Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“数字海底”--海底数据集成管理与可视化研究

针对目前"数字海底"建设中存在海底调查数据集成管理与三维可视化表达不足等问题,本文采用GIS技术,以黄河水下三角洲埕北海域为研究对象,利用地理空间数据集成理论与三维建模方法,建立了埕北海域三维海底空间数据库,实现了研究区域地形数据、地层数据、钻孔数据、表层沉积物数据的有效组织管理与可视化,并在此基础上,采用ArcGIS Engine 10.0,结合.NET平台,在Visual Studio 2010开发环境下,利用C#语言进行了二次开发,实现了基于C/S (Client/Server)架构的三维海底虚拟仿真系统的开发,设计了一套面向埕北海域的三维海底虚拟仿真原型系统。     

新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.     

数字近景摄影测量建筑容积率调查技术研究

城市建筑容积率是城市土地利用集约化程度的一个重要标志。基于遥感影像进行容积率调查的方法应用范围广,但误差较大。本文将数字近景摄影测量技术应用于精准容积率调查,研究了基于数字地图的单张像片参数以及顾及空间固定条件的立体像对前方交会方法,实现高精度的三维坐标获取。本文将普通数码相机和PDA相结合,辅助以GPS和全站仪等,实现了价格低廉、应用灵活快速的容积率调查集成系统,能够现场完成数据采集、存储。     

地面检校场的非量测型数码相机检校

由于相机检校作为非量测型数码相机应用于摄影测量前的必经步骤,其精度直接决定着后续测图的精度,因此针对传统的相机检校方法不能较真实地反映相机的物理状态、检校精度不高的问题,该文给出了基于地面检校场进行检校的流程,并以和静县数据为例,将该方法的检校精度与基于室内三维检校场以及基于纯平液晶显示器的检校精度进行了对比。实验表明:经该方法检校出来的相机参数精度更高,能够满足大比例尺测图要求。     

A Sensitivity Analysis of the Waterline Method of Constructing a Digital Elevation Model for Intertidal Areas in ERS SAR scene of Eastern England

A sensitivity analysis of the waterline method of constructing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of an intertidal zone using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modelling is described. Variation in vertical height accuracy as a function of beach slope is investigated using a set of nine ERS Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of the Humber/Wash area on the English east coast acquired between 1992 and 1994. Waterlines from these images are heighted using a hydrodynamic tide-surge model and interpolated using block kriging. On 1:500 slope beaches, an average block height estimation standard deviation of 18–22 cm is achieved. This rises to 27 cm on 1:100 slope beaches, and 32 cm on 1:30 slope beaches. The average heighting error at different slopes is decomposed into components due to waterline heighting error, inadequate sensor resolution and interpolation inaccuracy. It is shown that, at 1:500 slope, waterline heighting error and interpolation inaccuracy are the main error sources, whilst at 1:30 slope, errors due to inadequate sensor resolution become dominant. The ability of the technique to generate intertidal DEMs for almost the entire coastal zone in a complete ERS SAR scene covering 100×100 km is demonstrated.     

中国省会城市国际化水平比较研究

城市国际化不仅是一个结果更是一个与其他国际城市逐步接轨的过程,在此过程中,通过与其他城市的物质、文化与信息的交流,实现城市发展利益的最大化。在目前城市国际化比较研究的基础上,针对现有方法的不足,运用因子分析法,进行了分因素排名比较分析和综合得分排名的分类比较分析,最后根据综合得分通过类间距法将所有省会城市分为三类,并提出各类城市在不同城市国际化发展阶段应选择不同的发展策略。     

小波分析在地震资料去噪中的应用

本文阐述了小波变换和去噪的基本原理,根据模拟信号和实际地震信号的频谱分析,讨论了如何选择小波基,及去噪中的阈值问题,从小波分解出发,利用多尺度分解对地震资进行分析,并基于MATLAB语言和小波工具箱,实现了对地震资料的去噪.     

POPULATION EXPANSION IN CHINA''''S METROPOLISES AND ITS SCALE-CONTROL

Metropolises are centers of politics, economy, culture and information, and also economic growth poles in comparatively large areas. After 1949, China's urban structure have changed greatly, from original "pyramid" shape into "upside -down pyramid" shape, that is, more megalopolises and metropolises, fewer medium-sized and small cities. The most distinguishing feature of urban population growth was the remarkable increase of population in megalopolises and metropolises. The key reason for urban population expansion is to want to obtain the benefits of scale -agglomeration economy of metropolises. The number of urban functions directly determines the quality and quantity of urban population. Metropolises appeal not only agricultural population but also the population of medium-sized and small cities, which put much more population pressure on metropolises. The ideal goals of scale-control of metropolitan population are discussed in terms of economy, society and ecollogy. In order to control the metropoli     

综合物探在山东省招远市原疃地区金矿找矿中的应用

山东省招远市西北部原疃地区地理位置特殊,位于区域上两大断裂金矿带之间的玲珑复式岩体的核部,与西北部的郭家岭花岗闪长岩疑似为断层接触关系,金矿成矿条件优越。运用激电中梯、高精度磁法测量,基本查明了区内与金成矿有关的岩体、断裂构造的分布情况,圈定激电异常7处,其中1处异常经验证为矿致异常。应用CSAMT,SIP方法对矿带的深部进行探测,确定其沿走向及倾向均有一定延伸,对其深部异常进行钻探验证,证明深部异常仍为矿致异常。综合找矿方法在此次找矿过程中发现了矿致异常,缩小了找矿靶区,为钻探工程的部署提供了依据。