T639和德国模式对新疆地区大降水预报的检验

对T639和德国数值预报模式(简称德国模式)的降水预报产品进行了分类检验,挑选新疆2011年6场大降水过程分别进行晴雨、大雨(雪)、暴雨(雪)对比分析,了解了降水模式产品误差并为业务中选择较好的预报产品提供了依据。结果表明:两种模式对预报过程降水落区和强降水中心都有较好的指示意义,在过程累计降水预报中,德国模式的晴雨预报准确率为80.49%,高于T639模式;大雨(雪)预报的准确率两种模式接近,大约为44%;T639模式暴雨预报的准确率为29.07%,明显高于德国模式。在逐24 h降水预报中,两种模式都以48～72 h的预报准确率为最高。     

‘I’ve got my Sat Nav,it’s alright’: Users’ Attitudes towards,and Engagements with,Technologies of Navigation

The use of qualitative research techniques in a largely quantitative cartographic domain is opening up myriad ways to explore users’ engagements technologies of navigation. This study draws on young UK-based students’ real words and life experiences as they engage with Satellite Navigation and other wayfinding technologies during first-time visits to new places to reflect on the nature of the changing relationships between self, navigational object, space and place.     

MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION AND PUBLIC POLICY IN SCOTTISH CITIES: AN OVERVIEW

Because of their intensive need for face-to-face contacts, producer services have, historically, been found at the core of the central business district (CBD). However, it has been suggested that advances in information technologies could lead to the erosion of the CBD's economic base, rendering face-to-face contacts obsolete and enabling producer services to suburbanize. Although a considerable amount of empirical work has been done on the suburbanization of these activities in North America, the same is not true of France. In this paper, we adopt an original methodology to study the role played by face-to-face contacts in the spatial distribution of producer services in the Île-de-France region between 1978 and 1997. Our findings confirm that producer services did indeed suburbanize during the study period. Nonetheless, this suburbanization was multicentric, rather than scattered, suggesting that face-to-face contacts remain an important factor in the location of such services.     

Internal Migration in Decline

Internal migration rates in the United States have been steadily declining for at least twenty-five years: In 1984, 6.4 percent of the population moved between counties but by 2006—well before the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression—annual intercounty migration rates had already declined to 4.7 percent and by 2010 to 3.5 percent. Despite the implications of the migration decline, it is poorly recognized and understood. The analysis shows that over the last thirty years, three broad trends have combined to pull migration rates dramatically lower: an increase in dual-worker couples, increased household indebtedness, and the widespread rise of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The first two are probably linked, as households have responded to decreasing real income over the last quarter-century through greater female labor force participation and maintaining current levels of consumption by borrowing ever more heavily from the equity in their homes. Thus, although this analysis shows that the decline in migration rates is not directly linked to the Great Recession, the migration decline is surely linked to the broader macroeconomic shifts that gave rise to it. With respect to the role of ICTs, it is not surprising that as ICTs have transformed nearly everything else across society, their use has affected migration rates. It is presumed that ICTs are providing new forms of mobility that are substituting for migration.     

浙西北萧山—诸暨地区晚中生代侵入岩地球化学特征及构造意义

浙西北萧山—诸暨地区晚侏罗世末期花岗(石英)闪长岩与早白垩世末期(辉石)闪长岩具有以下地球化学特征:低硅、贫碱、富钙镁铁,弱负铕异常,稀土配分曲线右倾,富集K,Rb,Ba,Th,U等,亏损Nb,Ta等,Sr,Ti亏损不明显。晚侏罗世末期花岗岩与早白垩世末期花岗(斑)岩均具有高硅、富碱、贫钙镁,强负铕异常的特征;晚侏罗世侵入岩具"V"型稀土配分曲线,强富集K,Rb,Th,U等,相对富集Nb,Ta,强亏损Ba,Sr,Ti等特征;早白垩世侵入岩具右倾稀土配分曲线,富集K,Rb,Th,U等,亏损Nb,Ta,Sr,Ti,Ba不亏损等特征。岩石构造地球化学图解分析表明,晚侏罗世末期I-A型花岗岩类成岩构造环境具有从俯冲挤压碰撞作用向后碰撞或后造山作用演化的特征;早白垩世末期(高分异)I型花岗岩类岩石主要与火山-次火山喷发-侵入作用关系密切,成岩构造环境主要与区域伸展作用有关。     

40Ar/39Ar and ESR/U-series dates for Guado San Nicola,Middle Pleistocene key site at the Lower/Middle Palaeolithic transition in Italy

