低；温度的高度梯度年     

三维Kriging方法中的变异函数套合

三维属性建模是利用有限的采样数据, 通过插值或模拟的方法来重构地学属性在三维空间中的分布.将Kriging方法推广到三维空间, 从而演化为三维Kriging方法, 可以为三维属性建模提供可靠的手段.而三维Kriging方法面临的一大难题就是各向异性变异函数的套合.提出了一种简单通用的三维空间变异函数的套合方法.该方法以空间坐标基的变换为基础, 在套合时充分考虑轴向上变异差异的影响, 并由此提出各向异性变化率的概念; 论证了套合方法的可行性, 并通过地下水水质三维属性建模的实例对该方法进行了有效的验证.      

几种插值法在海洋磁力测量数据格网化中的应用

为获得反映海区磁异常分布的磁异常图,海洋磁力测量数据处理中需要将离散数据通过插值方法进行格网化。给出了几种常用的数据格网化方法,并采用磁异常均匀分布和复杂分布情况对方法有效性进行了评价。结论表明:磁异常分布越复杂,对插值方法的要求越严格,无论是磁异常均匀分布还是复杂分布情况,Kriging法的效果最好,建议在海洋磁力测量数据处理中使用。     

Network design for groundwater monitoring – a case study

 The applicability and usefulness of Geostatistics (kriging) as a tool for optimum selection of sites for monitoring groundwater levels has been demonstrated through a case study. The criterion used is the estimation of error variance. Groundwater level data (pre-monsoon 1994) obtained from 32 observation wells of Upper Kongal basin, Nalgonda District, A.P. (India) has been stochastically analyzed. The spatial distribution of water levels and its associated error variance is computed and the locations having maximum error variance are selected as additional sites for augmenting the existing observational well network. Received: 15 june 1998 · Accepted: 14 December 1998     

The storage potential of different surface coverings for various scale storms on Wu-Tu watershed,Taiwan

An impervious surface cover is continuously spreading over the Wu-Tu upstream watershed due to the concentrated population and raised economical demands, while that area also frequently suffers from heavy storms or typhoons during the summer season. The increased flood volume due to this extended imperviousness causes a greater potential hazard than that of the past. In order to evaluate the urbanized impacts on the watershed, a set of methods were used to estimate the changes of the watershed storage. This research chose 51 observed events from three raingauges on the Wu-Tu upstream watershed, Taiwan, to study the volume characteristic of abstracted rainwater. In the study, the block Kriging method was used to estimate the area rainfall and the hourly excess was derived through the non-linear programing (NLP). A total of 40 samples were calibrated through the hydrological model and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model using the optimum seeking method in order to search out and establish the best parameters that illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions at that time. Eleven cases were used to examine the established relationship of the parameters and the impervious coverings. A design storm approach was used to view the changes of the volume for various scale storms/typhoons because of the different degrees of urbanization. Then, a diagram was designed to show the relationships that exist among the runoff coefficient, return period, and impervious surface. The satisfactory results show that storage capability of rainwater for various scale storms on the Wu-Tu watershed would be respectively reduced about 42–156 cms in different decrements up to now.     

Local interpolation of coseismic displacements measured by InSAR

Coseismic displacements play a significant role in characterizing earthquake causative faults and understanding earthquake dynamics. They are typically measured from InSAR using pre- and post-earthquake images. The displacement map produced by InSAR may contain missing coseismic values due to the decorrelation of ASAR images. This study focused on interpolating missing values in the coseismic displacement map of the 2003 Bam earthquake using geostatistics with the aim of running a slip distribution model. The gaps were grouped into 23 patches. Variograms of the patches showed that the displacement data were spatially correlated. The variogram prepared for ordinary kriging (OK) indicated the presence of a trend and thus justified the use of universal kriging (UK). Accuracy assessment was performed in 3 ways. First, 11 patches of equal size and with an equal number of missing values generated artificially, were kriged and validated. Second, the four selected patches results were validated after shifting them to new locations without missing values and comparing them with the observed values. Finally, cross validation was performed for both types of patch at the original and shifted locations. UK results were better than OK in terms of kriging variance, mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE). For both OK and UK, only 4 out of 23 patches (1, 5, 11 and 21) showed ME and RMSE values that were substantially larger than for the other patches. The accuracy assessment results were found to be satisfactory with ME and RMSE values close to zero. InSAR data inversion demonstrated the usefulness of interpolation of the missing coseismic values by improving a slip distribution model. It is therefore concluded that kriging serves as an effective tool for interpolating the missing values on a coseismic displacement map.     

重庆岩溶区的气候时空变化特征分析及趋势预测

气候变化成为全球关注的热点问题.利用回归分析、Kriging空间插值等方法分析了基于气象数据的气候的时空变化,并采用小波变换对未来的气候进行了预测,得出以下结论:(1) 重庆岩溶区近40 a来年平均气温总体呈变冷趋势,变化速度为-0.043 ℃/(10 a),其中1980年代为最冷时期. (2) 重庆岩溶区近40 a的气温变暖主要发生在渝东北,与此相反,在渝中和渝东南的岩溶地区都为变冷区. (3) 近40 a来重庆岩溶地区的降水略有减少,贡献最大的是春季和秋季.对各个年代、各个地区来说,降水和气温的变化呈相反的变化,在最冷的1980年代,是降水最丰富时期.降水的主要减少地区在重庆北部,这个地区是气温变暖的地区.(4) 重庆岩溶区未来8 a的气温和降水从总体趋势上说,气温呈上升的趋势,而降水是减少的趋势.通过研究岩溶地区的气候变化及趋势的预测,可以增进气候变化与生态系统之间相互作用的理解,并为岩溶生态恢复和重建提供科学依据.     

Surfer软件中高程数据内插方法比较分析

为了获取模拟连续地表高程时的规则格网DEM数据,需要对离散的高程点数据进行内插计算,内插后计算精度的好坏与内插方法的选择密切相关。此处针对Surfer10.0软件提供的12种内插方法,选取1∶5万高程数据进行了离散点内插生成DEM的实验。先从基础性目视研究中得出一定结论,而后通过耗时、DEM三维可视化效果、残差计算等方面采用层层递进、逐一排除的方式对剩下各种内插方法进行比较研究,得出实用的结论。     

Geostatistical analysis of spatiotemporal variability of groundwater level fluctuations in Amman–Zarqa basin,Jordan: a case study

The main objective of this study was to assess the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater level fluctuations in the Amman–Zarqa basin, during the period 2001–2005. In the year 2003, as a consequence of war, there was a sudden increase in the population in this basin. Knowing that the basin is already heavily populated and witnesses most of the human and industrial activities in Jordan, this study was prompted to help make wise water resources management decisions to cope with the new situation. Data from 31 fairly distributed wells in the upper aquifer of the basin were subjected to geostatistical treatment. Kriging interpolation techniques have indicated that the groundwater flow directions remained almost constant over the years. The two main directions are SW–NE and E–W. Kriging mapped fluctuations have also showed that drop and rise events are localized in the basin. Forecasting possibilities for management purposes were tackled using autocorrelation analysis. The constructed autocorrelograms indicated, in general, the temporal dependence of seasonal water level fluctuations, and that forecasting can be carried out within a period of 3–21 months. Several suggestions were made to mitigate the drop and rise hazards in the detected sites.