中国地区硫酸盐气溶胶的第一间接气候效应研究

将区域气候模式(RegCM3)与对流层大气化学模拟(TACM)耦合,建立区域气候化学模拟系统(RegCCMS),用以模拟中国地区硫酸盐气溶胶的空间分布、第一间接辐射强迫及其气候效应。研究结果表明,中国地区硫酸盐气溶胶主要集中在四川、河南、山东等地,秋冬季浓度较高而夏季浓度较低。1月份浓度最高值中心在四川,最高达到50μg/m3,而7月则出现在河南等地,浓度最高达10μg/m3。1、4、7、10月硫酸盐气溶胶的第一间接辐射强迫全国平均值分别为-1.80、-2.75、-3.43、-1.83 W/m2,局部地区可达-12 W/m2。敏感性试验结果表明,硫酸盐气溶胶的第一间接效应引起气温降低,降水减少,在不同季节和地区气温和降水的变化存在明显差异。     

阿拉善高原荒漠植被组成分布特征及其环境解释 Ⅴ.一年生植物层片物种多样性及其分布特征

阿拉善荒漠常见的37种一年生植物,隶属于9科27属,可划分一年生藜科、一年生禾草、一年生蒿类和一年生杂类草共4个类群,主要由藜科的猪毛菜类构成,占总数的将近一半,其次为禾本科的小禾草类和菊科的蒿类。阿拉善荒漠一年生植物层片由12种区系地理成分组成,其中以亚洲温带、亚洲荒漠成分为主,阿拉善特有成分次之,表现出阿拉善一年生植物层片是作为古地中海旱生植物后裔的古老性和温带干旱荒漠的性质。通过Twinspan分类、CCA排序以及一年生草本物种多样性与环境因子的逐步回归,发现影响阿拉善荒漠一年生植物层片组成及分布特征的关键环境因素包括:第一类是水、热和光照条件,主要包括年均降水量、积温和光照时间;第二类是土壤的粉粒含量;第三类是表征土壤盐碱化程度的指标,包括SO24-、Mg2+、电导率、HCO3-。气候,特别是降水的波动直接决定着一年生草本植物在荒漠群落中层片构成,此外土壤质地也是一年草本植物定居和繁衍的重要基础,在一定的程度上支持了荒漠草地生态修复的理论假说。     

Compositional Data Analysis of Geological Variability and Process: A Case Study

Developments in the statistical analysis of compositional data over the last two decades have made possible a much deeper exploration of the nature of variability and the possible processes associated with compositional data sets from many disciplines. In this paper, we concentrate on geochemical data. First, we explain how hypotheses of compositional variability may be formulated within the natural sample space, the unit simplex, including useful hypotheses of sub-compositional discrimination and specific perturbational change. Then we develop through standard methodology, such as generalised likelihood ratio tests, statistical tools to allow the systematic investigation of a lattice of such hypotheses. Some of these tests are simple adaptations of existing multivariate tests but others require special construction. We comment on the use of graphical methods in compositional data analysis and on the ordination of specimens. The recent development of the concept of compositional processes is then explained, together with the necessary tools for a staying-in-the-simplex approach, such as the singular value decomposition of a compositional data set. All these statistical techniques are illustrated for a substantial compositional data set, consisting of 209 major oxide and trace element compositions of metamorphosed limestones from the Grampian Highlands of Scotland. Finally, we discuss some unresolved problems in the statistical analysis of compositional processes.     

Gravity gradient modeling using gravity and DEM

A model of the gravity gradient tensor at aircraft altitude is developed from the combination of ground gravity anomaly data and a digital elevation model. The gravity data are processed according to various operational solutions to the boundary-value problem (numerical integration of Stokes’ integral, radial-basis splines, and least-squares collocation). The terrain elevation data are used to reduce free-air anomalies to the geoid and to compute a corresponding indirect effect on the gradients at altitude. We compare the various modeled gradients to airborne gradiometric data and find differences of the order of 10–20 E (SD) for all gradient tensor elements. Our analysis of these differences leads to a conclusion that their source may be primarily measurement error in these particular gradient data. We have thus demonstrated the procedures and the utility of combining ground gravity and elevation data to validate airborne gradiometer systems.     

Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia

Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects for the case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km² of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets.     

Dynamic interaction of twin vertically overlapping lined tunnels in an elastic half space subjected to incident plane waves

The scattering of plane harmonic P and SV waves by a pair of vertically overlapping lined tunnels buried in an elastic half space is solved using a semi-analytic indirect boundary integration equation method. Then the effect of the distance between the two tunnels, the stiffness and density of the lining material, and the incident frequency on the seismic response of the tunnels is investigated. Numerical results demonstrate that the dynamic interaction between the twin tunnels cannot be ignored and the lower tunnel has a significant shielding effect on the upper tunnel for high-frequency incident waves, resulting in great decrease of the dynamic hoop stress in the upper tunnel; for the low-frequency incident waves, in contrast, the lower tunnel can lead to amplification effect on the upper tunnel. It also reveals that the frequency-spectrum characteristics of dynamic stress of the lower tunnel are significantly different from those of the upper tunnel. In addition, for incident P waves in low-frequency region, the soft lining tunnels have significant amplification effect on the surface displacement amplitude, which is slightly larger than that of the corresponding single tunnel.     

Indirect approach to invariant point determination for SLR and VLBI systems: an assessment

We assess the accuracy of some indirect approaches to invariant point (IVP), or system reference point, determination of satellite laser ranging (SLR) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) systems using both observed and simulated survey data sets. Indirect IVP determination involves the observation of targets located on these systems during specific rotational sequences and by application of geometrical models that describe the target motion during these sequences. Of concern is that most SLR and VLBI systems have limited rotational freedom thereby placing constraint on the reliability of parameter estimation, including the IVP position. We assess two current approaches to IVP analysis using survey data observed at the Yarragadee (Australia) SLR and the Medicina (Italy) VLBI sites and also simulated data of a large rotationally constrained (azimuth-elevation) VLBI system. To improve reliability we introduce and assess some new geometric conditions, including inter-axis, inter-circle and inter-target conditions, to existing IVP analysis strategies. The error component of a local tie specifically associated with the indirect determination of SLR and VLBI IVP is less than 0.5 mm. For systems with significant rotational limits we find that the inter-axis and inter-circle conditions are critical to the computation of unbiased IVP coordinates at the sub-millimetre level. When the inter-axis and inter-circle geometric conditions are not imposed, we retrieve biased vertical coordinates of the IVP (in our simulated VLBI system) in the range of 1.2–3.4 mm. Using the new geometric conditions we also find that the axis-offset estimates can be recovered at the sub- millimetre accuracy (0.5 mm).     

Minimum principle and related numerical scheme for simulating initial flow and subsequent propagation of liquefied ground

The problem of predicting the evolution of liquefied ground, modelled as a viscoplastic material, is addressed by combining a minimum principle for the velocity field, which characterizes such an evolution, and a time step integration procedure. Two different numerical schemes are then presented for the finite element implementation of this minimum principle, namely, the regularization technique and the decomposition‐co‐ordination method by augmented Lagrangian. The second method, which proves more accurate and efficient than the first, is finally applied to simulate the incipient flow failure and subsequent spreading of a liquefied soil embankment subject to gravity. The strong influence of liquefied soil residual shear strength on reducing the maximum amplitude of the ground displacement is particularly emphasized in such an analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.