The Middle Pleistocene archaeological site of Guado San Nicola was discovered in 2005 in a fossil fluvial terrace of the Volturno River, close to the village of Monteroduni, Molise, Italy. Palaeontological remains and lithic artefacts, including both handaxes and Levallois, discoid and opportunistic debitage, were recovered in fluvial and slope sediments rich in volcanoclastic materials. This site includes four distinct human occupation levels. In two of them both “shaping-façonnage” and “knapping-débitage” technologies are highlighted, placing this site at the Lower/Middle Palaeolithic transition.In the present study, geochronological analyses by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar on single-crystal and ESR/U-series on teeth were performed to precise the chronological framework of the occupations. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data obtained securely bracket the human occupation levels at the transition between the interglacial and glacial marine isotopic stages MIS 11 (i.e. 400 ± 9 ka) and MIS 10 (i.e. 345 ± 9ka). The weighted mean age obtained from ESR/U-series dating of six teeth (i.e. 364 ± 36 ka) is in very good agreement with the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar results. The radio-isotopic constraints we presented place the Guado San Nicola site as one of the earliest testimonies of Levallois debitage in Western Europe and confirm the potential and accuracy of paleo-dosimetric methods to date Middle Pleistocene sites.     

珠海市重点项目移动办公系统设计与应用

重点项目在一定时期内对社会经济发展起着决定作用,珠海市为建设发展成为珠江西岸核心城市,确立了一批关乎经济、民生,需要重点建设、重点监控的战略性保障项目。为方便领导及相关人员快速准确地进行重点项目现场协调、指导和监督,笔者结合工作经验,根据重点建设项目的特点,以珠海市为例设计并实现了重点项目地理信息辅助移动办公系统,为建设项目的顺利进行提供支持。     

泌阳凹陷安棚油田核三段储层裂缝成因、期次及分布研究

根据定向取心、成像测井、常规岩心及薄片资料对安棚油田核三段储层天然裂缝特征进行分析的基础上,通过对20个裂缝充填物的稳定同位素测定,5组样品的声发射实验,结合岩心裂缝特征、地质构造历史等,确定出核三段地层中裂缝为区域性裂缝,以垂直或高角度张性缝为主,成组出现,产状稳定,不受局部鼻状构造控制,确定出裂缝有4个破裂期,主要破裂期为第二期。从岩石力学性质、刚性岩石分布情况和岩(砂)层厚度、构造应力场强度等方面入手,系统地讨论了控制裂缝发育的地质因素。区域应力场强度与裂缝发育程度有密切关系,是影响裂缝发育的主要外因,而岩性、岩石密度和厚度是影响裂缝发育的主要内因。采用构造滤波法、应力场模拟法、主曲率法对研究区Ⅶ、Ⅷ、Ⅸ油组的平面裂缝分布进行了预测和评价。     

松辽盆地朝阳沟油田储层裂缝发育特征及控制因素

裂缝是朝阳沟油田储层的有效储集空间和主要渗流通道,其复杂分布严重影响该油田的开发生产。通过区域构造研究与岩心构造解析,结合地表露头和薄片观察,分析了区内裂缝的发育特征、成因机制及控制因素。该储层主要发育近SN向、近EW向、NW向和NE向4组构造裂缝,裂缝以低角度裂缝为主,主要包括挤压褶皱作用下形成的顺层滑脱裂缝和与逆冲挤压作用有关的低角度剪切裂缝,高角度裂缝主要包括扩张裂缝和中高角度斜缝。裂缝的充填及含油性表明它们大部分为有效缝,并反映在地层条件下的储渗作用。明水组沉积末期的反转构造期是裂缝的主要形成时期,主要形成近SN向和近EW向构造裂缝。裂缝的发育程度受岩性、层厚、断层、褶皱、深度等因素的控制,不同岩性,裂缝发育程度也不同;裂缝的平均间距与裂隙化的岩层厚度呈较好的线性相关关系;绝大多数构造裂缝与断层作用相关;褶皱的不同形成阶段发育不同类型的裂缝;随深度增加,裂缝发育程度明显降低。     

中国东部中生代软流圈上涌与构造 岩浆 矿集区

在深入研究华南地震层析成像的基础上,按照大地构造环境和软流圈上涌形状和热度,将中国东部(大陆)中生代上地幔中岩石圈 软流圈构造划分为3类:(1)陆台区(华北块和扬子块),软流圈沿古裂陷上涌,其柱头上方形成幔壳混熔花岗质岩及相应Au、Cu、Mo、Pb Zn等矿集区,并于软流圈与岩石圈厚区之陡接触带形成中基性杂岩及相应Fe矿集区;(2)褶皱带中心区(南岭及其延伸带),软流圈在适当深度、热量充足、较大范围内“平卧”,因热传导而致使地壳内物质部分重熔,形成壳源型花岗质岩及相应的W、Sn、稀有元素矿集区;(3)褶皱带边缘区(大兴安岭南部及华南南缘),在软流圈上涌柱上方形成幔源或幔壳混熔的花岗质岩,相应为Cu、Au、Pb Zn、Mo、Ag矿集区。总之,软流圈上涌是中生代构造、岩浆、矿集区形成之根源。